It Takes Hart: A Political TL

[NyIndy]

It Takes Hart: A Political TL


SENATOR SPECTER ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT

Senator Arlen Specter has announced he has opted to decline a chance at a fifth term today. Citing his age and the rumblings of a primary challenge over his more moderate beliefs. Speculation over who may run to replace the Senator has already begun.

Note: Welcome to It Takes Hart! Yes my old TL has been abandoned, if there were any fans. Anyway, I would be very surprised if anyone could guess what this is about as of now. I guess you'll have to tune in to find out!

[NyIndy]

I thought this was about Gary Hart but I like this.

Any guesses as to who it’s actually (very loosely) about?

[NyIndy]

I thought this was about Gary Hart but I like this.

Any guesses as to who it’s actually (very loosely) about?

Melissa Hart

Yup. I was inspired by some of the “alternate careers of somewhat irrelevant politician tls”

[NyIndy]

I thought this was about Gary Hart but I like this.

Any guesses as to who it’s actually (very loosely) about?

Thanks!
Melissa Hart

Yup. I was inspired by some of the “alternate careers of somewhat irrelevant politician tls”

Great idea.

Thanks!

[NyIndy]

Democratic Nomination Heats Up
June 21th, 2003

The Democrats have a new competitor in their quest to unseat President Bush, as Howard Dean tosses his hat into the ring. The Former Governor of Vermont hopes to galvanize progressive voters and their anger over the President's conservative policies and the conflict in Iraq.
The Governor's first plan is to try and win a majority of votes in Move On's Primary, which is to be held on the 24th, as the organization has promised that should any candidate garner over half of the voters support will gain the support of Move On as a whole.

Race to Replace Specter Gains First Candidate
June 23rd, 2003

The first candidate hoping to take Senator Specter's seat has announced their campaign.
Congressman Pat Toomey launched his bid for the seat today despite fears he is too Conservative to hold the Centrist Senator's seat. Many in the Party have been pushing for Congresswoman Melissa Hart to enter the race, citing her appeal to moderates and conservatives alike in her seat in the suburbs of Pittsburgh.

Other Headlines:
                US Supreme Court Upholds Affirmative Action
            Sen. Clinton "Undecided" about 2004
        Largest Hailstone of All Time Falls in Nebraska
What the New Tax Law Means for You and Your Wallet

[NyIndy]

Dean Wins Move On Straw Poll
June 24th

Candidate Howard Dean has seen a significant if narrow victory tonight as the Move On Straw Poll has given Dean 52% of its vote, meaning that the progressive Organization will throw its support
behind him. This is a significant win due to the money and resources it can bring to the candidates side. [1]

Bush Begins Preparing for General Election with Tour of Swing States
July 1st, 2003

The President began his Midwestern Tour, which will wind up taking him through crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and Missouri, but today, it began in the State of Ohio with its Senator Mike DeWine and Gov. Bob Taft. The President toured a factory and hosted a rally afterwards. The President has already signed the papers making his run official, but he has yet to officially announce his plans, however this makes them quite obvious.

[1]. OTL, Dean won the Straw Poll with a 44% plurality, meaning that Move On would remain neutral in the primary.

[NyIndy]

Melissa Hart is from Pittsburgh.

You’re right, typo!

[NyIndy]

PRIMARY HEATS UP, FIRST CANDIDATE WITHDRAWS
October 6th, 2003



Candidate Bob Graham withdrew from the race today after the Senators flagging campaign, with low fundraising and polling numbers. Meanwhile, amongst the remaining candidates, Howard Dean and John Kerry have had opposite trajectories. Howard Dean has experienced an unprecedented rise in the polls while Kerry's support halved and then halved again, from 24% to 12% to 6%. Howard Dean meanwhile has absorbed most of the anti-Iraq War voters and is rapidly ascending. The campaign on Joseph Lieberman has also stalled, tying with that of Wesley Clark, who burst on the scene following a "Draft Clark" movement. The whole results of the poll are accessible below:


CNN Poll of Democratic Primary Voters:
Howard Dean- 20%
Joe Lieberman- 12%
Wesley Clark- 12%
Dick Gephardt- 7%
John Kerry- 6%
John Edwards- 4%
Al Sharpton- 4%
Carol Moseley-Braun- 2%
Dennis Kucinich- 1%
Undecided- 32%


