Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

BATTLEGROUND MONTANA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND NEBRASKA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND UTAH!!!!!

Iowa at -14, Virginia at -6, Arizona at -4.

Seems legit.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Are these actual tracking polls?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

BATTLEGROUND MONTANA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND NEBRASKA!!!!!
BATTLEGROUND UTAH!!!!!

Iowa at -14, Virginia at -6, Arizona at -4.

Seems legit.

Trump's approval in IA has been consistently low and his approval in AZ relatively high.

Yeah, IA has to be at least a D+5 trend this time around. Maybe more.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1181316432312881152

Why is it always 17 points? That's the same number he used to brag about how he helped Dan Bishop's polling.

Maybe it's his lucky number or something.

So many good numbers. The numbers are great. They're really good. No President has gotten numbers this good. I think if you look at other Presidents in history, Obama, Reagan, Lincoln, they never had numbers this good. We're doing great. Not a lot of people know this, and the dishonest media won't ever tell you. Believe me.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump's key to victory last time was winning with people who disapproved of both him and Clinton. The disapprove and pro-impeachment numbers are almost exactly the same in a lot of these polls. I don't think he's going to be able to do that this time. If you think he should be impeached you're not going to vote for him.

If I were in the rank and file of the GOP I would be screaming right now to get Trump off of primary ballots in as many states as possible. Or take whatever means necessary to prevent his nomination.

There will be no Halloween miracle. The damage is done.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Independent voters support impeachment AND removal 49%-41%. That's significant.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rassy had Trump at 52%/46% before Ukraine. Now it's 45%/52%.

Are we going to see Trump's 538 net approval fall below -20 for the first time since 2017?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Impeachment is definitely firing up the base and creating some sympathy, though after today's shenanigans at the hearing I doubt it will last.

It's good strategy, honestly. Shouting lies in unison at full volume is about all they have left. The base is looking for any shred of plausible deniability they can get their hands on.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rasmussen is at 43/54 today, which is the worst since it was 43/57 on Feb. 1.  The approval number hasn't been lower since it hit 42 a couple of days in Jan. 2018.

The 538 averages for all polls and RV/LV-only polls are also now at their worst levels for Trump since the government shutdown.

Rasmussen had him at 52/47 before The Phone Call dropped. -9 approve, +7 disapprove. That's pretty brutal but a remarkably small change given it is now considered solid fact that the president attempted to sell out the country for a political favor from a foreign leader.

This is the kind of thing that would drop an ordinary president into Bush 2008 territory.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Rasmussen is at 43/54 today, which is the worst since it was 43/57 on Feb. 1.  The approval number hasn't been lower since it hit 42 a couple of days in Jan. 2018.

The 538 averages for all polls and RV/LV-only polls are also now at their worst levels for Trump since the government shutdown.

Rasmussen had him at 52/47 before The Phone Call dropped. -9 approve, +7 disapprove. That's pretty brutal but a remarkably small change given it is now considered solid fact that the president attempted to sell out the country for a political favor from a foreign leader.

This is the kind of thing that would drop an ordinary president into Bush 2008 territory.

This is what happens when partisans adopt cult like mentalities.

I am so looking forward to when the spell is broken and all the people who are praising Trump as savior are blaming him for the GOP's complete dysfunction.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

So all the al-Baghdadi stuff helped him absolutely zero.

The right-wing media sure crashed hard on this one.

Oh well, back to parroting 4chan troll conspiracy theories as talking points.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sean Hannity slams Fox News polling:

Sean Hannity said on his syndicated radio show Tuesday that he agreed with President Trump's criticism of Fox News polling, arguing it was "oversampling" Democrats.
 
Hannity, who is also a Fox News host, criticized the polling methodology used by Fox News, calling it "really wrong" compared to other recent surveys measuring the popularity of Trump and Democratic presidential candidates like former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

https://thehill.com/homenews/media/469213-hannity-slams-fox-news-polling-on-radio-show

The 2020 election will also have terrible methodology and oversample Democrats.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

November 9, 2016:
"My fellow Americans, I'm very humbled, so humbled to have won the election. Nobody is as humble as me. Believe me. Not a lot of people know this, but you can win an election when the other person gets more votes nationwide. But that's not how our Constitution works, people. Not how it works. Nobody knows more about the Constitution than me. Believe me. Now, I know there are a lot of people, really fine people, who voted for Hillary Clinton. Such a fine candidate, such a great campaign. And maybe I'm not their first choice. But I promise to be the President for everyone, whether you voted for me or not. I even promise to be the best President to all the haters and losers. *grin and wink*"

And so on. And maybe he tries not to use the Presidency for personal gain, not to insist the Justice Department be loyal to him alone, not to fire or drive out every competent advisor in his cabinet, to actually listen to said advisors, to comport himself in the manner of a world leader, to stay off of Twitter, and to take the investigation into Russian meddling seriously.

That President Trump would win in 2020. Easily.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

 But we just gloss over that because Trump.

He has spent 3 years painting everyone not aligned with him as a hater, loser, traitor, Very Unfair!, dishonest, etc. There was no reason to do so, politically. If he can shoot a guy on Fifth Avenue and not lose support, he can treat his political enemies with respect and dignity and not lose support. But Trump be Trump, and he goes out of his way to polarize people and antagonize anyone who has any reason to dislike or oppose him on anything.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ipsos Core Political tracker (weekly), Nov. 4-5, 1114 adults including 944 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 20 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 45 (-2), No 41 (nc)

RV:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

Impeach Trump?  Yes 47 (-1), No 41 (-1)

Looks like those public hearings are coming just in time.

Grab the popcorn, everybody.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

But we just gloss over that because Trump.

It's nearly impossible to mentally retain all the horrible things he has said or done.

He obviously can win with nearly a 3 million loss in the popular vote. He did. An even shift of 1% of the popular vote will send him down to defeat, though.  Obviously it will not be an even swing; such never happens. Democrats may have maxed out in some states (CA, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, and VT).

I am not going to say how the impeachment affects the 2020 vote.

I'm not sure about that assertion. They failed to break 60% in half of those states in 2016. Blue State America now basically holds a daily Two Minutes Hate for Trump, and collective psychology may drive more people to polls.

"Voting booth selfie! #DumpTrump #NotThisTime"

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here come the crayons on the Morning Consult polls of September. This is the last set of polls in the pre-impeachment time. The impeachment begins with even one formal charge.

Net approval for the President

+10 or higher  -10 or higher
+5 to +9%        -5 to -9%
+1 to +4          -1 to -4

exact tie in white

It is at +4 in Arkansas, so that is no misprint... Trump is at +1 in both Dakotas, and -2 in Nebraska. I'm guessing that the trade wars hurt American farmers. Arkansas grows much rice...  

October ratings have dropped!

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is deeper underwater in IA than VA? Weird. The trade war?

It's been that way for almost the entirty of Trump's presidency. I'd say it's just a fluke in their polling. MC, however, is not the only pollster to show Trump pretty underwater in Iowa.

I've never understood those VA numbers.