Most Dependable?
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Author Topic: Most Dependable?  (Read 5821 times)
migrendel
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« on: May 09, 2004, 08:32:31 PM »
Now imagine the situation. The Democrats nominate a person on the far edge of their party. Their prospects look bleak. And on election day, they lose dramatically. Now, what counties, particularly urban ones, can this candidate win? I'm particularly interested, and I need feedback quickly.
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WMS
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« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2004, 09:52:11 PM »
Santa Fe and maybe Taos County in New Mexico. Nothing else, however.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2004, 07:12:42 AM »
All of the cities, and Macon county.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2004, 07:35:19 AM »
Logan County WV... possibly McDowell and Boone as well...
You'd win Richmond City, VA... some of the other Indie Cities as well... possibly Buchanan County (normally people there would vote for a dead dog if it was a Democrat)... but I dunno...
Durham County, NC... I think...
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Nation
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2004, 09:47:18 AM »
Prince George's county should go reliably Dem.
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Harry
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2004, 09:32:17 PM »
Washington DC
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opebo
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2004, 10:31:53 PM »
In Missouri?   Only St. Louis City - in effect its own county - in a worst case scenario.  Check out the 1972 map for MO.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2004, 10:41:59 AM »
Quote from: opebo on May 19, 2004, 10:31:53 PM
In Missouri?   Only St. Louis City - in effect its own county - in a worst case scenario.  Check out the 1972 map for MO.

Yeah Migrendel, just take a look at the 1972 map and take a bit of chance variation and realignment into account, and you got it.
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BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2004, 12:07:01 PM »
St. Louis county, Minnesota (which contains Duluth) is probably the most reliably Democratic 90+% white county in the country (it's actually 94.4% white!) No Democrat could lose there if he tried. Ramsey county (St. Paul would also be safe). I don't know about Hennepin county (Minneapolis), since it contains much more suburbs than Ramsey it's not as Democratic, even though Minneapolis will vote Republican when hell freezes over. Democrats have lost Hennepin in the past, but I don't think any current ones could.
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Beet
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2004, 03:18:13 PM »
Quote from: Nation on May 10, 2004, 09:47:18 AM
Prince George's county should go reliably Dem.

Yeah, PG County and Baltimore.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2004, 05:34:22 PM »
wayne county most likely although if they are like wacko liberal even wayne county may go republican it would depend on the republican candidate's positions
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BRTD
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2004, 07:54:18 PM »
Quote from: 9iron768 on May 20, 2004, 05:34:22 PM
wayne county most likely although if they are like wacko liberal even wayne county may go republican it would depend on the republican candidate's positions

Even Engler lost Wayne county when he won in a landslide winning every other county in the state. If it didn't go Rep then, it never will.
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English
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2004, 06:50:38 AM »
There's a few I can think of.
Bronx, Chicago (Cook Co?), San Fransisco, Seattle (King Co?), Brooklyn, Queens, DC, Cleveland (can't remember the Co. name), Boston, Newark, Baltimore, Philly, Detroit (Wayne Co?), St Louis, New Orleans, Portland OR, Manhatten.
All counties consisting primarily of inner cities would stay Democrat come hell or high water. King may go GOP in a landslide due to the suburbs. Bronx would probably the last county to ever go GOP.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2004, 11:04:57 AM »
Quote from: English on May 21, 2004, 06:50:38 AM
There's a few I can think of.
Bronx, Chicago (Cook Co?), San Fransisco, Seattle (King Co?), Brooklyn, Queens, DC, Cleveland (can't remember the Co. name), Boston, Newark, Baltimore, Philly, Detroit (Wayne Co?), St Louis, New Orleans, Portland OR, Manhatten.
All counties consisting primarily of inner cities would stay Democrat come hell or high water. King may go GOP in a landslide due to the suburbs. Bronx would probably the last county to ever go GOP.


No. Macon is.
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BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2004, 01:45:50 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2004, 01:46:54 PM by Better Red Than Dead »
That was just one election. I think in a case where a Repuclian won every county except one, he'd take Macon before Bronx because Macon is still very socially conservative.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2004, 11:33:48 AM »
orange county nc.

also some counties in the 'black belt' of nc, northampton, halifax, warren..

and robeson county in southeast nc, where the population is around 37% indian, 33% white, 30% black.
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Giant Saguaro
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« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2004, 01:17:43 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2004, 01:29:38 PM by TheGiantSaguaro »
Add to these Apache county in Arizona. All they check for is to see that you have a D next to your name. It's Native American and it's more Dem than Yavapai is Republican, and that's saying something. It's one of the few rural heavily Dem strongholds out of AZ, NV, UT, and CO. It even went Mondale in 1984. That's the measuring stick - if it went Mondale in '84, it'll go for any Dem, which Apache does with consistency.
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Harry
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2004, 11:22:49 PM »
I still say Washington DC
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2004, 11:45:21 PM »
Quote from: Better Red Than Dead on May 20, 2004, 07:54:18 PM
Quote from: 9iron768 on May 20, 2004, 05:34:22 PM
wayne county most likely although if they are like wacko liberal even wayne county may go republican it would depend on the republican candidate's positions

Even Engler lost Wayne county when he won in a landslide winning every other county in the state. If it didn't go Rep then, it never will.


Engler only lost it by 14%.  Fieger was not that liberal he was just an idiot.  If you had a nomminee that was far left he Could lose wayne county, although it depends on your definition of far left.  Bush lost wayne county by 40%, and Engler was more conservative than him.
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Dave from Michigan
9iron768
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2004, 11:46:28 PM »
Quote from: Better Red Than Dead on May 20, 2004, 07:54:18 PM
Quote from: 9iron768 on May 20, 2004, 05:34:22 PM
wayne county most likely although if they are like wacko liberal even wayne county may go republican it would depend on the republican candidate's positions

Even Engler lost Wayne county when he won in a landslide winning every other county in the state. If it didn't go Rep then, it never will.


Engler only lost it by 14%.  Fieger was not that liberal he was just an idiot.  If you had a nomminee that was far left he Could lose wayne county, although it depends on your definition of far left.  Bush lost wayne county by 40%, and Engler was more conservative than him.
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Nym90
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« Reply #20 on: May 28, 2004, 11:27:49 AM »
True, Engler "only" lost it by 14%, but he won statewide by 24%. So Wayne was 38% more Democratic than the state as a whole, thus basically the Republicans would have to get 70% of the vote in Michigan in order to win Wayne County. Since Michigan is about 5% more Democratic than the national average, the GOP presidential candidate would probably have to win 72-73% of the vote nationwide to carry Wayne.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #21 on: May 31, 2004, 05:30:33 AM »
Philadelphia County, Mercer County NJ (Trenton and Princeton University).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2004, 02:00:18 PM »
I love the fact that Multnomah OR, which includes Portland, last voted for a Republican in a year when they lost - 1960. They voted Nixon over Kennedy but not over McGovern!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #23 on: June 01, 2004, 04:10:00 AM »
Quote from: Better Red Than Dead on May 21, 2004, 01:45:50 PM
That was just one election. I think in a case where a Repuclian won every county except one, he'd take Macon before Bronx because Macon is still very socially conservative.

So what? The vast majority people in Macon are black. Just about everyone else is a Yella' Dawg.
Macon would vote for a donkey if it had a D after it's name.
Another county: Shannon, SD.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #24 on: June 01, 2004, 03:10:25 PM »

Big Native American population I seem to remember.
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