OH-ONU poll about 2020, candidates and other issues

[Tender Branson]

Lots of data incl. "approval" ratings for each candidate and major politician in the US, but I guess they are mixing up approval and favorability several times.

For example, there is no reason to ask for approval of Andrew Yang or someone => not an officeholder.

Trump vs. Generic D is D+7 for example.

https://www.onu.edu/files/news/northern_poll_topline_report.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, but Atlas told me that OH is guaranteed to vote several points to the left of IA.

[Politician]

ohio is safe r guys

[heatcharger]

Wow, fascinating set of "approval" numbers:

Trump: 36/53
Biden: 37/34
Sanders: 31/43
Warren: 21/42
O'Rourke: 17/28
Harris: 19/29
Buttigieg: 14/16
AOC: 19/42

Among Democrats:

Biden: 66/12
Sanders: 55/18
Warren: 43/16
Harris: 41/8
O'Rourke: 35/10
Buttigieg: 27/5

Which Democrat do you think has the best chance to beat Donald Trump?

Among Democrats (doesn't add up to 100% for some reason?):

Biden: 58%
Sanders 30%
O'Rourke: 17%
Harris: 13%
Warren: 12%
Buttigieg: 7%

Looks like we've got some 20th century thinkers in this party!

[Frenchrepublican]

ohio is safe r guys

Don’t dream too much, 9% of democrats are undecided while 24% of republicans are undecided, meaning that the vast majority of undecided voters are conservative who will back Trump in the end.

[Frenchrepublican]

Governor Cordray and Congressman O’Connor agree with this poll

Anyway Trump at -17 doesn’t make any sense.

[lfromnj]

Fyi Trumps approval on election day was +4 in Ohio in 2018
https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OH&type=G
It's not -17

[Stranger in a strange land]

OH is definitely likely R, but the possibility of Trump losing it vs Sanders or even Biden shouldn't be ruled out.

[Frenchrepublican]

Fyi Trumps approval on election day was +4 in Ohio in 2018
https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis?filter=OH&type=G
It's not -17

Trump is at -9 nationwide, so it’s very difficult to see how he can be at -17 in a state where he did 10 points better than nationwide.
I remain where I am, in a Biden vs Trump matchup, Trump wins 54/45

[The Mikado]

There's still room for Trump's margin to come down considerably in OH even if he still wins it comfortably. Trump winning OH by, say, 4 or 5 rather than 8 seems pretty easily on the table.

[RI]

>uni poll with no track record

[IceSpear]

Yes I am sure that Trump's approval is far worse in Ohio than it is nationally. Perhaps he had a surge in California to make up the difference.

[Senator Incitatus]

Ohio is Lean/Likely R in a close race, but we don't know yet that 2020 will be close.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Yes I am sure that Trump's approval is far worse in Ohio than it is nationally. Perhaps he had a surge in California to make up the difference.

Clearly Trump has seen a huge surge in Texas as a result of Cruz-hating Texans realizing now just how much they actually love the GOP because of their extremely popular senator John Cornyn.

[IceSpear]

Yes I am sure that Trump's approval is far worse in Ohio than it is nationally. Perhaps he had a surge in California to make up the difference.

Clearly Trump has seen a huge surge in Texas as a result of Cruz-hating Texans realizing now just how much they actually love the GOP because of their extremely popular senator John Cornyn.

I heard he's surged in New York thanks to the constant news appearances of America's Mayor reminding them of 9/11.

[Sirius_]

Governor Cordray and Congressman O’Connor agree with poll.

Senator Renacci agrees with this statement.

[Frenchrepublican]

Governor Cordray and Congressman O’Connor agree with poll.

Senator Renacci agrees with this statement.

Trump had a +4 approval rate in Ohio in November 2018, which explains why democrats lost all but one statewide race, Renacci didn’t lost because of Trump but because he was a lazy, Sacconesque candidate. Had Husted or Mandel run, Brown would have joined Donnelly and McCaskill in the defeat

[Skunk]

Yes I am sure that Trump's approval is far worse in Ohio than it is nationally. Perhaps he had a surge in California to make up the difference.

Clearly Trump has seen a huge surge in Texas as a result of Cruz-hating Texans realizing now just how much they actually love the GOP because of their extremely popular senator John Cornyn.

I heard he's surged in New York thanks to the constant news appearances of America's Mayor reminding them of 9/11.

Not to mention the bump he's received from the GOP attacking AOC and Joey Salads running for Congress.

[Sirius_]

Governor Cordray and Congressman O’Connor agree with poll.

Senator Renacci agrees with this statement.

