NH-Suffolk: Biden 20, Sanders 12, Buttigieg 12

[Skye]

Biden 20
Sanders 12
Buttigieg 12
Warren 8
Harris 6
O'Rourke 3
Booker 3
Yang 1
Klobuchar 1
Gabbard 1

GOP:

Trump 72
Weld 17


https://www2.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/04/29/biden-followed-sanders-and-buttigieg-lead-among-democrats-survey/Gs0gireOuJxvw5SfTTy5wM/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe%3Asocialflow%3Atwitter

[BlueSwan]

Bernie tied with Mayor Pete for second place in neighbouring New Hampshire. Not the poll he was hoping for!

[Brittain33]

88% of NH Dems won’t vote for Sanders!

[Eraserhead]

Junk poll!

This Biden bounce is going to produce some temporary ugliness though.

[Sirius_]

Junk poll!

This Biden bounce is going to produce some temporary ugliness though.

How is it a junk poll when there have been several Biden leads in NH? Because you don't like it?

[Eraserhead]

Junk poll!

This Biden bounce is going to produce some temporary ugliness though.

How is it a junk poll when there have been several Biden leads in NH? Because you don't like it?

Several? A Saint Anselm College poll with decimal points doesn't qualify as "several".

And yes, it's most certainly junk because I don't like it!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren needs to drop out, only one socialist should run

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Biden beats Sanders here, he's the nominee. It's almost that simple.

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

These Sanders numbers are awful - what's happening?

[Yank2133]

These Sanders numbers are awful - what's happening?

Deep field.

[Tintrlvr]

These Sanders numbers are awful - what's happening?

The people who were saying Sanders before because they slightly preferred him to Biden and had no idea who any of the other candidates were are switching to Biden because he just announced and is getting press. The reassurance for Sanders is that this is almost certainly a temporary state of affairs because those people are paying near-zero attention to the primary at present (and won't tune in seriously until the debates at the earliest but probably more like December-January or so). The bad news for Sanders is that they are at least as likely to switch to one of the 5-8 other significant or potentially significant non-Biden, non-Sanders candidates as they are to switch to him.

The basic fact here is that Sanders has a loyal core of around 10-15% of the primary voters and everything else is ephemeral. Biden probably has an even smaller loyal core (surely no more than 10%) but is attracting by far the largest share of floating voters currently (the rest of his support), which is wobbly but not especially more likely to go to Sanders than to the others.

[MT Treasurer]

Thank God I’m not a Sanders supporter emotionally invested in the outcome of this primary because today has really been a BTFO for Sanders and his supporters. This is going to be a wipeout at this rate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The basic fact here is that Sanders has a loyal core of around 10-15% of the primary voters and everything else is ephemeral. Biden probably has an even smaller loyal core (surely no more than 10%) but is attracting by far the largest share of floating voters currently (the rest of his support), which is wobbly but not especially more likely to go to Sanders than to the others.

Morning Consult says Bernie is the second choice of 33% of Biden supporters.

[Tintrlvr]

The basic fact here is that Sanders has a loyal core of around 10-15% of the primary voters and everything else is ephemeral. Biden probably has an even smaller loyal core (surely no more than 10%) but is attracting by far the largest share of floating voters currently (the rest of his support), which is wobbly but not especially more likely to go to Sanders than to the others.

Morning Consult says Bernie is the second choice of 33% of Biden supporters.

Those are the 33% of voters who literally don't know who any of the other candidates are. Second-choice polling is even more laughably irrelevant than first-choice polling at this stage.

Delusion, convince yourself.

[Eraserhead]

Thank God I’m not a Sanders supporter emotionally invested in the outcome of this primary because today has really been a BTFO for Sanders and his supporters. This is going to be a wipeout at this rate.

There's no voting until next year. Biden flaming out before then is very possible.

[MT Treasurer]

Thank God I’m not a Sanders supporter emotionally invested in the outcome of this primary because today has really been a BTFO for Sanders and his supporters. This is going to be a wipeout at this rate.

There's no voting until next year. Biden flaming out before then is very possible.

I don’t doubt that Biden is getting a temporary announcement bump or that he won’t easily win NH over Sanders, but I’d be careful in assuming that Biden’s a weaker candidate than Hillary Clinton who’s clearly going to collapse Jeb Bush style. The dynamics and electorate of the Democratic primaries are entirely different from the Republican side, and since Sanders and Biden clearly both have a lot of name recognition, the fact that Sanders is in an even weaker position now than he was during the NH primary in 2016 is very telling. He definitely faces an uphill battle in 2020, arguably even if Biden does flame out.

