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  Census 2020 Citizenship Question looking to be upheld
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Yang2020
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« on: April 23, 2019, 12:29:05 pm »

Absolutely disgusting and undemocratic. I would link the NYT article but I haven't reached 20 posts yet.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: April 23, 2019, 03:14:11 pm »

It's deference to the executive branch that seems to be what the majority is looking at. Both Gorsuch & Kavanaugh treated citizenship inquiries as unremarkable in their questions during the oral arguments.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2019, 12:00:31 am »
« Edited: April 26, 2019, 02:01:39 pm by R.P. McM »

Absolutely disgusting and undemocratic.

Whether John Roberts realizes it or not, his historical reputation will be that of a modern day Roger Taney. We need to accept that Republicans don't actually care about democracy ó it's WHITE POWER! all the way down. The Court is now illegitimate, and I shudder to think what sort of nastiness will be required to pry power from these unprincipled bigots.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2019, 08:36:43 am »

It's deference to the executive branch that seems to be what the majority is looking at. Both Gorsuch & Kavanaugh treated citizenship inquiries as unremarkable in their questions during the oral arguments.

This. Frankly I tend to agree. I've never thought it was a good argument here or in the immigration case to make the argument that "well yes any other President could do this but Trump is uniquely so bad that otherwise legitimate presidential powers can never, ever, ever be exercised by him but only by him because him am bad!"

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RoboWop
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2019, 11:59:08 am »

Absolutely disgusting and undemocratic. I would link the NYT article but I haven't reached 20 posts yet.

It's remarkable how many methods of stretching the concept of "democracy" are yet undiscovered.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2019, 05:25:21 am »
« Edited: May 09, 2019, 05:33:16 am by R.P. McM »

Absolutely disgusting and undemocratic. I would link the NYT article but I haven't reached 20 posts yet.

It's remarkable how many methods of stretching the concept of "democracy" are yet undiscovered.

I think a government that earned 3 million fewer votes than the opposition conspiring with its illegitimate Supreme Court majority in an effort to rig the census and create a deliberate undercount would qualify as undemocratic.  
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muon2
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2019, 08:37:55 am »

It's deference to the executive branch that seems to be what the majority is looking at. Both Gorsuch & Kavanaugh treated citizenship inquiries as unremarkable in their questions during the oral arguments.

This. Frankly I tend to agree. I've never thought it was a good argument here or in the immigration case to make the argument that "well yes any other President could do this but Trump is uniquely so bad that otherwise legitimate presidential powers can never, ever, ever be exercised by him but only by him because him am bad!"



To add to this, I did some research into the prior use of the citizenship question on the long form used through 2000. The question went to 1 out of 6 household so the statistics are highly relevant. There was a drop off in participation across all groups for the long form which isn't surprising given the time the long form took to complete. There was also a drop off in participation by minorities and immigrants on both forms which is independent of the citizenship question. I could not find that there was a steeper drop off by immigrants than what would be expected by the combined statistics of the two separate factors of long form and lower immigrant response on all forms.

It is especially interesting to look at CA comparing the 1990 response rate to that of 2000. Prop 187 (1994) denied services to illegal immigrants and might have been expected to further undermine counts in that state. However Gov Davis invested state funds to spend on city census committees and the result was an increase in minority and immigrant participation in 2000 compared to 1990 despite the onus of Prop 187.

The CA experience in 2000 suggests that reduced response rates by immigrants and minorities can be more than overcome through state and city investment in Census Complete Count efforts. Another way of saying it is that a public education campaign has more positive impact than the negative impact of a citizenship question.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2019, 10:11:49 pm »

It's deference to the executive branch that seems to be what the majority is looking at. Both Gorsuch & Kavanaugh treated citizenship inquiries as unremarkable in their questions during the oral arguments.

This. Frankly I tend to agree. I've never thought it was a good argument here or in the immigration case to make the argument that "well yes any other President could do this but Trump is uniquely so bad that otherwise legitimate presidential powers can never, ever, ever be exercised by him but only by him because him am bad!"



To add to this, I did some research into the prior use of the citizenship question on the long form used through 2000. The question went to 1 out of 6 household so the statistics are highly relevant. There was a drop off in participation across all groups for the long form which isn't surprising given the time the long form took to complete. There was also a drop off in participation by minorities and immigrants on both forms which is independent of the citizenship question. I could not find that there was a steeper drop off by immigrants than what would be expected by the combined statistics of the two separate factors of long form and lower immigrant response on all forms.

