Preserve the New Hampshire Advantage

[DKrol]

Preserve the New Hampshire Advantage
- A DKrol TL -

Governor John Lynch: I will keep working hard every day for the next 16 months to serve the people of our state; but I will not run for re-election as Governor of New Hampshire. For me, being Governor of the State of New Hampshire is the best job in the world. Serving in this role is the highest privilege of my life. I remain humbled and honored by the trust the people of this great state have placed in me. I thank all the citizens of our state from the bottom of my heart.

[Cold War Liberal]

- A DKrol TL -

Yas yas yaaaaas

[DKrol]

Part I: 2012 Takes Shape



Josh McElveen: With Governor Lynch announcing he won't be seeking a fifth term in the Corner Office in 2012 earlier this week, attention now turns towards what will surely be a wide race to try and replace him. Lynch, who has a 77% approval rating according a recent WMUR poll, has pledged to remain impartial and not take a side in the Democratic primary that his absense at the top of the ballot will surely cause.

For the Democrats, leading candidats would be:

[image removed]
Former Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan


Former Senator Martha Fuller Clark


Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter


Former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand

And on the Republican side:


Senator Jeb Bradley


Former U.S. Senate Candidate Ovide Lamontagne


Senate President Peter Bragdon

McElveen: The race for the Corner Office will not be the only race on Granite Staters ballots in 2012. All 24 State Senate Seats are up for grabs, as are all 400 seats in the State House and both Congressional Seats.



In the race for Congress, a familiar matchup might make its way on to the ballot. Congressman Frank Guinta has indicated he will run for a second term, representating the state's First Congressional District in Washington. Guinta unseated two-term incumbent Carol Shea-Porter in 2010. Sources have told me that Shea-Porter, if she passes up a run for the Governor's Office, will likely challenge Guinta again.



In the Second Congressional District, incumbent Republican Charlie Bass has also announced he will be running for a second consecutive term, having served six terms in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Bass will likely face a strong Democratic challenge from his 2010 opponent Ann Kuster or former Representative Paul Hodes. Polls have shown Bass in a weak position against either Democrat.



In the State Senate battle, the top of the ticket may be the deciding factor. While that didn't help Democrats in 2010 when Governor Lynch was swept into a fourth term with a massive margin despite Republicans making huge gains in the Senate and House, having an open battle at the top could shake things up. The impact of the new legislative district maps, drawn by the Republican majorities in both chambers, will also be a factor. Democratic Senate Leader Slyvia Larsen believes that it will take a lot of effort in order for Democrats to overcome the "large institutional burden that Republicans have erected" but that "Democrats can roll up their sleeves and get the job done".

[DKrol]

Part II: 2012 New Hampshire Primary

Battlelines Drawn in Granite State
Kevin Landrigan

The First In the Nation New Hampshire Primary is next Tuesday, but the battlelines have already been drawn. The State's Republicans have split their support across the field, with several influential officeholders endorsing both Governor Mitt Romney and his closest opponent, Senator Rick Santorum.

Romney's biggest surrogate on the campaign trail is former Governor John H. Sununu, who endorsed the Massachusetts Governor days after Romney announced his campaign in Stratham. Also endorsing Romeny are Senate Majority Leader Jeb Bradley, State Senator Russell Prescott, Congressman Frank Guinta, and former Senator Judd Gregg.

Backing Santorum are former Congressional Candidate Bob Giuda, State Senator Jim Luther, and former Senator Bob Smith. After his surprise victory in the Iowa Caucus, State Senator Sharon Carson and former Governor Craig Benson both endorsed the conservative from the Keystone State, showing a surge in ensuthiasm.

A surprise that was announced earlier today is that Senator Kelly Ayotte has endorsed former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, according to a statement released by his campaign. Ayotte praised Huntsman's positivity, his "committment to protecting Israel", his foreign policy credentials. Perhaps the state's junior senator will swing some votes for the Utahn, despite polls putting him in a distant fourth, behind Romney, Santorum, and Ron Paul.

2012 First In the Nation Presidential Primary
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney - 37%
Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum - 20%
Fmr. Gov. Jon Hunstman - 20%
Rep. Ron Paul - 16%
Fmr. Spkr. New Gingrich - 3%
Gov. Rick Perry - 1%
Other - 3%

[DKrol]

Part III: 2012 State Primaries



Maggie Hassan: That's why I will be running for Governor this year. I want to continue the work that Governor Lynch started during these last eight years.