[Tintrlvr]

Thank God I’m not a Sanders supporter emotionally invested in the outcome of this primary because today has really been a BTFO for Sanders and his supporters. This is going to be a wipeout at this rate.

There's no voting until next year. Biden flaming out before then is very possible.

I don’t doubt that Biden is getting a temporary announcement bump or that he won’t easily win NH over Sanders, but I’d be careful in assuming that Biden’s a weaker candidate than Hillary Clinton who’s clearly going to collapse Jeb Bush style. The dynamics and electorate of the Democratic primaries are entirely different from the Republican side, and since Sanders and Biden clearly both have a lot of name recognition, the fact that Sanders is in an even weaker position now than he was during the NH primary in 2016 is very telling. He definitely faces an uphill battle in 2020, arguably even if Biden does flame out.

Biden flaming out and Sanders being a weak candidate for the nomination are not mutually exclusive, of course.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mayor Pete's surge continues, glorious news

[S019]

Lol Sanders

[ProudModerate2]

If Biden beats Sanders here, he's the nominee. It's almost that simple.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I guess it comes down to how much of Sanders 2016 vote was a vote for a more independent candidate/progressive policies and how much was simply anti-Hillary.

[RINO Tom]

Thank God I’m not a Sanders supporter emotionally invested in the outcome of this primary because today has really been a BTFO for Sanders and his supporters. This is going to be a wipeout at this rate.

There's no voting until next year. Biden flaming out before then is very possible.

I don’t doubt that Biden is getting a temporary announcement bump or that he won’t easily win NH over Sanders, but I’d be careful in assuming that Biden’s a weaker candidate than Hillary Clinton who’s clearly going to collapse Jeb Bush style. The dynamics and electorate of the Democratic primaries are entirely different from the Republican side, and since Sanders and Biden clearly both have a lot of name recognition, the fact that Sanders is in an even weaker position now than he was during the NH primary in 2016 is very telling. He definitely faces an uphill battle in 2020, arguably even if Biden does flame out.

I'd be curious to hear your expanded and specific thoughts on the bolded claim.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Don't worry everybody there is still the debate in June and everybody knows that Biden is a horrible debater and Miami is unfavorable territory for him so it will likely be a tough crowd.

[History505]

Don't worry everybody there is still the debate in June and everybody knows that Biden is a horrible debater and Miami is unfavorable territory for him so it will likely be a tough crowd.

Horrible debater? LOL.

[RINO Tom]

Thank God I’m not a Sanders supporter emotionally invested in the outcome of this primary because today has really been a BTFO for Sanders and his supporters. This is going to be a wipeout at this rate.

There's no voting until next year. Biden flaming out before then is very possible.

I don’t doubt that Biden is getting a temporary announcement bump or that he won’t easily win NH over Sanders, but I’d be careful in assuming that Biden’s a weaker candidate than Hillary Clinton who’s clearly going to collapse Jeb Bush style. The dynamics and electorate of the Democratic primaries are entirely different from the Republican side, and since Sanders and Biden clearly both have a lot of name recognition, the fact that Sanders is in an even weaker position now than he was during the NH primary in 2016 is very telling. He definitely faces an uphill battle in 2020, arguably even if Biden does flame out.

I'd be curious to hear your expanded and specific thoughts on the bolded claim.

I can think of lots of plausible contrasts between the party electorates, but none seem necessary to explain the difference here.

Jeb Bush's campaign was an organizational juggernaut, and unbeatable in fundraising, but he always polled poorly relative to his name recognition. Biden, on the other hand, is extremely popular among Democrats and led the field by a wide margin even as the media reported that he was an ambivalent candidate.

The sense that I have had of Biden over the past year is that (1) he's not even a real favorite among most leading party actors, many of whom would be happier with someone like Harris or O'Rourke, and (2) the appetite for his candidacy is strongest among rank-and-file voters, particularly non-activists, who above all else crave a return to the stability of Obama's presidency.

Comparisons with Clinton or Bush have always been ill-founded in Biden's case. I don't think there is great parallel in recent primary history.

The last example of a respected party elder entering an extremely crowded primary as a frontrunner was... Bob Dole. Extending that equivalence also gives us an amusing image of Bernie Sanders as a Democratic Buchanan, which sort of works!

I more read his comment to mean there is a fundamental difference between the way a Republican primary voter thinks vs. a Democratic one.  If that were true (not sure either way), I would like to hear his specific examples of some differences, in his opinion.