It is especially interesting to look at CA comparing the 1990 response rate to that of 2000. Prop 187 (1994) denied services to illegal immigrants and might have been expected to further undermine counts in that state. However Gov Davis invested state funds to spend on city census committees and the result was an increase in minority and immigrant participation in 2000 compared to 1990 despite the onus of Prop 187.

The CA experience in 2000 suggests that reduced response rates by immigrants and minorities can be more than overcome through state and city investment in Census Complete Count efforts. Another way of saying it is that a public education campaign has more positive impact than the negative impact of a citizenship question.

All well and good, except that the intent is inherently corrupt. No one is honestly expecting to accurately gauge the number of undocumented immigrants via voluntary responses. So what's the purpose? To produce a deliberate under-count that benefits the GOP politically.
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muon2
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2019, 10:51:50 pm »

It's deference to the executive branch that seems to be what the majority is looking at. Both Gorsuch & Kavanaugh treated citizenship inquiries as unremarkable in their questions during the oral arguments.

This. Frankly I tend to agree. I've never thought it was a good argument here or in the immigration case to make the argument that "well yes any other President could do this but Trump is uniquely so bad that otherwise legitimate presidential powers can never, ever, ever be exercised by him but only by him because him am bad!"



To add to this, I did some research into the prior use of the citizenship question on the long form used through 2000. The question went to 1 out of 6 household so the statistics are highly relevant. There was a drop off in participation across all groups for the long form which isn't surprising given the time the long form took to complete. There was also a drop off in participation by minorities and immigrants on both forms which is independent of the citizenship question. I could not find that there was a steeper drop off by immigrants than what would be expected by the combined statistics of the two separate factors of long form and lower immigrant response on all forms.

It is especially interesting to look at CA comparing the 1990 response rate to that of 2000. Prop 187 (1994) denied services to illegal immigrants and might have been expected to further undermine counts in that state. However Gov Davis invested state funds to spend on city census committees and the result was an increase in minority and immigrant participation in 2000 compared to 1990 despite the onus of Prop 187.

The CA experience in 2000 suggests that reduced response rates by immigrants and minorities can be more than overcome through state and city investment in Census Complete Count efforts. Another way of saying it is that a public education campaign has more positive impact than the negative impact of a citizenship question.

All well and good, except that the intent is inherently corrupt. No one is honestly expecting to accurately gauge the number of undocumented immigrants via voluntary responses. So what's the purpose? To produce a deliberate under-count that benefits the GOP politically.

in 2009 and 2010 I went to a number of redistricting conferences in advance of the Census data release. At more than one of those meetings I listened to lawyers who typically worked with Dems talk with regret about the lack of a citizenship question in 2010. In 2007 SCOTUS ruled that CVAP data was the appropriate set to use in VRA cases but it was only in the ACS data after 2005 and didn't align with the Census data. The result was that there was going to be less accuracy and therefore a more difficult time winning VRA cases.

The current intent may not be based on protecting minority rights under the VRA, but having that data will benefit those making legal challenges. And as I pointed out the data shows that a state can overcome the negative stigma of the question if they want to make the effort.
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AverroŽs
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2019, 08:37:41 pm »

The idea that it's unacceptable for a country conducting a census to ask whether respondents to that census are citizens of the country in question deserves more scrutiny than it's getting from most Democratic-aligned groups.

It's almost enough to make me wonder whether the intent here is not so much genuine concern as a desire to preemptively cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 Census. I recall politicians in NYC getting a great deal of political mileage out of complaining when the previous census showed surprisingly unimpressive population growth throughout the city.
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Figs
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2019, 07:42:18 am »

The idea that it's unacceptable for a country conducting a census to ask whether respondents to that census are citizens of the country in question deserves more scrutiny than it's getting from most Democratic-aligned groups.

It's almost enough to make me wonder whether the intent here is not so much genuine concern as a desire to preemptively cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 Census. I recall politicians in NYC getting a great deal of political mileage out of complaining when the previous census showed surprisingly unimpressive population growth throughout the city.

The issue is the accuracy of the count, and the fact that statisticians have shown real concerns that the question may materially harm the count's accuracy.
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AverroŽs
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2019, 03:30:55 pm »
« Edited: May 21, 2019, 06:57:12 pm by AverroŽs »

The issue is the accuracy of the count, and the fact that statisticians have shown real concerns that the question may materially harm the count's accuracy.

