Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1115696548933976064

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ras has had outliers (in both directions) before.  They usually correct within a few days.

[GeorgiaModerate]

California: Quinnipiac, April 3-8, 482 RV

(Before anyone calls this a useless poll, its purpose was to poll the Democratic primary.  These questions were just extras.)

Approve 30
Disapprove 64

one of the president's worst grades in any Quinnipiac University nationwide or state poll since he was elected.

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you definitely not vote for him?

Definitely yes 21
Consider 14
Definitely not 59

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 6-9, 1500 adults including 1267 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+1)

RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031148327616519
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1116031431027896321

Definitely+Probably vote 42/54



https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2019/04/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-little-change-in-views-of-trump-as-mueller-probe-ends-opinions-shift-on-confidence-in-mueller-on-state-issues-majorities-support-legal-marijuana-higher-special/

Favorability ratings:
Donald Trump   45/51

This supports a trend in recent polls that I find quite interesting.  The intention to vote for or against Trump has been running several points below his approval rating in most polls that ask both questions.  Generally for an incumbent, I would expect them to get a vote share that's at least as high as their approval numbers, and probably a bit better; voters might not be crazy about an incumbent, but might not dislike him enough to turn him out.  In Trump's case, it may be that some voters think he's done an OK job as President, but are turned off enough by his personality, scandals, and other baggage that they'd rather have someone new.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC Poll for Georgia:

Trump approval:

Approve: 40
Disapprove: 56

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-poll-kemp-approval-ratings-the-rise-trump-still-underwater/5EDalXwOSNvonieS90ixEN/

I doubt his approval is actually anywhere near that low but I am more optimistic about GA flipping than NC. Call me crazy but I think GA is a legitimate tossup.

Note that the poll question was actually favorability rather than job approval (the article is sloppy with their terminology).

I think Georgia isn't quite a tossup yet (it might be with the right Democratic candidate).  But it's certainly in play.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Me, after reading comments after an obvious joke >>>

One does not joke with stats.

83% of professional statisticians disagree with this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, April 11-14, 914 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 49 (-1)

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 51, Trump 48
O’Rourke 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 49, Trump 51
Warren 48, Trump 52

[GeorgiaModerate]

USC Dornsife/LA Times, March 15-April 15, 5165 adults including 5076 RV

Adults:

Approve 34
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 18
Strongly disapprove 39

RV:

Approve 35
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 18
Strongly disapprove 39

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trumps long range trend has been up.
2015- 35% favorable, losing to Hillary 35%-55%
2016- still 35% favorable, but within striking range (3-5) of Hillary
2016 (postelection)- 40% favorable, 40% approval
2017- high 30's to low 40's favorable
2018- low 40's to mid 40's favorable
2019- rising again

Same in the 2016 campaign. He started out losing the Iowa caucus to Ted Cruz. Then he started consistently winning, but in the 20's and low 30's. Then he started getting into the high 30's. Then he started getting 40's. Then he started getting 50's and his last opponents dropped out.

As the brokerage commercials say, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I was polled in Michigan -- Presidency, Senate, Congress, and higher taxes for highways.

Who was the pollster?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/chucktodd/status/1118488794825666560

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, April 11-14, 1108 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 19 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

Lots of Russia-related questions too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here are the pre-report baselines we can use for future comparisons:

538: Approve 42.1, Disapprove 52.9, Net -10.8

RCP: Approve 43.6, Disapprove 52.7, Net -9.1

The above averages were from the night before Barr's summary was released.  More than 3 weeks later, we're on the eve of the actual (though redacted) report being released, and the averages have changed...not much.

538: Approve 41.8 (-0.3), Disapprove 53.1 (+0.2), Net -11.3 (-0.5)

RCP: Approve 43.6 (nc), Disapprove 51.9 (-0.8 ), Net -8.3 (-0.8 )

RCP doesn't show the AP/NORC poll yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another quality pollster with not much movement:

Fox News, April 14-16, 1005 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, April 1-7, 1212 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 58 (nc)

Strongly approve 19 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (nc)

Lots of interesting issue-related questions in this one.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos / Reuters, 1005 adults, Apr 18-19:
https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-TRUMP-RUSSIA-POLL/010091JB28J/Mueller%20Investigation%20Report%2004%2019%202019%20TRENDED%20PID.pdf

Approve: 37 (-6)
Disapprove: 56 (+2)

Oof.

Terrible poll for Trump.  Impeachment went from 39/49 in March to 40/42 now.  Whether he should resign went from 46/46 to 47/37.  Even 22% of Republicans said Trump should resign!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters also tends to be somewhat bouncy.  Let's see if it continues to show similar results for Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PSB Research, March 12-21, 1000 adults.  538 gives this pollster a B- rating, but I don't see a recent prior from them to compare.

Approve 42
Disapprove 58

Strongly approve 20
Strongly disapprove 42

If President Donald Trump runs for President again in the 2020 election, do you plan to vote for him?

Yes 29
No 56
Not sure 15

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG monthly economic survey, April 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

R: 88/11
D: 9/87
I: 36/60

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harvard Institute of Politics Young Americans poll

March 8-20, 3022 young adults (age 18-29).  55% of these (about 1660) said they will definitely vote in 2020 and were designated likely voters.


Party ID:

All: D 39, R 23, I 36 (I breakdown: Lean D 21, Lean R 26, neither 59)
LV: D 50, R 26, I 24 (I breakdown: Lean D 34, Lean R 22, neither 43)


Trump approval:

All: 29/68
LV: 29/70


Other approvals:

Pelosi: 36/61 (LV: 42/57)
D's in Congress: 47/51 (LV: 53/46)
R's in Congress: 29/68 (LV: 29/70)


Lots of other interesting questions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 19-21, 1992 RV (1-week change)

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 57 (+6)

R: 81/17 (84/15)
D: 10/88 (11/85)
I: 32/58 (38/53)

Strongly approve 20 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+6)

Vote to re-elect Trump?

Definitely yes 24 (-5)
Probably yes 10 (nc)
Probably no 8 (-1)
Definitely no 49 (+5)

I believe this is the first time in 2019 that Trump has been under 40 in a Morning Consult RV poll.

EDIT: the 39% equals his all-time low approval in this poll and the net -18 is a record.

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL, 538 adjusted that puppy *down* to 37%.

MC has usually been kind of favorable for Trump, so it's not surprising.  This could be an outlier, of course.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1120698974686646272

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation (monthly), April 11-16, 1203 adults

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)