HART, TOOMEY ANNOUNCE CAMPAIGNS TO REPLACE SPECTER
October 15th



While Democrats rally around Rep. Joe Hoeffel, Senator Arlen Specter's vacant seat has become a test for both the establishment and grassroots wings of the party, who have found their respective champions in two different members of Congress, Melissa Hart and Pat Toomey respectively. Senator Specter has yet to endorse either but is widely expected to support Congresswoman Hart. On the other side, Rush Limbaugh and other conservative personalities have thrown their support behind Toomey. Oregon Senator Gordon Smith announced his support for Hart saying, "My friend Arlen Specter is a great man, and we should honor him by keeping his seat in Republican hands, and I have no doubt in my mind the best General Election candidate would be Melissa Hart!" Our Poll of Republicans in Pennsylvania came with the following results:


FOX News Poll of Republican Primary Voters:
Rep. Melissa Hart- 32%
Rep. Pat Toomey- 30%
Other- 17%
Unsure- 21%

[NyIndy]

FUNDRAISING NUMBERS FOR 3RD Q 2003 OUT: DEAN BLOWS RIVALS OUT OF WATER
October 20th, 2003



Candidates Filings have revealed that the big winner on the fundraising circuit this quarter was Howard Dean, who pulled in an impressive 16.5 million dollars this quarter while everyone else dragged behind. Some Candidates such as Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt declined to release their fundraising numbers.

Full Fundraising Numbers (Amongst Candidates who provided them)

Howard Dean- 16.5 Million
John Kerry- 4 Million
Wesley Clark- 3.6 Million
John Edwards- 2.7 Million
Dennis Kucinich- 1.7 Million

FIRST DEAN SLIP UP? DEAN FUMBLES IN INTERVIEW IN IOWA
November 2nd, 2003

Howard Dean today is backpedaling after a controversial statement in an interview with the Des Moines Register where he said, "I still want to be the candidate for guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks. We can't beat George Bush unless we appeal to a broad cross-section of Democrats." Other Candidates have jumped on to the statement, Al Sharpton claimed, "those are the folks you don't want on your side." And Dick Gephardt said, "We want the folks with American flags on their trucks, not Confederate." 

Other Headlines:
Specter Endorses Hart over Toomey, will attend Campaign event in Pittsburgh
Bush Announces Stops in Pennsylvania, declines to say if Endorsement is in the cards
Londoners Plan Massive Protests against Pres. Bush's Arrival

[NyIndy]

BUSH HOLDS A LEAD OVER POTENTIAL CHALLENGERS
November 6th, 2003



As President Bush begins his reelection campaign, polling has shown that the President is currently leading potential challengers as our polling shows:

GW/Battleground Survey

George W. Bush - 48%
Howard Dean 43%
R +5

George W. Bush - 48%
Joe Lieberman - 42%
R +6

George W. Bush - 48%
Wesley Clark 45%
R +3

George W. Bush - 48%
John Kerry 43%
R +5

George W. Bush - 48%
John Edwards 42%
R +6

EDWARDS FOCUSES ON SOUTH, IOWA
November 19th, 2003



John Edwards hopes to solidify southern support behind him in the primary. Edwards hopes to use Iowa, as well as early southern primaries like Georgia, Oklahoma and South Carolina to jump-start his campaign. Edwards hopes to use regional appeal to close the gap in southern states. Other candidates are trying to do the same thing, with Dick Gephardt and John Kerry using regional appeal to win over voters in Iowa and New Hampshire respectively.

Other Headlines:
Senator Clinton, Gary Hart Declines Run
The Apprentice, Donald Trump TV show Announced
POLL: 22% of Pennsylvania voters think Melissa Hart is TV actress Melissa Joan Hart!

[NyIndy]

HOWARD DEAN ENDORSED BY AL GORE
December 10th, 2003



Howard Dean has scored another massive win in the Democratic Race as he received the endorsement of the previous presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, Al Gore. Gore said Dean was the man that the party needed to defeat President Bush. "We need somebody who can energize our party and that man is Governor Dean!" The former Vice President claimed. He cited Dean's strong opposition to the Iraq war and progressive politics.

SADDAM HUSSEIN CAPTURED
December 15th, 2003



President Bush scored a major win in Iraq today as the former dictator Saddam Hussein has been captured by American forces in Iraq, the President has made the war in Iraq a centerpiece of his reelection strategy, using it to show him as "tough on terror" and a strong leader. Meanwhile, Democrats seeking to win the White House back have campaigned in opposition to the war. Frontrunner Howard Dean wound up with egg on his face today after he stated that "Saddam's capture makes us no safer than we were yesterday. Other Contenders such as Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts who has proposed changing to forces in Iraq from Mostly American to an international force which Kerry claims would assist in not only lowering the stress put on American forces but help restore America's diplomatic standing in the world following the blow dealt in the initial invasion.