There's a glut of commentary to that effect, but not much more than that.

The quick experiment that Muon describes in this thread is more evidence than I've seen mentioned by any major media outlet on the subject. Most articles don't even mention the sampling problems that the ACS suffers from when they discuss how the Census Bureau collects this data now.

There is strong evidence that it's more difficult to enumerate non-citizens, but there is nothing to tie their response rates to the citizenship question.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2019, 08:39:15 am »

The idea that it's unacceptable for a country conducting a census to ask whether respondents to that census are citizens of the country in question deserves more scrutiny than it's getting from most Democratic-aligned groups.

It's almost enough to make me wonder whether the intent here is not so much genuine concern as a desire to preemptively cast doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 Census. I recall politicians in NYC getting a great deal of political mileage out of complaining when the previous census showed surprisingly unimpressive population growth throughout the city.

Pretty much, yeah.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2019, 01:25:26 am »
« Edited: May 24, 2019, 01:41:17 am by R.P. McM »

It's deference to the executive branch that seems to be what the majority is looking at. Both Gorsuch & Kavanaugh treated citizenship inquiries as unremarkable in their questions during the oral arguments.

This. Frankly I tend to agree. I've never thought it was a good argument here or in the immigration case to make the argument that "well yes any other President could do this but Trump is uniquely so bad that otherwise legitimate presidential powers can never, ever, ever be exercised by him but only by him because him am bad!"



To add to this, I did some research into the prior use of the citizenship question on the long form used through 2000. The question went to 1 out of 6 household so the statistics are highly relevant. There was a drop off in participation across all groups for the long form which isn't surprising given the time the long form took to complete. There was also a drop off in participation by minorities and immigrants on both forms which is independent of the citizenship question. I could not find that there was a steeper drop off by immigrants than what would be expected by the combined statistics of the two separate factors of long form and lower immigrant response on all forms.

It is especially interesting to look at CA comparing the 1990 response rate to that of 2000. Prop 187 (1994) denied services to illegal immigrants and might have been expected to further undermine counts in that state. However Gov Davis invested state funds to spend on city census committees and the result was an increase in minority and immigrant participation in 2000 compared to 1990 despite the onus of Prop 187.

The CA experience in 2000 suggests that reduced response rates by immigrants and minorities can be more than overcome through state and city investment in Census Complete Count efforts. Another way of saying it is that a public education campaign has more positive impact than the negative impact of a citizenship question.

All well and good, except that the intent is inherently corrupt. No one is honestly expecting to accurately gauge the number of undocumented immigrants via voluntary responses. So what's the purpose? To produce a deliberate under-count that benefits the GOP politically.

in 2009 and 2010 I went to a number of redistricting conferences in advance of the Census data release. At more than one of those meetings I listened to lawyers who typically worked with Dems talk with regret about the lack of a citizenship question in 2010. In 2007 SCOTUS ruled that CVAP data was the appropriate set to use in VRA cases but it was only in the ACS data after 2005 and didn't align with the Census data. The result was that there was going to be less accuracy and therefore a more difficult time winning VRA cases.

The current intent may not be based on protecting minority rights under the VRA, but having that data will benefit those making legal challenges. And as I pointed out the data shows that a state can overcome the negative stigma of the question if they want to make the effort.

Yeah, I guess I just don't believe that R-SCOTUS actually gives a sh!+ about the VRA ó see Shelby v. Holder. The overarching goal should be an accurate census, and any question that significantly diminishes that outcome should be discarded. But again, the GOP intent is purely corrupt.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2019, 01:36:10 am »
« Edited: May 24, 2019, 02:12:37 am by R.P. McM »

The issue is the accuracy of the count, and the fact that statisticians have shown real concerns that the question may materially harm the count's accuracy.

There's a glut of commentary to that effect, but not much more than that.

The quick experiment that Muon describes in this thread is more evidence than I've seen mentioned by any major media outlet on the subject. Most articles don't even mention the sampling problems that the ACS suffers from when they discuss how the Census Bureau collects this data now.

There is strong evidence that it's more difficult to enumerate non-citizens, but there is nothing to tie their response rates to the citizenship question.