Ted Gatsas: We need a Governor who will stand up to the federal government. We need a Governor who understands how to balance a budget. We need a Governor who has executive management experience. Today, I am announcing that I will be running for Governor of New Hampshire in 2012.



Carol Shea-Porter: I am running for Governor. Governor Lynch was a great ally over the last eight years, but there is still work to do. I will work to ensure that all children in New Hampshire, whether they are students in Pelham or Pittburg, receive the highest quality education possible.



Ovide Lamontange: I had my chance to be Governor, in 1996. I won't be running for Governor again. That time has passed. My service to the Granite State, however, is not over. I am very happy to announce that I will be running for Congress. Frank Guinta is not the Committed Conservative that we need fighting for us in Washington.



Paul Steinhauser: With Carol Shea-Porter running for Governor, the Democratic race for the First Congressional District is wide open. Former State Senator Martha Fuller Clark, who ran for the seat in 2002, is strongly considering jumping in. NH1 has also learned that both former Executive Councillor Bev Hollingworth and Manchester Alderman Joyce Craig are eyeing potential runs.

In the second district, it appears that a rematch is in order. Both incumbent Congressman Charlie Bass and his 2010 opponent, Annie Kuster, have declared their bids for the seat. Neither is expected to face a serious primary challenge. Former Congressman Paul Hodes has announced he will be running for the Executive Council to represent that Second District.

WMUR/Saint Anselm College Polling, May 2012
Includes speculated and declared candidates

Governor, Democratic Primary
Fmr. Sen. Maggie Hassan - 29%
Fmr. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter - 20%
Fmr. Mayor Steve Marchand - 11%
Other/Undecided - 40%

Governor, Republican Primary
Mayor Ted Gatsas - 27%
Sen. Jeb Bradley - 27%
Executive Councilor Chris Sununu - 19%
House Speaker Bill O'Brien - 17%
Police Officer Eddie Edwards - 3%
Other/Undecided - 7%

First Congressional District, Democratic Primary
Fmr. Sen. Martha Fuller Clark - 47%
Fmr. Executive Councilor Bev Hollingworth - 22%
Alderman Joyce Craig - 12%
Other/Undecided - 19%

First Congressional District, Republican Primary
Rep. Frank Guinta - 51%
Businessman Ovide Lamontagne - 40%
Other/Undecided - 9%

Second Congressional District, General Election
Lobbyist Annie Kuster, D - 47%
Rep. Charlie Bass, R - 44%
Other/Undecided - 8%

[DKrol]

Part IV: Summer Slog



Chris Galdieri: What we're seeing over this primary cycle is a real battle for the heart and soul of the political parties in New Hampshire. For the Republicans, the fight between Ovide Lamontagne and Congressman Guinta is really telling - Lamontagne, a businessman from the 1990s, is trying to take the GOP further right than it traditionally has been in New Hampshire, against Frank Guinta, who is not a moderate. That's a little less clear in the Governor's primary, where the top three candidates are moderates - Gatsas, Bradley, and Sununu. But Bill O'Brien, a severely conservative state legislator, is polling a respectable fourth place.

For the Democrats, it's more a discussion over the future image of the party. By-and-large, all of the candidates running on the Democratic side are left-leaning moderates. None of the candidates and out-and-out, unabashed progressives, although Carol Shea-Porter likes to call herself one. What's important about the Democratic primaries this year is that all of the leading candidates are women, in both Congressional seats and the Gubernatorial race. The Democratic Party in New Hampshire is setting itself up to be the image of diversity and inclusivity going forward, against a Republican Party dominated by older white men.



Mitt Romney: Mr. Chairman, and delegates, I accept your nomination for President of the United States.



Jon Hunstman: Mr. Chairman, I am honored to accept your nomination for Vice President of the United States.

WMUR/Saint Anselm College Polling, September 1, 2012

Governor, Democratic Primary
Fmr. Sen. Maggie Hassan - 35%
Fmr. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter - 35%
Fmr. Mayor Steve Marchand - 15%
Other/Undecided - 15%

Governor, Republican Primary
Mayor Ted Gatsas - 40%
House Speaker Bill O'Brien - 32%
Sen. Jeb Bradley - 20%
Police Officer Eddie Edwards - 4%
Other/Undecided - 4%

First Congressional District, Democratic Primary
Fmr. Sen. Martha Fuller Clark - 57%
Alderman Joyce Craig - 33%
Other/Undecided - 10%

First Congressional District, Republican Primary
Businessman Ovide Lamontagne - 52%
Rep. Frank Guinta - 46%
Other/Undecided - 2%

Second Congressional District, General Election
Lobbyist Annie Kuster, D - 45%
Rep. Charlie Bass, R - 45%
Other/Undecided - 10%

Presidential Election, In New Hampshire
Pres. Barack Obama/Vice Pres. Joe Biden, D - 49%
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney/Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman, R - 47%
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson/Judge Jim Gray, L. - 2%
Other/Undecided - 2%

[DKrol]

What do people think of this TL so far? In case people haven't caught on, it has a micro-focus on New Hampshire, its own politics, and the Granite State's role in national politics.