Other Headlines:
"I am not a witch!" Hart jokes at campaign event
Gephardt seeks to recreate Iowa win of '88
Former Illinois Governor Jim Edgar jumps into Senate Race
Green Matt Gonzalez wins SF Mayor Race!

[NyIndy]

WITH 3 WEEKS LEFT UNTIL IOWA, KERRY SURGES
December 29th, 2003

Kerry has seen his numbers increase in the months leading up to Iowa, and is now rising to the top of the pack in the state as the two previous frontrunners, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt have gotten into an ad war in the state, hammering each other with negative ads. Candidates like John Kerry and John Edwards have taken advantage of this by heading into the state and campaigning aggressively. Even Joe Lieberman, who was initially believed to have written the state was making visits. Dean and Gephardt, are now fighting for third a far fall for the two candidates, whichever one is able to do so will be able to limp out of Iowa, while the other will not be so lucky.

GW/Battleground Iowa Poll
John Kerry - 21%
John Edwards - 20%
Howard Dean - 17%
Dick Gephardt - 15%
Joseph Lieberman - 11%
Wesley Clark - 5%
Al Sharpton - 3%
Dennis Kucinich - 2%
Carol Moseley Braun - 1%
Undecided - 5%


GW/Battleground New Hampshire Poll
Howard Dean - 20%
John Kerry - 18%
Joseph Lieberman - 15%
Wesley Clark - 10%
John Edwards- 9%
Dick Gephardt - 6%
Al Sharpton - 4%
Dennis Kucinich - 2%
Carol Moesley Braun - 2%
Undecided - 14%

LIEBERMAN PROCLAIMS "JOEMENTUM" HEADING INTO IOWA
January 2nd, 2004



The first candidate to visit Iowa in 2004, Lieberman has begun to focus on the state after some polls have shown him to be close to hitting the 15% threshold for getting delegates. He also believes a better than expected performance in Iowa could help in NH, where Lieberman has pinned hopes from the beginning of the campaign.

CNN Poll of Nationwide Democratic Primary
Howard Dean - 19%
Joe Lieberman - 14%
Wesley Clark - 11%
Dick Gephardt - 9%
John Kerry - 9%
John Edwards - 8%
Al Sharpton - 5%
Dennis Kucinich - 3%
Carol Moesley Braun - 2%
Undecided - 22%

Other Headlines:
Bush's London Visit Rocked by Protests
Daschle vs Thune Already Shaping up to be Most Important Senate Race of the Year
Sabato's Senate Ratings to be Released Next Week

[NyIndy]

SABATO'S JAN. 2004 SENATE RATINGS

The Senate seems likely to stick with Republicans this election. The most competitive races are as follows:

KENTUCKY: LEAN R
The previous election in Kentucky was quite close, but Jim Bunning had managed to pull it out. He hasn't proven to be a particularly popular Senator and in addition, the Democrats have a particularly strong slate of Candidates including a popular Representative and the Lieutenant Governor.

North Carolina: Lean R
John Edwards vacated his Senate Seat for a chance at the Presidency, and Bill Clinton's chief of staff has run instead. Polls have shown the race narrowly favoring Richard Burr, the Republican.

South Dakota: Lean D
Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle has been hit as an obstructionist by his opponent John Thune, who is currently polling 3-5% behind the Senator.

(Part 2 of this will be up tonight)

[NyIndy]

SENATE RACES PART 2

Colorado: LEAN D
This open Senate Seat in CO has generally seen Democrats polling narrowly ahead of their Republican opponents, save for popular Governor Bill Owens, however, the timeframe for entry from Owens is quickly narrowing, and the Governor has not indicated any interest in running.

Illinois: LEAN D
The race in Illinois is an interesting one. It appears that both nominees are very popular statewide and could lead to an interesting race. Polls are close but as of now, it seems that Barrack Obama and Jim Edgar are nearly neck and neck, but Obama's slim advantage, as well as the states normal partisan lean, make this race Lean D.

Pennsylvania: TOSSUP
One of the two true tossups on this list, the race in the state of Pennsylvania to succeed Arlen Specter is largely dependent on who wins the nominating contest on the Republican side. The Democrats have a fairly straightforward nomination of Representative Joe Hoeffel, but Republicans are seeing a very competitive contest between candidates Melissa Hart and Pat Toomey is brewing. Rep. Hart polls better than Toomey in the general, and her nomination to the race would mean the rating would remain as a Tossup, in the Case of Toomey becoming the nominee, the race would be reclassified as Lean D.

Florida: TOSSUP
The second Toss up on the list, Florida is a state where the winner will likely be decided by the Presidential Election, where the winner will likely take their party's nominee over the finish line.

