IN-AG 2020: Who can defeat the tainted AG Curtis Hill?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Besides a GOP primary opponent... no one.

The average voter in Indiana has no idea that Curtis Hill is a Weak Incumbent™.

*ding ding ding*

This race has IN-9 written all over it: vulnerable to a Democratic challenge under conventional wisdom, which is increasingly shown to be worth very little as Indiana settles comfortably in the Republican column down ballot.

You're from Indiana, explain why.

In simplest terms, because Indiana Democrats are losing ground everywhere except the suburbs, and demographic change is not rapid enough to make up for the collapse in the Southern part of the state. Those rural Southern counties are what allowed Joe Donnelly to win and John Gregg to nearly defeat Mike Pence in 2012. In 2018, they voted overwhelmingly for Braun—and Donnelly was much better funded, better known, more experienced running a statewide campaign, and benefitted from more media attention on his race than whoever the party ends up running against Curtis Hill in 2020. For whatever reason, these areas are no longer willing to vote for a Blue Dog candidate the way they were even ten years ago; chalk it up to Trump, or generational change, or the state GOP being mostly competent and disinclined to flights of conservative fantasy legislating compared to their counterparts in Kansas or Wisconsin: it comes to the same thing. Hill might lose to a challenger at the State Convention, but he'll win reelection in the fall if he doesn't, even if the margin of this race is somewhat narrower than Holcomb's reelection likely will be.

Partly, this comes down to what Joshua said: most people aren't following this scandal closely enough for it to change their vote. I'd be surprised if a majority of Hoosiers could independently name the Attorney General or, vice versa, tell you exactly who Curtis Hill is or describe the allegations against him with any degree of specificity. That being the case, it's hard to see where the fuel for a "Republicans for [insert Dem nominee here]" campaign is going to come from. Glenda Ritz managed to pull off a win in the 2012 Superintendent race—in an environment much more favorable to Democrats than 2020 is likely to be—thanks to the support of teachers' unions and parents upset over the Common Core. Who are the anti-Hill Republicans who are going to bring the same degree of passion and commitment to this race next year? Unlike the SoPI, the State Attorney General doesn't have a direct impact on most people's lives. We've already seen that politicians and voters are willing to ignore sexual harassment charges as it suits their narrative. Especially considering the charges were originally made two years before the election, I doubt this will be a burning issue in most voters' minds—except maybe for those who were never going to vote for Hill anyways.

Finally, the state Democratic party is an organizational wreck and is unlikely to have the funds to mount a serious challenge to Hill, especially with a popular incumbent like Holcomb leading the opposing slate.

This. It would take a Democratic landslide nationwide to take down Hill, especially considering Holcomb will likely wipe the floor with his opponent.

Holcomb literally only won by 6 in a Republican tilting national environment, no more than the amount that Donnelly lost by in a Democratic leaning national environment. He is not Safe.