I see lots of red-herrings, very little evidence. Either the citizenship question is likely to produce an under-count, or it's not. If it is, what's the purpose? Problem is, the point of the census is to establish an accurate count. It's absolutely absurd to think that a voluntary citizenship question will be answered accurately by undocumented immigrants, so the motive is quite transparent. I mean, we all know this is rat-f***kery, so you won't object when a future Democratic president attempts to reduce the response rate of white trash? As long as there's a pretext, right? Sample Q: How may times have you drank to excess or used meth this month, you bloated, racist piece of sh!+?
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AverroŽs
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2019, 05:57:59 am »

The issue is the accuracy of the count, and the fact that statisticians have shown real concerns that the question may materially harm the count's accuracy.

There's a glut of commentary to that effect, but not much more than that.

The quick experiment that Muon describes in this thread is more evidence than I've seen mentioned by any major media outlet on the subject. Most articles don't even mention the sampling problems that the ACS suffers from when they discuss how the Census Bureau collects this data now.

There is strong evidence that it's more difficult to enumerate non-citizens, but there is nothing to tie their response rates to the citizenship question.

I see lots of red-herrings, very little evidence. Either the citizenship question is likely to produce an under-count, or it's not. If it is, what's the purpose? Problem is, the point of the census is to establish an accurate count. It's absolutely absurd to think that a voluntary citizenship question will be answered accurately by undocumented immigrants, so the motive is quite transparent. I mean, we all know this is rat-f***kery, so you won't object when a future Democratic president attempts to reduce the response rate of white trash? As long as there's a pretext, right? Sample Q: How may times have you drank to excess or used meth this month, you bloated, racist piece of sh!+?

The question holds enough relevance that it is included on the American Community Survey and has been included on some past censuses. To contend that federal interest in the subject is bizarre or necessarily malignant simply isn't credible.

If the purpose of the decennial census were only to establish a population count, then even the short-form survey goes well beyond that in its scope. People who insist that this is wrong sound like John Birchers raving about the gold-fringed flag. Anyone interested in federal data collection must realize that right-wingers are still trying to take down the American Community Survey, not to mention other important data sources, with exactly this argument.

There's no real indication that a citizenship question would produce any more of an undercount than already occurs with migrants, black men, indigenous peoples, and several other groups (and that the Bureau goes to great lengths to address). Ongoing partisan campaigns to de-legitimize the Census, led by both Democratic demagogues like Stacey Abrams and Republican demagogues like Donald Trump, are more concerning.

Your bigoted comments about "white trash" speak for themselves. It's unfortunate that the Democratic Party has become such a comfortable home for prejudice. It's enough to make you wonder how they might talk about the next group that turns against them in large numbers.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2019, 01:20:58 am »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 01:46:07 am by R.P. McM »

The issue is the accuracy of the count, and the fact that statisticians have shown real concerns that the question may materially harm the count's accuracy.

There's a glut of commentary to that effect, but not much more than that.

The quick experiment that Muon describes in this thread is more evidence than I've seen mentioned by any major media outlet on the subject. Most articles don't even mention the sampling problems that the ACS suffers from when they discuss how the Census Bureau collects this data now.

There is strong evidence that it's more difficult to enumerate non-citizens, but there is nothing to tie their response rates to the citizenship question.

I see lots of red-herrings, very little evidence. Either the citizenship question is likely to produce an under-count, or it's not. If it is, what's the purpose? Problem is, the point of the census is to establish an accurate count. It's absolutely absurd to think that a voluntary citizenship question will be answered accurately by undocumented immigrants, so the motive is quite transparent. I mean, we all know this is rat-f***kery, so you won't object when a future Democratic president attempts to reduce the response rate of white trash? As long as there's a pretext, right? Sample Q: How may times have you drank to excess or used meth this month, you 9bloated, racist piece of sh!+?

The question holds enough relevance that it is included on the American Community Survey

Not relevant. ACS isn't the census.

Quote
and has been included on some past censuses.

Equally irrelevant ó the possibility of an undercount due to a citizenship question wasn't nearly as pronounced in 1950. But you know this.

Quote
To contend that federal interest in the subject is bizarre or necessarily malignant simply isn't credible.

"Interest." So defend the notion that the proposed question is a reliable means of garnering said information. You can't. Neither can Wilbur Ross.

Quote
If the purpose of the decennial census were only to establish a population count, then even the short-form survey goes well beyond that in its scope.

The primary, constitutional purpose of the census is to establish an accurate population count. Anything frustrating that aim ought to be eliminated.  

