Democrats Senate Odds post 2020

[PoliticalShelter]

So say the Democrats manage to win back the presidency in 2020. However it was a fairly narrow victory and not enough to take back the senate (let’s say they manage to get to 48 or 49 senate seats).

In that scenario when can you realistically see the democrats winning back the senate?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI and PA are gone and perhaps, NC

[dw93]

2026 if a Republican beats an incumbent Democrat in 2024. If you have two Democratic terms from 2021-2029, 2032 or 34 at the earliest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 GOPers aren't getting reelected in 2022

[Orser67]

Most likely in the next mid-term cycle for a Republican president, though (especially for a two-term Democratic presidency) it's possible that Republicans could weather the storm like Democrats did in 2010 and Republicans did in 1982.

With that said, it's worth noting that Republicans did re-take the Senate in 2002, so there is some historical precedent for the president's party winning control of the Senate. It seems very unlikely, but I think the chance is closer to 5% than to 0%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems can win Senate in 2022, with a Dem incumbent, Dems are gonna reelect Evers and Fetterman can win another Dem term as Gov, putting WI & Pa seats in Dem column. IA is vulnerable as well, as Reynolds and Grassley retires

[QAnonKelly]

If Trump wins next year, the 2022 cycle would be an absolute bloodbath for the Republicans. They’d have to defend open seats in GA, IA, PA, NC,  and WI.

[Politician]

If Trump wins next year, the 2022 cycle would be an absolute bloodbath for the Republicans. They’d have to defend open seats in GA, IA, PA, NC,  and WI.

Agreed. My 2022 Senate Ratings would look like this:

Honestly though, this might be generous to Republicans in WI, IA, NV, and GA.

[S019]

2026 if a Republican beats an incumbent Democrat in 2024. If you have two Democratic terms from 2021-2029, 2032 or 34 at the earliest.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bill Nelson can’t win in a blue wave year I can’t see how Rubio loses in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Portmsn can lose, to Tim Ryan, since Tim Ryan isnt gonna be Prez or VEEP..

[tuckfrump69]

If Dem lose 2024 then 2026, if not, next midterm with a GOP president

[SuperCow]

If Bill Nelson can’t win in a blue wave year I can’t see how Rubio loses in 2022.

Rubio is pretty safe. He's very popular in Florida. Toomey is vulnerable in PA. NC seat will be open in 2022 and is vulnerable for a flip. Also Ron Johnson in WI. If it is a really bad year for GOP maybe Portman in OH, but doubtful. Something weird could happen in Alaska if Murkowski is primaried again, but probably not. GA only becomes vulnerable is Isakson retires, and then you have to get a bad GOP candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Xing]

If Democrats win in 2020 without taking the Senate, they're probably going to be locked out of the Senate until at least 2026, maybe 2028. If Trump wins, of course, they have a very good shot at taking the Senate in 2022, assuming the Senate make-up after the 2020 election isn't 55 R - 45 D, or something like that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Democrats win in 2020 without taking the Senate, they're probably going to be locked out of the Senate until at least 2026, maybe 2028. If Trump wins, of course, they have a very good shot at taking the Senate in 2022, assuming the Senate make-up after the 2020 election isn't 55 R - 45 D, or something like that.

That is pessimistic, that's only when a prez approval rating is below 45% when Prez loses seats. Obama, Dubya and Trump lost seats due to those approvals.  If its 50 or higher, like in 1998 and 2002, Dems will hold their ground.

[OBD]

It's going to be a while. Really no good opportunities especially if there's a 2 term Dem presidency.

[😥]

My 2022 Senate rating:

1) If Trump wins in 2020

2) If Trump loses in 2020

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020 will be close. I expect 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate.

..

Biden as the nominee can make upsets in AL, MS-B and TX happen.  I am not giving up on Senate until December

[Frenchrepublican]

2030 or beyond.

2020 : Dems win CO + AZ but lose AL = 48 D seats
2022 (a democratic midterm) : Dems lose AZ + NH = 46 D seats
2024 : Dems lose OH + MT + WV = 43 D seats

If 2026 is a democratic midterm : Dems could lose MI/NH/MN = 40 to 43 D seats
If 2026 is a republican midterm : Dems could win NC/ME/GA = 43 to 46 D seats


Very difficult to see how democrats rebound before 2030. The main problem for them is that if they have the White House in 2022 they won't be able to benefit from a favourable map because the climate will likely be against them. In 2024 democrats will have a second problem as they will have to defend three very vulnerable seats.

[Frenchrepublican]

2020 will be close. I expect 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Senate.

..

Biden as the nominee can make upsets in AL, MS-B and TX happen.  I am not giving up on Senate until December

Lol. Stop with your trolling. AL AND MS WON'T HAVE A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR AFTER 2021. AND NO, BIDEN IS NOT WINNING AL NOR MS

[Frenchrepublican]

My 2022 Senate rating:

1) If Trump wins in 2020

2) If Trump loses in 2020

AR/IN/MO/KY won't be competitive even if 2022 is as much horrible than 2018

[S019]

My 2022 Senate rating:

1) If Trump wins in 2020

2) If Trump loses in 2020

AR/IN/MO/KY won't be competitive even if 2022 is as much horrible than 2018

Actually MO coukd, because Roy Blunt is terrible at campaigning, but he won't actually lose

[Frenchrepublican]

My 2022 Senate rating:

1) If Trump wins in 2020

2) If Trump loses in 2020

AR/IN/MO/KY won't be competitive even if 2022 is as much horrible than 2018

Actually MO coukd, because Roy Blunt is terrible at campaigning, but he won't actually lose

Democrats have no bench in the state. Kander doesn’t seem interested by a new campaign. Anyway political polarisation has only become more stronger since 2016