What would need to happen for California to trend to the right?

[Cyrusman]

What time of political environment or specific national situation would need to happen to see an election where California trended drastically to the right? I’m not saying for. GOP member to win the state but to see a situation where it drifted right by multiple points?

[Agonized-Statism]

A few decades, more turmoil, and a latino candidate. A rust belt effect will set in that protectionists could take advantage of. It might be swingy once Pete Wilson is completely forgotten.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It would start with Latinos being more assimilated and voting like whites. We already see some of this in Texas. 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Democrats become the anti big tech and anti AI party, and a moderate Republican is the nominee during a bad year for Democrats nationally. Then a Republican could win the Gubernatorial Contest(note it still only would be the Gubernatorial Contest , the Senate Race would still be Safe D) and if that Republican does a successful job at governing the state it could trend back to the right.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Republicans become socially conservative and fiscally liberal, while Democrats become the opposite.


Thus, Republicans have a lock on the Hispanic vote and California is Safe R in most elections.

[Orser67]

It would start with Latinos being more assimilated and voting like whites. We already see some of this in Texas. 

Democrats become the anti big tech and anti AI party

I think it would be a combination of these two trends. Tech moguls and their employees currently tend to support Democrats, but I'm not sure that they can really co-exist in the same party as democratic socialists, especially since tech seems likely to be a bigger and bigger part of our economy and anti-trust seems likely to become a bigger issue.

[Beet]

The GOP becomes more socially moderate, or an economic crisis hits that is blamed on big government, are the only real answers.

[morgieb]

We'd probably see something like more white liberals emigrating as California gets more and more expensive and Republicans making inroads into the Hispanic vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has moved CA, NV and CO firmly to left. The only GOPer that can win a Dem state again is Rubio. But, Trump will lose anyways in 2020, solidifying another Dem majority that Dubya created. Trump ia seen as thec3rd term Dubya.

[morgankingsley]

Trump would only need to get 32 or more percent to do this. Sure he's unpopular there, but I can't imagine him getting 30 or less percent

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Trump would only need to get 32 or more percent to do this. Sure he's unpopular there, but I can't imagine him getting 30 or less percent

I think the margin will be slightly wider than it was in 2016, but he'll also get a higher percentage of the vote compared to 2016 due to a much smaller third party vote.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Trump has moved CA, NV and CO firmly to left. The only GOPer that can win a Dem state again is Rubio. But, Trump will lose anyways in 2020, solidifying another Dem majority that Dubya created. Trump ia seen as thec3rd term Dubya.

Nevada and CO trended right in 2016...

[Annatar]

Trump has moved CA, NV and CO firmly to left. The only GOPer that can win a Dem state again is Rubio. But, Trump will lose anyways in 2020, solidifying another Dem majority that Dubya created. Trump ia seen as thec3rd term Dubya.

Nevada and CO trended right in 2016...

This forum is delusional, people on here think states that voted Republican relative to the nation like NH and MN are safe D whereas states that voted 5 to 6% more R then the nation are toss up or even tilt d like Arizona. The fact that NV has trended by R+2.5 each time in the last 2 elections and Trump had a 48% approval in the 2018 exit polls, the highest of any Clinton won state is just an uncomfortable fact that gets ignored.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Trump has moved CA, NV and CO firmly to left. The only GOPer that can win a Dem state again is Rubio. But, Trump will lose anyways in 2020, solidifying another Dem majority that Dubya created. Trump ia seen as thec3rd term Dubya.

Nevada and CO trended right in 2016...

NV did. CO swung R but didn't trend R because the swing was less profound than the national swing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio nominated as the GOP nominee; however, with a tough GOP map in 2022, and a centrist Biden as Prez, 2022 Senate can have upsets: FL, OH, and NC

[Sumner 1868]

It is moving right. It's just the conservatives run as Democrats now. See Orange County. Right-wing Democrats connected to tech barons are the dominant faction in California.

Also, I see once again people believe the Prop 187 myth. It isn't true. The GOP never had any real Hispanic support in California pre-1994. The exit polls showed that  because none of them voted back then. The voter rates rose because of unionization of Hispanics.

http://www.beyondchron.org/latino-voting-driven-labor-not-anti-immigrant-attacks/

[All Along The Watchtower]

Jim Webb as the Democratic nominee, William Weld as the Republican nominee.

[Young Conservative]

It would start with Latinos being more assimilated and voting like whites. We already see some of this in Texas. 

Texas Hispanics vote at least 70-30 D if you look at the Hispanic precincts. And that’s probably underselling it.

Wrong. Even Beto didn't get the margin you claim.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/governor

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Jim Webb as the Democratic nominee, William Weld as the Republican nominee.

Webb would still win California by 15+ points, and plausibly quite a bit more than that.

[Senator Incitatus]

It would start with Latinos being more assimilated and voting like whites. We already see some of this in Texas. 

Texas Hispanics vote at least 70-30 D if you look at the Hispanic precincts. And that’s probably underselling it.

Wrong. Even Beto didn't get the margin you claim.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/governor

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas/senate

Precinct analysis isn't an effective counter to the assimilation argument anyway – the point of assimilation is that Hispanics are no longer cloistered and cut off from mainstream white political culture.

[AN63093]

If you just mean a swing, that could happen as early as 2020, since Dems are maxxed out in CA and Trump would just have to perform nominally better.

A true trend is harder to predict- CA hasn't trended R since 1996.  It would take something fairly significant.  Maybe not a realignment level event, but definitely something unusual.  A candidate that was tailor-made to a specific condition in CA (Skill and Chance outlines one possible scenario).  It would also help if turnout was generally down nation-wide.

If you don't mean a trend in any one individual election, but an overall permanent shift in margins over-time so that the balance changes.. well that is entirely different, since CA has stabilized as a 60%-ish D state and I suspect will remain so for the foreseeable future.  For something like this to change probably would require a realignment from the current party positions.

[RINO Tom]

The most obvious answer is to improve with both White college grads and Hispanic voters, but I get it's more fun to stick with the dynamic we had in 2016, stretch it out perpetually and come up with crazy scenarios where climate change or migration patterns completely up-heave everything.

[NoSettlersAllowed]

Barring minorities from voting.

[Sumner 1868]

Barring minorities from voting.

Oh look, maga2020  is back to preform a strawman show.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Millions of people suddenly dropping dead?