Quote
There's no real indication that a citizenship question would produce any more of an undercount than already occurs with migrants, black men, indigenous peoples, and several other groups (and that the Bureau goes to great lengths to address).

Well, if that's the case, I guess we should exacerbate the dynamic! So stupid. Who says a citizenship question will produce a significant undercount? Why, the chief statistical scientist at the Census Bureau:

https://www.prb.org/citizenship-question-risks-a-2020-census-undercount-in-every-state-especially-among-children/

Synonymous with "no real indication," I suppose.  

Quote
Ongoing partisan campaigns to de-legitimize the Census, led by both Democratic demagogues like Stacey Abrams and Republican demagogues like Donald Trump, are more concerning.

Wilbur Ross keeps lying for a reason. Basically, Republicans are attempting to weaponize the census. I reject the approach, but you seem to have no qualms whatsoever. (When did you shed your blue avatar?) Yeah, I can see where this is headed ó a Democratic administration asking extremely intrusive, Orwellian questions about gun ownership. I'm sure you'll object, but the pretext is sound, so your whining will fall on deaf ears.  

Quote
Your bigoted comments about "white trash" speak for themselves. It's unfortunate that the Democratic Party has become such a comfortable home for prejudice. It's enough to make you wonder how they might talk about the next group that turns against them in large numbers.

Hahahaha! WWC: stabbing Democrats in the back since the mid-1960's. For completely non-racist reasons /s. Sure, Jan. Yeah, these folks are contemptible, and I'm done being nice.
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AverroŽs
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2019, 08:38:37 am »

The article that you link provides no evidence that a citizenship question would increase the risk of an under-count. It merely asserts that it would and proceeds to characterize the non-citizen population.

Its sources contain little to that effect either.

The closest that it gets is in describing how the differential response rate to the ACS is lower for non-citizens (52.6 vs 66.1), compared to the decennial census (71.5 vs. 79.9), but this isn't a like-to-like comparison. There are a multitude of reasons for lower responsiveness on the ACS, and many of these factors disproportionately apply to immigrants.

Muon2's analysis above - which is as detailed as anything that I saw described in the referenced Census Bureau memos - casts additional doubt on this argument, which appears to be the only statistical underpinning for objecting to the citizenship question.

The Census Bureau describes data quality problems with citizenship questions in either context, but that's hardly a reason not to ask it given the need for information. The results are biased, but they aren't nonsense.

Moreover, the 1300+ page document from the Bureau contains this helpful justification for including a citizenship question, a question with regard to which you - playfully? - suggested ignorance despite your purported interest in this conversation:

Quote
Ensure Equal Opportunity
Knowing how many people in the community are born in other countries in combination with information about housing, voting, language, employment, and education, helps the government and communities to enforce laws, regulations, and policies against discrimination based on national origin. For example, these data are used to support the enforcement responsibilities under the Voting Rights Act to investigate differences in voter participation rates and to enforce other laws and policies regarding bilingual requirements.1 Citizenship asked 1820–1830, 1870, and 1890 to present.2 Year of entry asked 1890–1930, and 1970 to present.


Educate Children
Knowing how many foreign-born children depend on services through schools helps school districts make staffing and funding decisions. Place of birth, citizenship, and year of entry statistics in combination with other information, such as language spoken at home, help schools understand the needs of their students and qualify for grants that help fund programs for those students (Elementary and Secondary Education Act of 1965).

Understand Changes
Knowing whether people of different races or countries of birth have the same opportunities in education, employment, voting, home ownership, and many other areas is of interest to researchers, advocacy groups, and policymakers. These data may also help communities with large refugee populations that qualify for financial assistance (Immigration Nationality Act)
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2019, 09:49:09 am »

Have any of the defenders of the citizenship question in this thread offered an explanation for why Wilbur Ross felt the need to obfuscate about why he wanted to add the question and to concoct a transparently false attempt to launder the request through another agency? Doesnít that evidence provide strong support for the viewpoint that this is not being done in anything approaching good faith?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2019, 06:51:47 pm »

This is going to doom the Democrats.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #20 on: May 29, 2019, 06:18:39 am »

This is going to doom the Democrats.

I highly doubt it.
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« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2019, 06:52:25 pm »

This is going to doom the Democrats.

I highly doubt it.

What makes you say that?
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2019, 08:22:47 am »

This is going to doom the Democrats.

I highly doubt it.

What makes you say that?

We're talking what ... 2, 3 house seats at most all preventable with an information campaign to answer the census.
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