2019 New Jersey State Assembly Election

[Senator Incitatus]

Figured I would set up a thread for this since it's one of a few statewide elections this year. Will post my own preview of the race in due time.

[Dead Parrot]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

[LabourJersey]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

[lfromnj]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

[Suburbia]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Most likely. The NJ GOP establishment lives here; Bramnick, Kean Jr., Palatucci, Bagger.

If this seat goes D, then the NJ GOP will have to rebuild in the rural areas.

Low turnout election by the way.

[Dead Parrot]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Voting history of LD-21:

2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8

I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

How did Menendez do in LD-25? It's my district and I know Clinton squeaked it, but my GOP assemblymen and senator were re-elected the year after, though by only 5 points, which is far closer than they're used to. Sherrill almost certainly carried the parts of the district in CD-11, but at the same time Sherrill was sweeping Morris County GOP county officials were re-elected handily. While the people here might like Mikie and national Dems, they still despise Trenton Dems, although the top-of-the-ballot Dem swings may start trickling down soon, so I'd call it Lean R, but closer to Likely R than tossup.

[Dead Parrot]

How did Menendez do in LD-25? It's my district and I know Clinton squeaked it, but my GOP assemblymen and senator were re-elected the year after, though by only 5 points, which is far closer than they're used to. Sherrill almost certainly carried the parts of the district in CD-11, but at the same time Sherrill was sweeping Morris County GOP county officials were re-elected handily. While the people here might like Mikie and national Dems, they still despise Trenton Dems, although the top-of-the-ballot Dem swings may start trickling down soon, so I'd call it Lean R, but closer to Likely R than tossup.

Voting history of LD-25:

2012 Pres: Romney +8.3
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +8.3
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +10.5
2013 Gov: Christie +42.0
2014 Sen: Bell +10.3
2016 Pres: Clinton +0.2
2017 Gov: Guadagno +6.3
2018 Sen: Hugin +6.1

The Republicans are clearly favored in this race, but there is clear potential for a Democratic upset, particularly if the activist infrastructure that developed around the Malinowski/Sherrill campaigns get involved. Interestingly, LD-25 was one of the few districts where the non-incumbent Democratic state legislature candidates outran Phil Murphy in 2017, which kinda confuses me. Does Lisa Bhimani have some kind of special appeal?

[HarrisonL]

Very excited for our elections.

[LabourJersey]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Voting history of LD-21:

2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8

I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.

The point about the turnout is fair, and I also wouldn't be surprised if Bramnick were to hold on but Munoz lose to one of the Democrats running.

[Dead Parrot]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Voting history of LD-21:

2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8

I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.

There was a Kyrillos-Menendez ‘18 seat? LMAO. No wonder Kean is trying to get out of there

On a somewhat related note, it's interesting how so much of the NJ GOP leadership originates from well-off suburbs that are rapidly trending away from them in the age of Trump, while a good portion of the state Dem leadership originates from WWC areas that are trending less quickly away from the Dems. The way things are going, there's a real possibility, however small, that there could be a "double-Portillo" in 2021 in which Sweeney and Kean both lose their seats.

[lfromnj]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Voting history of LD-21:

2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8

I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.

There was a Kyrillos-Menendez ‘18 seat? LMAO. No wonder Kean is trying to get out of there

Yeah both Senate leaders represent an Obama Trump and Romney Clinton district in NJ.

[Senator Incitatus]

Glad to see this thread is taking off.

The only thing I currently have to add is that I think the six South Jersey seats will be more competitive than Lean-Likely D. South Jersey has been trending hard Republican (with those trends even continuing for Hugin, a social liberal) and Democrats there hate Murphy. If Republicans get the right candidates, they should be very strong in all three districts.

Agree that Munoz and Bramnick are in serious trouble. I could also see Bhimani sneaking into the seat left open by MPC. Other suburban districts with an outside shot of being competitive are LD11 and LD13. LD14 will also be interesting to watch, since the two largest towns (Monroe and Hamilton) are trending pretty strongly Republican relative to the state/area, but both incumbents are probably too personally popular to be peeled off even if Murphy nosedives.