[NyIndy]

JOE LIEBERMAN MOVES FAMILY TO NEW HAMPSHIRE
December 9th, 2003*

Joe Lieberman has fully turned to NH where he has rented an apartment in Manchester for him and his family. The candidate has decided to go all in on the Granite State, where polls see him right on the delegate threshold.
*I went a bit back in time for this one, but I found it pretty funny and wanted to include it


Back to "current" stuff

NEW POLLING: KERRY AND EDWARDS CONTINUE RISE
January 4th, 2004

A new National poll has shown spikes in support for candidates John Kerry and John Edwards. It seems to have come at the expense of the candidates previously at the top, including Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark, and Howard Dean. Polls in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire are showing problems for candidates with a one-state strategy. Dick Gephardt and Joe Lieberman are not getting the results they'd hoped for in their respective states, Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, getting outcompeted by national candidates.

CNN National Primary Poll
Howard Dean - 16%
John Kerry - 14%
John Edwards - 13%
Joe Lieberman - 11%
Wesley Clark - 10%
Dick Gephardt - 7%
Al Sharpton - 4%
Dennis Kucinich - 3%
Carol Moseley Braun - 2%
Undecided - 20%


CNN Iowa Democratic Caucus Poll
John Kerry - 21%
John Edwards - 19%
Howard Dean - 18%
Dick Gephardt - 17%
Joe Lieberman - 10%
Wesley Clark - 6%
Dennis Kucinich - 4%
Al Sharpton - 1%
Carol Moseley Braun - 0%
Undecided - 4%

CNN Democratic New Hampshire Primary Poll
John Kerry - 20%
Howard Dean - 18%
Joe Lieberman - 14%
Wesley Clark - 12%
John Edwards - 9%
Dick Gephardt - 7%
Wesley Clark - 5%
Al Sharpton - 3%
Carol Moseley Braun - 2%
Undecided - 10%

CNN Democratic South Carolina Primary Poll
John Edwards - 21%
John Kerry - 19%
Joe Lieberman - 16%
Dick Gephardt - 13%
Wesley Clark - 12%
Al Sharpton - 8%
Carol Moseley Braun - 3%
Dennis Kucinich - 3%
Undecided - 5%

[NyIndy]

DC NONBINDING PRIMARY: DEAN BEATS OUT SHARPTON
January 12th, 2004

The district of Columbia held a Non-Binding referendum for the 2004 Democratic Primary Race. The winner was overwhelmingly Howard Dean. The Governor took 46% of the vote, followed by Al Sharpton who scored 32% of the vote. None of the other Major candidates contested the Primary.

DC NONBINDING PRIMARY RESULTS:
Howard Dean - 46%
Al Sharpton - 32%
Carol Moseley Braun - 13%
Dennis Kucinich - 9%


"I'M SO PROUD OF THE GROUND I BROKE": MOSELEY BRAUN DROPS OUT, EDORSES DEAN
January 15th, 2004

Carol Moseley Braun has dropped out of the race to become the Democratic nominee for president.
The former Senator gave her support to former rival Howard Dean, who she said is the party's best shot at taking President Bush down. It is unknown what kind of effect her endorsement may have due to her low level of support in most polls.


Other Headlines:
Howard Dean Announces Visit to Plains to see Frm. Pres. Carter
PA Senate Poll: Hart +6 in Primary, +1 in the General

[NyIndy]

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS: EDWARDS SHOCKER! GEPHARDT OUT!



John Edwards has pulled off an upset in Iowa today, as all polling showed John Kerry with a lead between 2 - 4%. The victory has given Edwards a boost going into New Hampshire, a state which was not believed to be particularly friendly towards him. Howard Dean had a bad night with a disappointing third. While he was able to gain delegates from the state, something that none of the candidates outside of the main three could claim. Joe Leiberman's support collapsed from double to single digits. Wesley Clark mostly ignored the Hawkeye state and also paid for it. Dick Gephardt also saw a massive fall in support and as a candidate who put all of their eggs in one basket has seen his dreams crushed and has dropped out accordingly.

IOWA CAUCUS RESULTS
(in percent of state delegates received)
John Edwards - 33%
John Kerry- 31%
Howard Dean - 20%
Dick Gephardt - 10%
Joe Lieberman - 3%
Wesley Clark - 2%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%

[NyIndy]

John Edwards is accidentally included twice.

Fixed.

Makes you wonder how big the skeletons will be & the political ramifications.

Primary Season isn't quite done yet!

