Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 22, 2019, 12:37:28 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  IN-AG 2020: Who can defeat the tainted AG Curtis Hill?
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: IN-AG 2020: Who can defeat the tainted AG Curtis Hill?  (Read 1198 times)
Sestak stands with Drag Queen Story Hour
jk2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,083


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: May 01, 2019, 01:56:10 am »

You should try. I think you'd make a very compelling GE candidate for the voters of Indiana.
Logged
Tekken_Guy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,148
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: May 01, 2019, 07:23:30 pm »

I’d like to see Attorney General Trey Hollingsworth. That way Erin Houchin can get her revenge.
Logged
StateBoiler
fe234
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,650


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: May 02, 2019, 08:05:05 am »
« Edited: May 02, 2019, 08:32:04 am by StateBoiler »

Besides a GOP primary opponent... no one.

The average voter in Indiana has no idea that Curtis Hill is a Weak Incumbent™.
*ding ding ding*

This race has IN-9 written all over it: vulnerable to a Democratic challenge under conventional wisdom, which is increasingly shown to be worth very little as Indiana settles comfortably in the Republican column down ballot.

You're from Indiana, explain why.
In simplest terms, because Indiana Democrats are losing ground everywhere except the suburbs, and demographic change is not rapid enough to make up for the collapse in the Southern part of the state. Those rural Southern counties are what allowed Joe Donnelly to win and John Gregg to nearly defeat Mike Pence in 2012. In 2018, they voted overwhelmingly for Braun—and Donnelly was much better funded, better known, more experienced running a statewide campaign, and benefitted from more media attention on his race than whoever the party ends up running against Curtis Hill in 2020. For whatever reason, these areas are no longer willing to vote for a Blue Dog candidate the way they were even ten years ago; chalk it up to Trump, or generational change, or the state GOP being mostly competent and disinclined to flights of conservative fantasy legislating compared to their counterparts in Kansas or Wisconsin: it comes to the same thing. Hill might lose to a challenger at the State Convention, but he'll win reelection in the fall if he doesn't, even if the margin of this race is somewhat narrower than Holcomb's reelection likely will be.

Partly, this comes down to what Joshua said: most people aren't following this scandal closely enough for it to change their vote. I'd be surprised if a majority of Hoosiers could independently name the Attorney General or, vice versa, tell you exactly who Curtis Hill is or describe the allegations against him with any degree of specificity. That being the case, it's hard to see where the fuel for a "Republicans for [insert Dem nominee here]" campaign is going to come from. Glenda Ritz managed to pull off a win in the 2012 Superintendent race—in an environment much more favorable to Democrats than 2020 is likely to be—thanks to the support of teachers' unions and parents upset over the Common Core. Who are the anti-Hill Republicans who are going to bring the same degree of passion and commitment to this race next year? Unlike the SoPI, the State Attorney General doesn't have a direct impact on most people's lives. We've already seen that politicians and voters are willing to ignore sexual harassment charges as it suits their narrative. Especially considering the charges were originally made two years before the election, I doubt this will be a burning issue in most voters' minds—except maybe for those who were never going to vote for Hill anyways.

Finally, the state Democratic party is an organizational wreck and is unlikely to have the funds to mount a serious challenge to Hill, especially with a popular incumbent like Holcomb leading the opposing slate.

This. It would take a Democratic landslide nationwide to take down Hill, especially considering Holcomb will likely wipe the floor with his opponent.

Holcomb literally only won by 6 in a Republican tilting national environment, no more than the amount that Donnelly lost by in a Democratic leaning national environment. He is not Safe.

He "only won by 6" when it looked the week of the election like Gregg had a good shot at winning. The Trump landslide kind of condemned Gregg, but he was the best candidate of the 3 major Democrats running statewide in 2016 between him, Hillary, and Bayh.

As far as this race, I think this is the only noise the Democrats will attempt to make statewide in 2020. Brian Howey has reported that Democrats are considering putting up a sacrificial lamb for governor and choose to focus on Attorney General. It's to the point now that some think Buttigieg is going to use a failed presidential run to run for governor, which I don't see. I think Buttigieg is trying to get out of Indiana as fast as he can politically.

Holcomb had asked Hill to resign after the House investigation into it. This was refused. It's part of an intra-party squabble that's not been resolved yet. Hill was considering running against Holcomb in 2020 in a primary pre-scandal, and I think the scandal as well as horrid internal polling numbers Hill backers ran showed that's not going to happen. Hill gets more interest than he would otherwise because he's an elected black Republican, but if you didn't follow politics intensely, which most people don't, the voters in 2016 didn't know he was black, they think he's just a guy named Curtis. Harry Truman is stating as much.

Last tea leaves I saw on it was people in the state GOP were asking Todd Rokita to consider running for Attorney General. I think Hill being on the ballot in 2020 is opposed by Holcomb, State Chairman Kyle Hupfer, and State House Speaker Brian Bosma. They need a candidate to put forward at the Convention however.
Logged
StateBoiler
fe234
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,650


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: May 02, 2019, 08:17:05 am »

Quote
4. Rokita challenge to AG Hill?

 Former congressman Todd Rokita issued a "no comment" after we asked if he would challenge Attorney General Curtis Hill in the June 2020 Republican Convention. Sources tell HPI that Rokita has been approached by Republicans inside and outside of Indianapolis about challenging Hill, who is facing an Indiana Supreme Court disciplinary action over allegations from four women of sexual harassment. Since those allegations, Gov. Holcomb and the GOP hierarchy have called for him to resign. Rokita won a four-way convention floor fight for secretary of state in 2002. Republicans are concerned that Hill could provide a similar beachhead for Democrats. When Rokita was nominated in 2002, Democrats held the governors office and House. John Westercamp, an attorney with Bose McKinney, is also weighing a GOP convention challenge to Hill. We’re hearing that Democrats would like Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott Jr. to seek their nomination.

This is a little more than a month old.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC