TX-Emerson: Trump -1 to +8

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: Emerson, April 25-28, 799 RC

Trump approval 46/44

Biden 50, Trump 49
O'Rourke 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Sanders 49
Trump 53, Warren 47
Truamp 54, Harris 46
Trump 54, Buttigieg 46

[Sir Mohamed]

It's Emerson and early into the cycle, but a terrible poll for Trump and surprisingly good for Sanders (and Biden of course). Not so great for Harris, however.

Dems should really keep an eye on TX and give the GOP at least a fight. 38 EVs are worth some investment. The bigger Trump loses, the better. And if TX is at least somewhat close while CA is titanium D, it destroys any narrative Trump can win the PV.

[S019]

Memerson

[Xing]

Early polls in Texas showing Trump struggling are the gospel truth and prove that it's Tilt R at best. Early polls in Wisconsin showing Trump getting obliterated obviously can't be trusted, and it's still Lean R.

How about we consistently agree that early polls tell us next to nothing.

[Boobs]

Ok, typically warnings about early polls, Emerson, etc. But keep in mind this is the second poll showing TX to be very competitive with Biden or Beto. The days of a safe R Texas are over.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Likely R with Biden, safe R with anyone else

[lfromnj]

FYI overeducated poll but unlike in the Midwest this doesn't necessarily mean its D friendly as there isn't really a difference in education and how people vote in Texas.

[OSR stands with Israel]

OSR told me Trump WILL win TX by 7%

National Polls also show Trump losing by 6-7 points or even more while I believe it will be a 2-3 point loss by 2020. If he does lose by 6-7 points nationally Texas will be this close in the end .

[President Johnson]

Just let me believe this for a moment.

I know, it's still Emerson, but it's remarkable still, especially that Biden beats him (within the margin of error). I'm surprised, though, that Bernard is only down two points. I'd rate Texas as lean Republican and how predict a Trump win anywhere between three and six points. But if the Democratic nominee can get within three points or less, Trump is having a bad night.

[😥]

Tossup to Lean R with Biden, Likely/Safe R with others

[Politician]

Early polls have Biden leading Trump in Iowa and Ohio.

I wonder why Atlas thinks those polls are meaningless but places so much wait on this one?

[RI]

Lol 60% with a degree is twice reality

[Frenchrepublican]

It's difficult to see why so many people would vote for Biden in a Biden/Trump matchup but would switch to Trump in a Trump/Harris matchup.

[IceSpear]

Pepperidge Farm remembers the Atlas hot take that "Hillary hit the Democratic ceiling in TX." lol

This is essentially identical to the Quinnipiac poll from a few months back. It doesn't matter all that much because it's so early, but it seems TX really would be a toss up if a Biden/O'Rourke vs. Trump election were held there today, which is astonishing in and of itself.

Oh, also clearly Elliott County, KY is more likely to flip than Tarrant County, TX.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's difficult to see why so many people would vote for Biden in a Biden/Trump matchup but would switch to Trump in a Trump/Harris matchup.

Cause Biden is way way better than Harris

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Tilt/Lean R, more likely to flip than Iowa and Ohio.

[Thunder98]

Not surprising tbh, I have rated Texas as Tilt R for a while now.

[Beet]

Given that it's Emerson which eliminates undecideds, and people who haven't heard of a candidate are more likely to be undecided, I'm going to go ahead and say the numbers for Warren, Harris and Buttigieg are affected by their lower name ID, and that if they had the same name ID as Sanders they would be pulling the same numbers.

Anyway, this confirms what I've been saying for a while, which is that the Dems (especially Beto) can win Texas. However, it won't be some far left AOC acolyte promising to kill all oil & gas jobs after they take away your AR-15, I can tell you that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's still likely R under any circumstance.

[Frenchrepublican]

It's difficult to see why so many people would vote for Biden in a Biden/Trump matchup but would switch to Trump in a Trump/Harris matchup.

Cause Biden is way way better than Harris

Yeah, but Texas is a polarised place. There are a few voters who are ready to vote for Biden even if they would vote Trump in a Trump/Harris matchup, but they are not numerous. Anyway I now understand why Biden is leading in this poll : 60% of the sample is composed of college educated voters

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's difficult to see why so many people would vote for Biden in a Biden/Trump matchup but would switch to Trump in a Trump/Harris matchup.

Cause Biden is way way better than Harris

Yeah, but Texas is a polarised place. There are a few voters who are ready to vote for Biden even if they would vote Trump in a Trump/Harris matchup, but they are not numerous. Anyway I now understand why Biden is leading in this poll : 60% of the sample is composed of college educated voters

Cause there are many never Trump Republicans in Texas and Biden is someone they are willing to vote for while Harris isn’t