[NyIndy]

CLARK, LIEBERMAN, EDWARDS, DEAN, KERRY BATTLE FOR NH
January 24th, 2004



Coming into New Hampshire, Multiple candidates are trying to revive campaigns like Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark, while John Edwards is trying to prove he can attract support outside of the South and Midwest. However, these candidates are just battling for a 3rd place finish or at least a decent showing that would prevent them from ending their campaign immediately. Meanwhile, the real battle is between Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and Vermont's Former Governor Howard Dean. The two both hail from neighboring states and are trying to play themselves as candidates who can beat President Bush. Kerry has pointed to his military experience as a reason he will be able to match President Bush on issues of National security. Dean points to his progressive policies as evidence that he will be able to offer real change. Despite his poor showing in Iowa, Dean has swiftly regained support from the state, while Kerry has slipped in polling following being upset in Iowa, leaving the two in a tie.

GW/BATTLEGROUND DEMOCRATIC NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY POLL
John Kerry - 24%
Howard Dean - 24%
John Edwards - 16%
Joe Lieberman - 15%
Wesley Clark - 15%
Al Sharpton - 1%
Undecided - 5%

[NyIndy]

I've replaced the Copyrighted image with one from Wikimedia Commons, sorry about that!

[NyIndy]

I've replaced the Copyrighted image with one from Wikimedia Commons, sorry about that!

Thank you.

Yeah no problem. I was wondering how to tell the difference between copyrighted and non copyrighted pics because that one didn’t have a watermark

[NyIndy]

NH NAILBITER! KERRY SQUEAKS OUT A WIN!
January 28th, 2004



John Kerry managed to eke out a narrow win in New Hampshire, staving off a devastating blow to his campaign that he would have been unlikely to survive. The Howard Dean campaign has received the blow the Kerry camp so narrowly avoided. The Governor has refused to drop out, citing his outperformance of the opinion polling in New Hampshire. No candidate has dropped out and all excluding Al Sharpton have crossed the Delegate threshold.

NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY RESULTS:
John Kerry - 25.6%
Howard Dean - 25.4%
John Edwards - 18%
Joe Leiberman - 15%
Wesley Clark - 15%
Al Sharpton - 1%

[NyIndy]

MELISSA HART RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENT OF PRES. BUSH OVER PRIMARY RIVAL
January 30th, 2004
Representative Melissa Hart has lined up the Republican establishment behind her in the race to replace Senator Arlen Specter, but there have been a few holdouts. While more moderate and establishment candidates have lined up behind the Pittsburgh congresswoman, many conservative thinkers and elected officials have backed more conservative Pat Toomey. The most obvious holdout was until now, the President. Bush has just endorsed Hart and will be holding a campaign event with Hart in her Pittsburgh District.

GOING INTO NEXT SET OF PRIMARIES, KERRY GAINS STEAM BUT SO DOES CLARK
Feburary 2nd, 2004



John Kerry is hoping to put the competition to bed in the newest set of primary states. With Clark coming at him in the south and southwest and Edwards trying to win the states of OK and MO. Kerry's team is trying to keep the momentum they seem to have regained with their New Hampshire win and cement his front runner status. Meanwhile, Governor Howard Dean is mostly just hoping to ignore the majority of the states up for grabs and move on from this week's south-focused primaries, the Governor's weakest region. The Joe Lieberman Campaign meanwhile, seems set for a poor finish and will likely come to an end within the week.

Other Headlines:
It's official! Schwarzenegger wins Gov. Race in CA!
Bush Attempting to expand the electoral map with investments in WA, HI and ME
Olympia Snowe ranked best Senator!

[NyIndy]

I'm going to assume that Blanco (LA), Barbour (MS) & Fletcher (KY) are elected in their respective states in this TL like they were in real life ?

Yes 2003 Gov. Election results are unchanged

[NyIndy]

"SUPER TUESDAY 1:" KERRY TAKES MOST LIEBERMAN OUT

Map Post-Super Tuesday
John Kerry
Howard Dean
John Edwards
Wesley Clark

John Kerry was hoping to use this set of primaries as a launching point from which he could separate himself from the rest of the candidates as a clear front runner. With the exits of Joe Lieberman and Al Sharpton, all of the remaining candidates have reason to be happy. Clark won in AZ and OK while Dean upset both Kerry and Clark in NM, the only state he gave serious attention to in this round of primaries. While Edwards won SC and narrowly lost MO and OK. Kerry was the candidate who won the most delegates and was competitive in almost every state. The consensus seems to be that Kerry is in no way inevitable, but that the divided opposition leaves him in a much better place that he would be against one candidate.

CNN National Democratic Primary Poll
John Kerry - 30%
John Edwards - 23%
Howard Dean - 22%
Wesley Clark - 17%
Undecided - 8%