Summary: The Democratic majority is extremely safe, but the super-majority they currently hold by one seat is in question. ±2 seats in either direction when all is said and done. I'll try to write up specific match-ups as the candidates become better known.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

How did Menendez do in LD-25? It's my district and I know Clinton squeaked it, but my GOP assemblymen and senator were re-elected the year after, though by only 5 points, which is far closer than they're used to. Sherrill almost certainly carried the parts of the district in CD-11, but at the same time Sherrill was sweeping Morris County GOP county officials were re-elected handily. While the people here might like Mikie and national Dems, they still despise Trenton Dems, although the top-of-the-ballot Dem swings may start trickling down soon, so I'd call it Lean R, but closer to Likely R than tossup.

Voting history of LD-25:

2012 Pres: Romney +8.3
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +8.3
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +10.5
2013 Gov: Christie +42.0
2014 Sen: Bell +10.3
2016 Pres: Clinton +0.2
2017 Gov: Guadagno +6.3
2018 Sen: Hugin +6.1

The Republicans are clearly favored in this race, but there is clear potential for a Democratic upset, particularly if the activist infrastructure that developed around the Malinowski/Sherrill campaigns get involved. Interestingly, LD-25 was one of the few districts where the non-incumbent Democratic state legislature candidates outran Phil Murphy in 2017, which kinda confuses me. Does Lisa Bhimani have some kind of special appeal?

Hmm yeah looking at these numbers I'm tempted to call it Likely R, but you're right that Bhimani seems to get some extra mileage for some reason. I'm not really sure why, but she did seem to have a large sign/campaign presence, and her background as a doctor probably helped her, especially in comparison to the Buccos who have been representing the district since 1994. It will really depend on how well the Morris Dems machinery works (which is basically brand new as of 2018), and whether after two more years of Trump disgust of the national GOP will overcome distrust of the state Dems for the district's many educated white suburbanites. Certainly also helps that Bhimani already has experience working the district.

[LoneStarDem]

I'm assuming NJ Governor Phil Murphy (D) isn't getting involved in the legislative contests ?

[Suburbia]

My preliminary ratings:

LD-1: Lean D
LD-2: Likely D
LD-3: Likely D
LD-8: Lean R
LD-21: Tilt R
LD-25: Likely R

All other districts: Safe [incumbent party]

Anecdotally I would say LD-21 is a toss up currently; compared to the GOP there is serious energy on the Democratic side, and the most politically active residents are wealthy social liberals who deeply hate Trump and the current Republican Party.

Is LD 21 the Romney Menendez District?

Voting history of LD-21:

2012 Pres: Romney +5.8
2012 Sen: Kyrillos +4.8
2013 Sen (special): Lonegan +5.2
2013 Gov: Christie +38.2
2014 Sen: Bell +5.5
2016 Pres: Clinton +9.5
2017 Gov: Murphy +2.0
2018 Sen: Menendez +0.8

I rated this Tilt R primarily due to the assuredly abysmal turnout this off-off-year election will have. I can also foresee a scenario in which Bramnick holds on but Munoz loses if the vote is particularly close.

There was a Kyrillos-Menendez ‘18 seat? LMAO. No wonder Kean is trying to get out of there

On a somewhat related note, it's interesting how so much of the NJ GOP leadership originates from well-off suburbs that are rapidly trending away from them in the age of Trump, while a good portion of the state Dem leadership originates from WWC areas that are trending less quickly away from the Dems. The way things are going, there's a real possibility, however small, that there could be a "double-Portillo" in 2021 in which Sweeney and Kean both lose their seats.

Sweeney and Kean will win reelection in 2021. Sweeney can be a template for WWC Democrats a la Manchin-S. Lynch.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm assuming NJ Governor Phil Murphy (D) isn't getting involved in the legislative contests ?

Not yet, anyway. It's a quiet election. Testament to how much Trump really has sucked the oxygen out of state and local politics (plus the death of local reporting).

[Suburbia]

I'm assuming NJ Governor Phil Murphy (D) isn't getting involved in the legislative contests ?

