What needs to happen to see another 1988 (consecutive third term)?
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  What needs to happen to see another 1988 (consecutive third term)?
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Author Topic: What needs to happen to see another 1988 (consecutive third term)?  (Read 700 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: April 25, 2019, 11:35:39 AM »

America has not seen a third consecutive presidential term for a political party since 1988. A lot of people feel that Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 had no mandate because of Ross Perot, when in fact Clinton had a electoral message. A GOP 1992 fourth term would have been historic.

**2000 and 2016** were seen as favorable Democratic environments, but the Republicans won the electoral college.

Bush 1988 was the first consecutive victory since the 1948 Dewey vs. Truman election post-WWII/post FDR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_United_States_presidential_election
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2019, 01:01:49 PM »

This will likely happen the next time a Democrat wins the Presidency, due to demographics. I think Republicans will be in the wilderness for at least a few cycles before they change significantly enough to win a Presidential election again.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2019, 01:07:30 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2019, 01:47:36 PM by bronz4141 »

This will likely happen the next time a Democrat wins the Presidency, due to demographics. I think Republicans will be in the wilderness for at least a few cycles before they change significantly enough to win a Presidential election again.

I can see it happening,but I think the GOP will rebound in the 2030s.

I can see a D 2020/2024/2028 or a D 2024/2028/2032

Then DeSantis or some other Republican wins.

Also if Hispanic immigrants "assimilate" to American culture and live a "white cultural type", Democrats may be upset.
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SuperCow
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« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2019, 02:52:25 PM »

Bush 1988 was the first consecutive victory since the 1948 Dewey vs. Truman election post-WWII/post FDR.

And that was 5 elections in a row, though FDR won 4 of them.
1932, 1936, 1940, 1944 - 1948

A significant number (not necessarily all) of these things have to happen in a publicly favorable way:

1.) Peace deal with North Korea. Some kind of compromise with Russia in Eastern Europe is a bonus.
2.) Positive trade deal with China. UK & Euro zone deal would be a bonus.
3.) Illegal immigration issue is mostly resolved or heavily diminished
4.) Economy is strong. If there is a recession, it happens after the 2020 election and is fully recovered before 2022.
5.) Current AG finds all sorts of crimes to indict that are Democrats.
6.) Democrats come out of the closet and embrace socialism.
7.) Budget becomes balanced or surplus before 2023.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2019, 02:35:39 PM »

Even if Trump wins in 2020 (which I have as "unlikely but plausible" at the moment), it's very hard to imagine the GOP pulling three consecutive victories at the moment.

Pence would struggle 1 on 1 vs a Democrat, especially by 2024.
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« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2019, 04:19:24 PM »

Biden wins, retires in 2024. Young, charismatic VP wins 8 years.
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« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2019, 07:19:12 PM »

Democrats could have done it in 2000 and 2016 if not for some tactical errors made by their campaigns back then (yes, external factors also played a role, but I'm pretty sure that there were things within the campaigns' control which could have been done to ensure victory, even with those external factors still in play). This means that after the next two-term Democratic president (assuming that the president himself/herself is popular in the final months of his/her second term), the Democratic party needs to run a candidate who is in touch with the mood of the national electorate, not just the Washington DC elitist bubble, and the candidate they run has to avoid unforced errors during his/her campaign.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2019, 12:37:01 AM »

This will likely happen the next time a Democrat wins the Presidency, due to demographics. I think Republicans will be in the wilderness for at least a few cycles before they change significantly enough to win a Presidential election again.

You people simply put way too much stock into this. Demographics will always take second place to things like economic trends, scandal, and the popularity (or lack thereof) of legislation passed by the incumbent president/party.

No amount of demographic advantage would save an incumbent who is currently facing a recession. Period.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2019, 10:11:01 PM »

The next consecutive term for will be for the GOP. If the Democrats continue to embrace socialism and radical leftist ideas they will not get the White House back for a long time. Trump will win in 2020 by a slim margin. If the GOP chooses Nikki Haley as the nominee in 2024 it will be a huge slap in the face to the Democratic Party. Nikki Haley will win by a landslide as the radical left embraces socialism. The only way Democrats can take back the White House is if they become moderate.

Why don't you ask Presidents John Kerry & Hillary Clinton about your suggested path?
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2019, 10:22:44 PM »

The next consecutive term for will be for the GOP. If the Democrats continue to embrace socialism and radical leftist ideas they will not get the White House back for a long time. Trump will win in 2020 by a slim margin. If the GOP chooses Nikki Haley as the nominee in 2024 it will be a huge slap in the face to the Democratic Party. Nikki Haley will win by a landslide as the radical left embraces socialism. The only way Democrats can take back the White House is if they become moderate.

Lol, 8 year itches are real
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Continential
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2019, 02:12:25 PM »

The next consecutive term for will be for the GOP. If the Democrats continue to embrace socialism and radical leftist ideas they will not get the White House back for a long time. Trump will win in 2020 by a slim margin. If the GOP chooses Nikki Haley as the nominee in 2024 it will be a huge slap in the face to the Democratic Party. Nikki Haley will win by a landslide as the radical left embraces socialism. The only way Democrats can take back the White House is if they become moderate.

Why don't you ask Presidents John Kerry & Hillary Clinton about your suggested path?

I can't because they were never presidents.
You realize that that is sarcasm and that means that Clinton/Kerry campaigned on the fact their candidates are radicals.
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