[NyIndy]

What do people think of this TL so far? In case people haven't caught on, it has a micro-focus on New Hampshire, its own politics, and the Granite State's role in national politics.

I think it's great, I've always found NH politics so interesting

[DKrol]

Part V: 2012 State Primaries...Over?

2012 Primary Election Results - WMUR, September 11, 2012

Governor, Democratic Primary - CALLED
Fmr. Sen. Maggie Hassan - 47%
Fmr. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter - 40%
Fmr. Mayor Steve Marchand - 13%

Governor, Republican Primary - UNABLE TO CALL
Mayor Ted Gatsas - 35%
House Speaker Bill O'Brien - 35%
Sen. Jeb Bradley - 23%
Police Officer Eddie Edwards - 7%

First Congressional District, Democratic Primary - CALLED
Fmr. Sen. Martha Fuller Clark - 61%
Alderman Joyce Craig - 39%

First Congressional District, Republican Primary - UNABLE TO CALL
Businessman Ovide Lamontagne - 50%
Rep. Frank Guinta - 50%

Second Congressional District, Democratic Primary - CALLED
Lobbyist Annie Kuster - 100%

Second Congressional District, Republican Primary - CALLED
Rep. Charlie Bass, R - 100%



Josh McElveen: It is amazing that as of 12:01 AM on Wednesday, September 12, we cannot call either of the contested Republican primaries. Queen City Mayor and former Senate President Ted Gatsas is clinging to a 7 vote lead over conservative House Speaker Bill O'Brien. Meanwhile, incumbent Congressman Frank Guinta, another former Manchester Mayor, is loosing his primary to Manchester businessman Ovide Lamontagne by a total of 25 votes. Recounts are already underway in several communities across the Granite State, including Bedford, where Lamontagne has a 2 vote lead, and Portsmouth, which Gatsas appears to have won by 50.



Ted Gatsas: I believe that I won the primary. Plain and simple. A lengthy recount or contested battle will only give Maggie Hassan more time to prepare and build up a larger Out-of-State Warchest to push the Democrat's hard-left agenda on our state.



Frank Guinta: Look, we need to count every vote. I know Ovide is out there getting ready to put up his general election posters and ads and whatever, but we don't know who won this race. It's clear to me and my team that there may have been some votes not counted, or not counted properly, in several places in the District. Bedford, Manchester Ward 1, and Laconia are a few of them. Everyone deserves to have their voice heard.



Ray Buckley: The State of the Republican Primary is reflective of the state of their party as a whole. They are weak, they are fractured, and they cannot win. Plain and simple. We will have a Democratic President, a Democratic Governor, five Democratic Executive Councilors, two Democratic Congresswoman, and Democratic majorities in both chambers of the General Court.

[DKrol]

Part VI: 2012 (Finally) Settled

2012 Primary Election Results - WMUR, September 16, 2012

Governor, Republican Primary - CALLED
Mayor Ted Gatsas - 38,944
House Speaker Bill O'Brien - 38,937
Sen. Jeb Bradley - 25,592
Police Officer Eddie Edwards - 7,788

First Congressional District, Republican Primary - CALLED
Rep. Frank Guinta - 28,405
Businessman Ovide Lamontagne - 28,401

WMUR/Saint Anselm College Polling, September 20, 2012

Governor
Fmr. Sen. Maggie Hassan, D - 48%
Mayor Ted Gatsas, R - 45%
Other/Undecided - 7%

First Congressional District
Fmr. Sen. Martha Fuller Clark, D - 50%
Rep. Frank Guinta, R - 40%
Other/Undecided - 10%

Second Congressional District
Lobbyist Annie Kuster, D - 46%
Rep. Charlie Bass, R - 44%
Other/Undecided - 10%

Presidential Election, In New Hampshire
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney/Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman, R - 52%
Pres. Barack Obama/Vice Pres. Joe Biden, D - 46%
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson/Judge Jim Gray, L - 1%
Other/Undecided - 1%

