UK local elections, 2 May 2019

[YL]

There are local elections in Northern Ireland and in much of England tomorrow.  "Much of England" here means most districts in two tier areas [1], most Metropolitan Districts [2] and most unitaries [3] but does not include London.  Some of these will have all up elections and some will have a third of seats up for election.

Low turnouts seem to be anticipated although I don't know whether that will be borne out.  Note that the abomination known as "The Brexit Party" has no candidates and that "Change UK - The Independent Group" also has no official candidates, although an Independent candidate in Sheffield is clearly aligned with them (i.e. he's married to one of their MPs) and is one of their European election candidates.

Andrew Teale has written his usual excellent preview.

[1] Excluding the handful of districts like Oxford which elect by halves (these go in even years), the odd other one on an anomalous cycle, and those in Northamptonshire and Buckinghamshire which are expected to be abolished soon.

[2] Not Birmingham, Rotherham or Doncaster

[3] Not Bristol, and not those which used to be county councils and remain on the county council election cycle.  It does include two new unitaries which replace the former structure of local government in Dorset, one called simply Dorset and one called Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole.

[jaichind]

It seems both CON and LAB are deeply divided.  Wonder how this will work out tomorrow.

[EastAnglianLefty]

As a general rule, all national press coverage of local elections should be presumed to be wrong until the results are declared. Do not assume somebody has local knowledge without positive evidence thereof, because most of the comment is broad stereotype with only the loosest connection to electoral realities.

[TWTown]

As a general rule, all national press coverage of local elections should be presumed to be wrong until the results are declared. Do not assume somebody has local knowledge without positive evidence thereof, because most of the comment is broad stereotype with only the loosest connection to electoral realities.

Thank you, I would have relied on random hearsay if I didn't know this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Thank you, I would have relied on random hearsay if I didn't know this.

A quick scan of local election threads past here would suggest that rather a lot of people do.

[tomhguy]

So.... We are 2 hours away from poll closings... final predictions?
Mine are:
Con -371
Lab +342
LD +144
UKIP -132
GRN +17

[jaichind]

So.... We are 2 hours away from poll closings... final predictions?
Mine are:
Con -371
Lab +342
LD +144
UKIP -132
GRN +17

Since the Brexit party is not running would not a lot of Brexit party supporters vote UKIP instead and save them from a meltdown ?

[Oryxslayer]

So.... We are 2 hours away from poll closings... final predictions?
Mine are:
Con -371
Lab +342
LD +144
UKIP -132
GRN +17

I know absolutely nothing about the locals, but I know enough that this is a hot take and a half, especially considering what happened last time labour was supposed to surge.

[tomhguy]

Yea... it is a hot take. Many "experts" believe that the CONs will lose ~600, but I think that Brexit Party voters will be split between the tories, ukippers and not voting at all. Turnout will be lower than normal due to disenfranchised voters. Currently the figures of the seats up today are:
Con ~5500
Lab~2300
LD ~658
UKIP ~180
Green ~90

However, we should remember that the last time that most of these councillors stood up for election was in 2016, at the height of UKIP's power (just before the referendum). As seen in the previous year when the UKIP support fell from 126 councillors to just 3, I believe that we will see them have somewhere in the middle. However, I don't think that there will be anything too dramatic, the tories will do slightly better than pundicts predicted (I admit this as a liberal), yet Labour will still make some gains.

[parochial boy]

Ah, local elections in England. Possibly the worst electoral system that anybody has come up with in the history of the world

[Tintrlvr]

Ah, local elections in England. Possibly the worst electoral system that anybody has come up with in the history of the world

Certainly one of the most chaotic!

Will there be any results declared tonight, or is everyone reporting tomorrow?

[YL]

Because of where I live, I like to talk about the Yorkshire Mets.  Only a couple are really that interesting in terms of control, but here goes.  In all of these a third of councillors, one in each ward, are up for election, and except in Leeds and Sheffield these are the councillors who were elected in 2015.  Rotherham and Doncaster have abandoned the thirds system and don't have elections this year.

Barnsley

Currently Lab 56, Con 4, Barnsley Independent Group 2, Lib Dem 1.  Obviously this is safe Labour (in the sense that it is literally impossible for them to lose control).  The Conservatives are defending the two Penistone wards and Labour everywhere else.  The Lib Dems managed to win a seat in Penistone West last year and are looking to make some more gains in the west of the borough.

Bradford

Currently Lab 51, Con 21, Lib Dem 9, Green 2, Independents 7.  Bradford politics actually seems to be settling down a bit, which probably means it is about to do something weird again.  Labour should be fairly comfortable this year.  As with many of the other boroughs, Bradford borough contains rather more than just Bradford, also containing Keighley and (rather ridiculously) Ilkley and Burley in Wharfedale the other side of Ilkley Moor.  One ward I would watch is Bingley, which had been safish Tory for years but Labour got quite close last year, and now the sitting Tory councillor left the party and is defending his seat as a "no description" candidate.

Calderdale

Currently Lab 24, Con 20, Lib Dem 6, Independent 1.  This borough contains the large town of Halifax, various smaller towns like Elland and Brighouse which are swing territory most of the time, and the Labour-leaning Upper Calder Valley around the liberal town of Hebden Bridge and its neighbouring settlements of Todmorden and Mytholmroyd.  Labour need two net gains for control, and they should get them; the Tories did well in 2015 and are defending in pretty much every marginal ward in the borough.  Luddendenfoot (the ward containing Mytholmroyd) and Sowerby Bridge were particularly comfortable Labour wins last year so look like the two most plausible Labour gains.

Kirklees

Currently Lab 38, Con 18, Lib Dem 8, Green 3, Independent 2.  This borough contains the "Heavy Woollen District" around Batley and Dewsbury, the large town of Huddersfield which is just about to lose its representation in the Premier League, and a rather picturesque chunk of the Yorkshire Pennines including the towns of Holmfirth ("Last of the Summer Wine") and Marsden.  Labour took control last year and while they have a couple of tricky defences, including one in Holme Valley North which they only won because the sitting Independent councillor defected to them, should hold on; there are also a couple of tricky Tory defences in Colne Valley and Denby Dale, wards where Labour hold the other two seats.

Leeds

Currently Lab 61, Con 22, Lib Dem 6, Green 2, a couple of Local Parties for Local People 8.  Leeds had new boundaries last year so the seats up for election are those of the candidates who came third then.  Labour are fairly comfortably in control but have a few tricky defences in wards where other parties also won seats last year so may well lose a few seats.  Note that the Leeds council area includes some places which most people wouldn't really regard as part of Leeds, and these provide most of the Tory councillors.

Sheffield

Currently Lab 52, Lib Dem 22, Green 6, UKIP 3, Independent (ChUK-TIG-aligned) 1.  Sheffield had new boundaries in 2016; these wards are those won by the candidates who came second that year.  Although the Council is not terribly popular, largely for reasons to do with trees, Labour aren't in danger of losing control this year, and while they may well lose the odd seat to the Greens or Lib Dems, they will hope to gain Stocksbridge & Upper Don from UKIP and regain the East Ecclesfield seat held by defector Steve Wilson.

Wakefield

Currently Lab 52, Con 11.  This is another council Labour can't actually lose control of this year.  They're defending 17 seats, one of which is in a ward (Wrenthorpe & Outwood West) the Tories won narrowly last year.

[YL]

Ah, local elections in England. Possibly the worst electoral system that anybody has come up with in the history of the world

Certainly one of the most chaotic!

Will there be any results declared tonight, or is everyone reporting tomorrow?

Estimated declaration times (UK time of course)

[mileslunn]

Ah, local elections in England. Possibly the worst electoral system that anybody has come up with in the history of the world

Certainly one of the most chaotic!

Will there be any results declared tonight, or is everyone reporting tomorrow?

Estimated declaration times (UK time of course)

Do they do exit polls like in the general election?

[rc18]

Ah, local elections in England. Possibly the worst electoral system that anybody has come up with in the history of the world

Certainly one of the most chaotic!

Will there be any results declared tonight, or is everyone reporting tomorrow?

Estimated declaration times (UK time of course)

Do they do exit polls like in the general election?

No

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Early indications show good results for minor and fringe parties and low turnouts. How surprising. Early indications also show pretty lousy numbers for Labour in Sunderland, which may not be indicative (the administration there is widely loathed, if also, paradoxically, bomb-proof) but will probably be treated as such because most places don't count so fast.

[Oryxslayer]

Early indications show good results for minor and fringe parties and low turnouts. How surprising. Early indications also show pretty lousy numbers for Labour in Sunderland, which may not be indicative (the administration there is widely loathed, if also, paradoxically, bomb-proof) but will probably be treated as such because most places don't count so fast.

It is a little weird that UKIP gained a seat up here, when they should be moving backwards if I am reading polls right. But then again, from the 2 British elections and 1 referendum I have watched previously, Sunderland and the northeast loves to do their own thing.

[jaichind]

Results so far does not look so good for LAB.  Perhaps all that talk of a CON wipeout triggered greater CON turnout and greater tactical voting by Brexit supporters for CON.  Of course it is very early.

[vileplume]

Results so far does not look so good for LAB.  Perhaps all that talk of a CON wipeout triggered greater CON turnout and greater tactical voting by Brexit supporters for CON.  Of course it is very early.

Their main saving grace is the lack of UKIP/Brexit Party candidaes in most contests. Thus many Leave supporters, furious with the government over the failure to deliver Brexit, will have been 'forced' to vote for them as the most Brexitty Party on the ballot.

[jaichind]

So far most of the results are from the North.  I suspect when Southern results comes in the CONs will get killed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I mean it's probably important not to forget that Labour is very unpopular at the moment as well. Both main parties are, and their leaders especially. And this has a big effect on how motivated supporters are to bother with local elections. Meanwhile if you're generally cranky, you have extra incentive to vote this year. Guess a lot of absolute jokers will wake up tomorrow with 'Cllr' in front of their name...

[vileplume]

So far most of the results are from the North.  I suspect when Southern results comes in the CONs will get killed.

Possibly in the strongly Remain areas. But remember the south (minus London which isn't voting) also voted Leave, some parts e.g Essex and Kent strongly so.

Remember also the Tory bloodbath that was predicted to happen in London last year didn't happen.

[jaichind]

Independents gained a lot.  I wonder how many of them are UKIP splinter parties or ex-UKIP members running to avoid the UKIP label but still de facto UKIP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Independents gained a lot.  I wonder how many of them are UKIP splinter parties or ex-UKIP members running to avoid the UKIP label but still de facto UKIP.

Hardly any; they're mostly just people running on 'clean up the dog sh!t' and 'this town is IGNORED by the council' tickets. But, basically, smaller parties and independents are doing well everywhere because the big two are hated right now.

[jaichind]