Internal poll: Sanders leads Trump in MI, WI, and PA by 8-11 points
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  Internal poll: Sanders leads Trump in MI, WI, and PA by 8-11 points
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Author Topic: Internal poll: Sanders leads Trump in MI, WI, and PA by 8-11 points  (Read 2764 times)
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jfern
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« on: April 22, 2019, 05:45:43 PM »

Michigan: Sanders leads 52-41
Wisconsin: Sanders leads 52-42
Pennsylvania: Sanders leads 51-43

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5974060-Tulchin-Research-Memo-Sanders-Defeating-Trump-in.html
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2019, 05:48:41 PM »

Actually believable.

For fun, I decided to make county flips for Sanders vs Trump in the midwest.

Wisconsin: Kenosha, Sauk, Columbia, Richland, Vernon, Crawford, Lafayette, Grant, Trempealeau, Pierce, Door
Michigan: Macomb, Saginaw, Isabella, Kent, Leelaneu
Pennsylvania: Northampton, Berks, Erie
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2019, 05:49:46 PM »

Grest news😊, IA is in play as well, that gives Dems 272, even if Ernst wins
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2019, 05:50:32 PM »

Junk poll! A square circle makes more sense than Wisconsin voting to the left of Pennsylvania!!!!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2019, 05:54:06 PM »

It's always good to be skeptical of internals especially from certain campaigns. Not sure I believe these numbers.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2019, 05:55:10 PM »

Knock off 5 for an internal and it looks pretty believable.
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S019
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2019, 06:18:55 PM »

Since, when do we take internals at face value

Internals are solely for fundraising

---->Trash
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lfromnj
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2019, 07:23:11 PM »

Actually believable.

For fun, I decided to make county flips for Sanders vs Trump in the midwest.

Wisconsin: Kenosha, Sauk, Columbia, Richland, Vernon, Crawford, Lafayette, Grant, Trempealeau, Pierce, Door
Michigan: Macomb, Saginaw, Isabella, Kent, Leelaneu
Pennsylvania: Northampton, Berks, Erie

Bob Casey won Berks by 4% while winning the state by 13%. It’s not flipping to Bernie lol

Im surprised Politician didn't try Gogebic county
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2019, 07:46:27 PM »

FYI sanders released an internal showing him leading in WV.
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JG
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2019, 07:48:05 PM »

Is it from the same pollster who showed him winning West Virginia and being close in Oklahoma?
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2019, 08:23:41 PM »

I just hope if Sanders wins the nomination that he doesn’t ignore D-trending places like AZ, GA, TX, NC and even FL
This. Any semblance of a Sanders agenda is DOA if he doesn't help get folks like Abrams and Castro in the Senate.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2019, 12:53:46 AM »

The same pollster had Sanders leading Trump in West Virginia
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2019, 12:56:50 AM »

West Virginia isnt a battleground stste
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2019, 01:40:36 AM »

West Virginia isnt a battleground stste

I am just pointing out how unreliable this poll is
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Sirius_
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« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2019, 07:37:33 AM »

>Internal polls
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KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2019, 09:45:49 AM »

West Virginia isnt a battleground stste

For WV Senator, 2018

Joe Manchin (D-WV) - 290,510 ✔
Patrick Morrisey (R-WV) - 271,113




For WV Governor, 2016

Jim Justice (D-WV) - 350,408 ✔
Bill Cole (R-WV) - 301,987
Charlotte Jean Pritt (M-WV) - 42,068

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2019, 06:47:34 PM »

Sanders could definitely win these states, but they will not be by margins like these.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2019, 07:34:09 PM »

I just hope if Sanders wins the nomination that he doesn’t ignore D-trending places like AZ, GA, TX, NC and even FL
This. Any semblance of a Sanders agenda is DOA if he doesn't help get folks like Abrams and Castro in the Senate.

Thank you for reminding me that I have nothing to fear even if Sanders stumbled into the Oval for a term.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2019, 10:03:25 PM »

Junk poll! A square circle makes more sense than Wisconsin voting to the left of Pennsylvania!!!!

Sanders is one of the very few Democrats I could see doing better in WI than PA, I’ll give you that, but we all know how inaccurate WI polling can be, especially internal polls. And as some of the previous posters already noted, Sanders’s team isn’t exactly known for releasing believable GE numbers.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2019, 10:10:37 PM »

Junk poll! A square circle makes more sense than Wisconsin voting to the left of Pennsylvania!!!!

Sanders is one of the very few Democrats I could see doing better in WI than PA, I’ll give you that, but we all know how inaccurate WI polling can be, especially internal polls. And as some of the previous posters already noted, Sanders’s team isn’t exactly known for releasing believable GE numbers.

It was decently accurate in 2018. While this poll is obviously junk, I think that many on Atlas are very bullish on Trump's chances in Wisconsin, and bearish on his chances in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Sure, Trump could win Wisconsin and lose Michigan/Pennsylvania, but I'd rate all three Toss-Ups for now.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #20 on: April 25, 2019, 02:25:11 AM »


The umpteenth poll to show that Pennsylvania is the more battlegroundy state of these three. Smiley
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #21 on: April 25, 2019, 02:29:59 AM »

Junk poll! A square circle makes more sense than Wisconsin voting to the left of Pennsylvania!!!!

lol. The dogmas will never end, will they now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: April 25, 2019, 04:16:14 AM »

These polls show Dems strength in midwest, not necessarily the end result. Cook PVI is more accurats: Pa, NM, CO & MI 3-4 points D, Wi, NV, VA even to 2 points D, despite what happened in 2016.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #23 on: April 25, 2019, 08:44:21 AM »

Junk poll! A square circle makes more sense than Wisconsin voting to the left of Pennsylvania!!!!

Sanders is one of the very few Democrats I could see doing better in WI than PA, I’ll give you that, but we all know how inaccurate WI polling can be, especially internal polls. And as some of the previous posters already noted, Sanders’s team isn’t exactly known for releasing believable GE numbers.

It was decently accurate in 2018. While this poll is obviously junk, I think that many on Atlas are very bullish on Trump's chances in Wisconsin, and bearish on his chances in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Sure, Trump could win Wisconsin and lose Michigan/Pennsylvania, but I'd rate all three Toss-Ups for now.

Yeah, I think it's because of the closer governor race and supreme court race, whereas nothing comparable to those happened in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Similarly, almost everyone thinks Florida will be competitive in 2020 but next to no one thinks Democrats will win it (due to the 2018 races skewing perception). In reality, all three states are pretty damn close to each other in terms of partisanship.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #24 on: April 25, 2019, 10:59:58 PM »

Question about "Internal Polls" ...

Do they tend to be more reliable than Polls from Polling Companies?

If so- why? (surely polling companies put more resources into polling than campaign?)
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