Not yet, anyway. It's a quiet election. Testament to how much Trump really has sucked the oxygen out of state and local politics (plus the death of local reporting).

This. Donald Trump has sucked the oxygen of world news since 2015. It shows to you that he is a good marketer and good messenger, he knows how to get people to pay attention TO HIM 24/7. Every Republican whether they like it or not is associated to him, some moderate Republicans try to run Independent of him.

Whoever the next Trump-type person is out there, they are younger and with social media on the rise, they will craft their brand like him and it will be worse.

Also, yes, local reporting is dead. NJ is an apathetic political state. Most people don't even know their legislators and complain when taxes are high.

NJ voters are the problem, they are hypocritical.

Expect 13% voter turnout.

[Dead Parrot]

Also, yes, local reporting is dead. NJ is an apathetic political state. Most people don't even know their legislators and complain when taxes are high.

NJ voters are the problem, they are hypocritical.

Expect 13% voter turnout.

I wonder how much of this has to do with NJ's unenviable position of being sandwiched between two much larger states/metro areas and the consequent lack of our own media market. The number of major outlets that would devote much coverage to the NJ Legislature is surely much lower than that of the NY and PA Legislatures. Having off-year elections probably also doesn't help*.

*Fun fact: off-year elections were written into the 1947 state constitution primarily to avoid having our gubernatorial race coincide with those of NY and PA, as it was assumed that the predominance of NYC and Philly media markets in NJ meant that we needed an election year all to ourselves or else we would get no coverage at all. Ironically, in the present day this move has probably been counterproductive with regard to generating voter interest due to the lack of "midterm" tension.

[Senator Incitatus]

It's well-known that New Jersey has the most ossified political environment as a result of the media situation and explicit factors favoring incumbents (like the map and two-chamber districts). Vin Gopal was something like the fifth person to unseat an incumbent Senator in the last three decades (with Beck being another).

[Senator Incitatus]

Tonight is primary night in New Jersey. There are only a few Assembly primaries that matter:

ASSEMBLY
District 6 (Camden)
This district is safely Democratic, but the incumbent Norcross machine (Greenwald and Lampitt) faces a challenge from the left by E. Julian Jordan III and Danie Moss-Velasco. Murphy has endorsed the incumbents, so don't read too much into the result tonight.

District 8 (Burlington)
Incumbent Republican Joe Howarth has been denied party support in Burlington. It was rumored that he might jump ship to the Democrats along with Senator Dawn Addiego, but he stayed put and is running as a "MAGA Republican." Seems a bit desperate if you ask me, but the party line historically matters less in Republican primaries, so he may hold on.

Four candidates are running for the two slots: incumbent Ryan Peters (who will probably clear the field), Howarth, party-endorsee and former Burlington Co. Sheriff Jean Stanfield, and attorney R. Jason Huf. Stanfield has a decent chance of beating Howarth.

The district hasn't actually elected a Democrat in many years, although Addiego is their current Senator and narrowly held on as a Republican in 2017. This primary should go a long way toward determining the next Assembly members.

District 25 (Morris)
Incumbent Michael Patrick Carroll is running for Morris County Surrogate instead of re-election. Anthony Bucco is widely expected to be re-nominated, but three candidates are running for Carroll's seat – attorney John Barbarula, Brian Bergen (Denville councilman), and Aura Kenny Dunn (a former Frelinghuysen aide). Haven't heard much about this one, but the district could flip in November, so the nominee will be significant.

There are some other county and municipal races I'm following and will post if the results are interesting.

[LoneStarDem]

Is the NJ State Senate up this year too ?

[Politician]

Is the NJ State Senate up this year too ?

No, but Van Drew's old State Senate seat is up in a special election. Appointed incumbent Bob Andrejaczk is facing a tough challenge in this WWC district, but I think he'll hold on.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Brian Bergen won the second spot in LD-25 - But imagine my shock when I clicked the Facebook link on his website at work and this came up: https://www.facebook.com/Bergen4Council/

[Dead Parrot]

State Senator Anthony Bucco has passed away: newjerseyglobe.com/in-memoriam/senator-anthony-bucco-dies-at-81/