Executive Council, District 1
Executive Councillor Ray Burton, R - 60%
Beth Funicella, D - 31%
Other/Undecided - 9%

Executive Council, District 2
Businessman Colin Van Ostern, D - 52%
Lawyer Michael Tierney, R - 44%
Other/Undecided - 4%

Executive Council, District 3
Executive Councillor Chris Sununu, R - 50%
Advocate Bill Duncan, D - 44%
Other/Undecided - 6%

Executive Council, District 4
Businessman Chris Pappas, D - 40%
Lawyer Joe Kelly Levasseur, R - 40%
Other/Undecided - 20%

Executive Council, District 5
Fmr. Executive Councilor Deb Pignatelli, D - 43%
Executive Councilor David Wheeler, R - 41%
Other/Undecided - 16%

[DKrol]

Part VII:The 2012 Campaign



Steve Kornacki: What we're seeing in New Hampshire this cycle is the state-level candidates tying themselves to the top-of-the-ticket Presidential candidates. Ted Gatsas, the Republican nominee for Governor, has done this particularly well, appearing all three of the rallies the Romney-Huntsman campaign has held in New Hampshire since winning the nomination. Just this week, Gatsas and Huntsman toured business in downtown Portsmouth, a traditional Democratic stronghold in the state.

On the other side, former State Senator Martha Fuller Clark, who is the Democratic nominee for Congress, has allied herself with President Obama's re-election campaign, hosting the President and First Lady at a traditional New Hampshire house party at her home. An interesting element of the race for New Hampshire's first Congressional district involved a donation Frank Guinta received during his 2010 run for the seat. A nearly $350,000 loan originated in a bank account Guinta had not previously disclosed and now claims is a joint-account with his parents. Fuller Clark has latched on to this scandal, which the House Ethics Committee dismissed last year, and made it a central attack of her campaign.







Paul Steinhauser: At the state level, things look to be favoring the Republicans. Ted Gatsas, Charlie Bass, and Mitt Romney all have leads in the most recent polls, as do three of the five Republican candidates for Executive Council. The exception is Congressman Frank Guinta, who is lagging behind former State Senator Martha Fuller Clark. The problem for Guinta seems to be a personal one related to campaign finance allegations.

It seems unlikely that the Republicans 19-5 supermajority in the State Senate will hold strong. Our NH1 projection expects a 13-10 Democratic Majority, with one seat, the 9th District, too close to project, between Democrat Lee Nyquist and Republican Andy Sanborn. In the State House, our NH1 project expects a 210-190 Democratic majority, although the degree of certainty is much lower and, we think, will largely depend on the outcome of the Presidential and Gubernatorial races.

WMUR/Saint Anselm College Polling, October 21, 2012

Governor
Mayor Ted Gatsas, R - 52%
Fmr. Sen. Maggie Hassan, D - 46%
Other/Undecided - 2%

First Congressional District
Fmr. Sen. Martha Fuller Clark, D - 57%
Rep. Frank Guinta, R - 41%
Other/Undecided - 12%

Second Congressional District
Rep. Charlie Bass, R - 48%
Lobbyist Annie Kuster, D - 48%
Other/Undecided - 4%

Presidential Election, In New Hampshire
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney/Fmr. Gov. Jon Huntsman, R - 52%
Pres. Barack Obama/Vice Pres. Joe Biden, D - 43%
Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson/Judge Jim Gray, L - 2%
Other/Undecided - 2%

Executive Council, District 1
Executive Councillor Ray Burton, R - 65%
Beth Funicella, D - 24%
Other/Undecided - 11%

Executive Council, District 2
Businessman Colin Van Ostern, D - 49%
Lawyer Michael Tierney, R - 49%
Other/Undecided - 2%

Executive Council, District 3
Executive Councillor Chris Sununu, R - 53%
Advocate Bill Duncan, D - 35%
Other/Undecided - 12%

Executive Council, District 4
Lawyer Joe Kelly Levasseur, R - 42%
Businessman Chris Pappas, D - 40%
Other/Undecided - 18%

Executive Council, District 5
Fmr. Executive Councilor Deb Pignatelli, D - 45%
Executive Councilor David Wheeler, R - 42%
Other/Undecided - 13%

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Please don't use images with watermarks.

[DKrol]

Please don't use images with watermarks.

Ok, sorry.

[DKrol]

This TL is on pause until the guidelines for posting photos and pictures is clarified. I don't want to post just pages of text.

[LoneStarDem]

Why is Hassan having trouble cracking double digits ?

[Continential]

Why is Hassan having trouble cracking double digits ?

