What would the 2020 D primary look like with a 'reversed' field?

[Karpatsky]

What would the race look like if this was the field? Based roughly on the Wikipedia 'refused to run' list, and a few who were polled in the early stages of the race.

My prediction for an analogous point in the race:

Top tier (>10%):

Abrams
Baldwin
Brown
Kaine

Middle tier (~4-9%)

Kander
Patrick
Sinema

Low tier (>1%)

Bloomberg
Cooper
Gillum
Kennedy
Merkley

Subzero tier

Cuomo
Garcetti
Holder
Landrieu
McAuliffe
O'Malley

I prefer this field to the real one, but only by a little bit.

[Ilhan Apologist]

No Admiral McRaven?

[Roll Roons]

I could see Kander being like Buttigieg. Kaine would have the loser stigma weighing him down. Brown would be a frontrunner, but Baldwin would be tracking him closely. Merkley could do well without Bernie and Warren. Gillum and Patrick would be completely overshadowed by Abrams, and she would become one of the top contenders. Holder would be a joke. Cooper and Sinema would be from the same lane as Bennet/Bullock/Hickenlooper, but they're more charismatic so they'd be polling better. Cuomo and T-Mac would try to put on a "tough guy" act and flop. Bloomberg and Garcetti would certainly be stronger than De Blasio, but that's not saying much. Landrieu would have no niche with Abrams and Cooper in. O'Malley would be a joke as he was in 2016. Kennedy would be hard to place.

In any case, I think this hypothetical field would appear weaker on the surface with the absences of Biden, Bernie, Warren, and Harris, but would end up being considerably stronger and feel less like a clown car.

[Zharques]

To me, there are four choices that would be the best:

Brown: Genuine contender in the rust belt, relatively progressive but also palatable to "the establishment" and moderates. Pick Brown to run a campaign based on re-winning the Rust Belt.

Sinema: To build on the 2018 midterms by continuing to push at the sun-belt, and dissaffected suburban (mainly women) voters who are disaffected by Trump.

Abrams: Appeal to base turnout of minorities / social progressives.

Merkley:  Appeal to base turnout of social / economic progressives.

These, I think, would be the best options.

[brucejoel99]

Kaine = Biden
Brown = Bernie
Abrams = Harris
Baldwin = Warren
Kander = Buttigieg
Patrick = Booker
Kennedy = Beto

Maybe Bloomberg would be doing well too but, otherwise, everybody else (like the candidates currently polling under the real-life candidates above now) wouldn't be polling high enough to matter.

[Zharques]

Kaine = Biden
Brown = Bernie
Abrams = Harris
Baldwin = Warren
Kander = Buttigieg
Patrick = Booker
Kennedy = Beto

Maybe Bloomberg would be doing well too but, otherwise, everybody else (like the candidates currently polling under the real-life candidates above now) wouldn't be polling high enough to matter.

I think a couple of these line up well, but Kaine doesn't really fit Biden perfectly in that he's been around a lot less, and is less tied up in previous administrations.  Brown appeals to middle ages WWC people a lot more than Bernie (Bernie's base is quite young, whereas Brown's average age would be higher. Abrams would be much more palatable to the Bernie side of the base than Harris (see: Mike Gravel's tweets), and Kennedy is a much more mainline Dem than Beto, whose record is quiet moderate. Kennedy's is pretty standard for a Massachusetts Dem.

[brucejoel99]

Kaine = Biden
Brown = Bernie
Abrams = Harris
Baldwin = Warren
Kander = Buttigieg
Patrick = Booker
Kennedy = Beto

Maybe Bloomberg would be doing well too but, otherwise, everybody else (like the candidates currently polling under the real-life candidates above now) wouldn't be polling high enough to matter.

I think a couple of these line up well, but Kaine doesn't really fit Biden perfectly in that he's been around a lot less, and is less tied up in previous administrations.  Brown appeals to middle ages WWC people a lot more than Bernie (Bernie's base is quite young, whereas Brown's average age would be higher. Abrams would be much more palatable to the Bernie side of the base than Harris (see: Mike Gravel's tweets), and Kennedy is a much more mainline Dem than Beto, whose record is quiet moderate. Kennedy's is pretty standard for a Massachusetts Dem.

Yeah, agreed. I wasn't really going for who fits who per se (obviously, not everybody who supports Biden would support Kaine, or Bernie-Brown, or Abrams-Harris, etc., etc.) but rather who'd be approximately equivalent to who in terms of standing in the polls, hence my note about Bloomberg at the end there.

[VPH]

Top-Tier
Kennedy
Brown
W/I: Bob Casey
W/I: John Bel Edwards

Could enthusiastically back in primary
Kander
Baldwin
Landrieu (he's on the cusp of being top-tier)

I like them a lot but they likely wouldn't be my primary choice
Kaine
Cooper
O'Malley
Abrams

Pretty decent
Sinema
Gillum
Holder
Garcetti

Meh
Patrick
Merkley
McAuliffe

Not a huge fan, but would pick over Trump
Bloomberg
Cuomo