Trump had a +4 approval rate in Ohio in November 2018, which explains why democrats lost all but one statewide race, Renacci didn’t lost because of Trump but because he was a lazy, Sacconesque candidate. Had Husted or Mandel run, Brown would have joined Donnelly and McCaskill in the defeat

Or maybe it's because one election doesn't determine another election. Also Trump being +4 in November is irrelevant, especially since this poll shows him underwater.

[Frenchrepublican]

Governor Cordray and Congressman O’Connor agree with poll.

Senator Renacci agrees with this statement.

Trump had a +4 approval rate in Ohio in November 2018, which explains why democrats lost all but one statewide race, Renacci didn’t lost because of Trump but because he was a lazy, Sacconesque candidate. Had Husted or Mandel run, Brown would have joined Donnelly and McCaskill in the defeat

Or maybe it's because one election doesn't determine another election. Also Trump being +4 in November is irrelevant, especially since this poll shows him underwater.

Lol. Exit polls are far more accurate that this poll which is by the way coming from a totally unknown pollster. Now if you believe that Trump is at -17 in Ohio I have a bridge to sell you

[😥]

With Biden as Democratic nominee Ohio is winniable for Democrats (rating: Tossup, closer to Tilt D, than Tilt R)

[😥]

Governor Cordray and Congressman O’Connor agree with poll.

Senator Renacci agrees with this statement.

Trump had a +4 approval rate in Ohio in November 2018, which explains why democrats lost all but one statewide race, Renacci didn’t lost because of Trump but because he was a lazy, Sacconesque candidate. Had Husted or Mandel run, Brown would have joined Donnelly and McCaskill in the defeat

Or maybe it's because one election doesn't determine another election. Also Trump being +4 in November is irrelevant, especially since this poll shows him underwater.

Lol. Exit polls are far more accurate that this poll which is by the way coming from a totally unknown pollster. Now if you believe that Trump is at -17 in Ohio I have a bridge to sell you

Brown had win in 2018 anyway (include with Husted or Mandel as Republican nominee). Brown's victory did not depend on Trump's popularity in Ohio. As you can see, all Democratic Senators who lost in the elections in 2018 had a negative or slightly positive (up to +5) approval rating. If McCaskill were more popular then I'm sure that we would see her in the Senate now. Same with others
 
.

[Frenchrepublican]

Governor Cordray and Congressman O’Connor agree with poll.

Senator Renacci agrees with this statement.

Trump had a +4 approval rate in Ohio in November 2018, which explains why democrats lost all but one statewide race, Renacci didn’t lost because of Trump but because he was a lazy, Sacconesque candidate. Had Husted or Mandel run, Brown would have joined Donnelly and McCaskill in the defeat

Or maybe it's because one election doesn't determine another election. Also Trump being +4 in November is irrelevant, especially since this poll shows him underwater.

Lol. Exit polls are far more accurate that this poll which is by the way coming from a totally unknown pollster. Now if you believe that Trump is at -17 in Ohio I have a bridge to sell you

Brown had win in 2018 anyway (include with Husted or Mandel as Republican nominee). Brown's victory did not depend on Trump's popularity in Ohio. As you can see, all Democratic Senators who lost in the elections in 2018 had a negative or slightly positive (up to +5) approval rating. If McCaskill were more popular then I'm sure that we would see her in the Senate now. Same with others
 
.

Brown had a positive approval rating because he was left unchallenged. Renacci was outspent by a 5/1 ratio and Brown was able to define himself in a positive way. Had he faced Mandel he would have faced millions of dollars of negative ads and his popularity would have been greatly diminished. And in my opinion he would have lost in a upset like Nelson by a very small margin

[Frenchrepublican]

With Biden as Democratic nominee Ohio is winniable for Democrats (rating: Tossup, closer to Tilt D, than Tilt R)

I don't think so. Ohio is now the most republican ''Big state'' as TX and GA will likely vote to the left of OH in 2020. In 2018 the state was R+13 when you look at the congressional vote (despite the fact that democrats had credible candidates in a few districts like OH12 or OH14).
With Biden it's likely R and with Harris it would be Safe R. The problem Dems are facing in this state is a structural one : they are losing groud in rural areas and small towns (which are now voting more and more like similar communities in TN) but also in smaller metro areas like Canton, at the same time (and contrary to MI or PA) they are not gaining ground in exurban counties (Licking, Clermont counties). The only areas where D are gaining ground are inner suburbs (see Franklin and Hamilton counties) and there are not enough of them to overcome their losses elsewhere.

My guess is that Trump will defeat Biden 54/45

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is losing to Bernie in the early states. Natl polls dont matter. Bernie can win