Rate MI-Sen (Spring 2019)

[Orser67]

Rate Michigan's 2020 Senate election. The poll closes in June, so it will be a snapshot into what Atlas thought in Spring 2019.

Previous polls: AL, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS/KY, ME

Map so far (ME still outstanding):

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Lean D seems like the safest bet at this point. Peters still has the lowest name recognition of any Senator within their own state, so it's hard to tell exactly how popular he is, but he seems pretty unoffensive. Similar style to Stabenow, I think.

[Xing]

Lean D, though I could see someone like James moving this to Tilt D. Peters can't afford to rest easy, especially since Trump winning Michigan again is definitely not impossible, despite what some on this forum believe.

[S019]

Tossup/Tilt D


Democrat carries Peters over tge finish line

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tilt D as of now, Tilt R if James is the nominee, hoping he just runs for MI 11 and Haley takes one for the team to save a senate seat.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D seems most appropriate for now

[Politician]

Lean D seems most appropriate for now

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R, as I think James will run.

[😥]

Lean D seems most appropriate for now

[morgieb]

Lean D for now. Definitely one where Peters has to be on his feet though, if James runs he feels like Bill Nelson 2.0.

[Orser67]

Likely D, though far closer to Lean D than Safe D. If Trump's approval ratings were in the high 40s, I'd be pretty concerned about this seat. But with Trump's approval ratings mired in the low 40s, I think Democrats are favored to win here, and I think Peters has a good chance to run ahead of the Democratic presidential candidate by a couple of points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe

[Gustaf]

I don't really get why people are so concerned over Michigan. Ok, Trump won it by a sliver in 2016 and Peters isn't super known.

Still, he won an open seat in 2014, a pretty bad year for Democrats. And Michigan swung decisively towards Democrats in 2018. I don't Think he's safe but I'm not getting people thinking it's "tilt" or whatever.

[TWTown]

Lean D seems like the safest bet at this point. Peters still has the lowest name recognition of any Senator within their own state, so it's hard to tell exactly how popular he is, but he seems pretty unoffensive. Similar style to Stabenow, I think.

[Woody]

I don't really get why people are so concerned over Michigan. Ok, Trump won it by a sliver in 2016 and Peters isn't super known.

Still, he won an open seat in 2014, a pretty bad year for Democrats. And Michigan swung decisively towards Democrats in 2018. I don't Think he's safe but I'm not getting people thinking it's "tilt" or whatever.

He won in 2014 because the GOP nominee sucked. James is like Thanos compared to Terri Land.

[HarrisonL]

Let's dispel the notion that Gary Peters doesn't know what he's doing, he knows exactly what he's doing, he's undergoing a systematic effort to be the unknown senator, someone representing constituents who still think Carl Levin is one of their senators.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Lean D seems most appropriate for now

[Sestak]

Lean D.

[here2view]

Lean D. I could see Peters end up like Bill Nelson though if he runs a lackadaisical campaign against James, should he run.

[Tekken_Guy]

Voted safe but meant Lean. If Peters goes all Bill Nelson against James he could lose. Luckily for Peters, it’s a presidential year, Michigan is quite a bit bluer than Florida, and John James isn’t a highly popular state governor.

[jamestroll]

I don't really get why people are so concerned over Michigan. Ok, Trump won it by a sliver in 2016 and Peters isn't super known.

Still, he won an open seat in 2014, a pretty bad year for Democrats. And Michigan swung decisively towards Democrats in 2018. I don't Think he's safe but I'm not getting people thinking it's "tilt" or whatever.

Because Stabenow sleptwalked through her 2018 campaign and won by an underwhelming 6 point margin.

Long term demographics are poor for Democrats in Michigan and even with the 2018 results being promising there is an underlying Republican trend in the state. It will not go the way of Missouri or even Ohio though.

This is just the only Democratic held seat besides Alabama (lol) that the GOP has a chance to pick up so it has all this attention. But there is no Rick Scott equivalent in Florida who would be able to upset Peters. 

All the users placing this contest as Lean to Likely Republican may be in for a surprise next year. I am betting on a Peters victory of 5 to 7%.

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely D as of now.

To make the race interesting you need two things
1. Trump needs to win the state by a reasonable margin
2. R must find a credible candidate

As of neither are likely

Peters would win 53/45 if election day was today 

[Dr. MB]

Gary Peters is no stranger to controversy -- in 2010 when he was on the campaign trail and said a female politician should be stoned to death because she was menstruating.

Peters also said President Obama is not a Christian.

"It's clear that the president does not care about his religious convictions or belief systems," Peters said in 2010. "His religious beliefs are different than mine so I think he may have gone over one of the religious bases of what he is talking about on some sort of fundamental belief."

On Friday, Peters' office said he apologized to the woman who came forward with claims she was raped when she was a student at Penn State.

The senator also told reporters Tuesday his comments were taken out of context.

"They were referring to the question as to the alleged sexual violation that she faced -- not necessarily that I said it during a debate -- that I was talking about her," Peters said.

Peters has received a lot of criticism recently for saying that women who go through chemotherapy should not have abortions due to drug shortages

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Gary Peters is no stranger to controversy -- in 2010 when he was on the campaign trail and said a female politician should be stoned to death because she was menstruating.

Peters also said President Obama is not a Christian.

"It's clear that the president does not care about his religious convictions or belief systems," Peters said in 2010. "His religious beliefs are different than mine so I think he may have gone over one of the religious bases of what he is talking about on some sort of fundamental belief."

On Friday, Peters' office said he apologized to the woman who came forward with claims she was raped when she was a student at Penn State.

The senator also told reporters Tuesday his comments were taken out of context.

"They were referring to the question as to the alleged sexual violation that she faced -- not necessarily that I said it during a debate -- that I was talking about her," Peters said.

Peters has received a lot of criticism recently for saying that women who go through chemotherapy should not have abortions due to drug shortages

Don't forget about when Gary Peters committed armed robbery of a bank for $100,000 and then redistributed it to a local Mexican-American orphanage.