Gestas is better then loser OVAL

[DKrol]

Why is Hassan having trouble cracking double digits ?

Why is Hassan having trouble cracking double digits ?

Gestas is better then loser OVAL

Exactly this reason. Gatsas is simply more popular than Ovide was IRL. Also, Romney is performing better in NH in the TL than IRL, which is helping Gatsas.

[LoneStarDem]

I have some questions:

1.) Did Lynch reside in the Executive Mansion in Concord ?

2.) Can Obama's coattails help Hassan ?

3.) Should the DGA be worried & spend some resources ?

[DKrol]

I have some questions:

1.) Did Lynch reside in the Executive Mansion in Concord ?

2.) Can Obama's coattails help Hassan ?

3.) Should the DGA be worried & spend some resources ?

1. No, considering is from the Concord suburb of Hopkinton.

2. They could.

3. The DGA has invested in the race, as has the RGA.

[LoneStarDem]

Who was the last NH Governor to stay in the Executive Mansion on full-time basis ?

[DKrol]

Who was the last NH Governor to stay in the Executive Mansion on full-time basis ?

I'm not really sure. I'd guess either Benson (resident of Rye) or Shaheen (resident of Madbury) but I really have no idea other than that Lynch and Hassan didn't and Sununu doesn't.

[Continential]

Who was the last NH Governor to stay in the Executive Mansion on full-time basis ?

I'm not really sure. I'd guess either Benson (resident of Rye) or Shaheen (resident of Madbury) but I really have no idea other than that Lynch and Hassan didn't and Sununu doesn't.

I wonder why they hadn't sold the Mansion.

[DKrol]

Who was the last NH Governor to stay in the Executive Mansion on full-time basis ?

I'm not really sure. I'd guess either Benson (resident of Rye) or Shaheen (resident of Madbury) but I really have no idea other than that Lynch and Hassan didn't and Sununu doesn't.

I wonder why they hadn't sold the Mansion.

They use it to host functions for the Governor, including the Christmas Tree Lighting and the Governor's Christmas Party, and it's been used as a tranition office for incoming administrations. I think the Upham Walker House, next to the State House and owned by the General Court, could serve many of those purposes.

[DKrol]

Part VIII: 2012 Wraps Up

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for President, held his final rally of the campaign at Manchester's Verizon Wireless Arena. Romney and his running mate, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, chose the Granite State as their final campaign stop to ensure they had a positive final event - the ticket held a 7% lead in the most recent WMUR/Saint Anselm College poll. Their lead was helping Republicans up and down the ballot, especially Gubernatorial candidate Ted Gatsas, who was easily 10% above his Democratic opponent. Republicans also seemed poised to hold on to their majority in the State Senate, although it was clear that their supermajority would be vastly diminished.

Democrats didn't give up on the Granite State. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden both made last-minute trips to New Hampshire, traveling between UNH, Saint Anselm College, and Dartmouth to try and boost youth turnout. The main critique of the Obama/Biden ticket, according to exit polls from Election Day in New Hampshire, was that they "Didn't support the ideas of the New Hampshire Advantage", which had been a main talking point of the NHGOP. The only Democratic candidate who felt really confident going into Election Day was Congressional Candidate Martha Fuller Clark, who had used a scandal-plagued incumbent to her advantage.

As the votes came in, it was clear the polls weren't as accurate as Republicans had hoped for. A larger percentage of votes came in for the Libertarian ticket for President, with Gary Johnson and Jim Gray pulling 3% in New Hampshire. Romney/Huntsman was able to pull off a narrow victory in Hillsborough County thanks to Gatsas' voter turnout machine in Manchester but fell short of a blow-out in Belknap County, a traditional Republican stronghold.

Around 10:45 PM, WMUR called the Gubernatorial race for Ted Gatsas, who ended up securing 56% of the vote, compared to Hassan's 44%, with over 700,000 votes cast. Shortly after, Martha Fuller Clark defeated incumbent Congressman Frank Guinta 53% to 47%, with Guinta putting up a surprisingly strong showing in Manchester and Bedford. Annie Kuster bested Charlie Bass in the second district with a 51%-49% majority, as called just before midnight, but Bass filed for a recount almost immediately.

It wasn't until 1:15 AM that CNN was able to project the Presidential race in New Hampshire. With a margin less than 2,000 votes, Romney and Huntsman added New Hampshire's 4 Electoral Votes to their tally, bringing their national total to 239 at that point. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Colorado were still too close to be called. After a grueling evening, New Hampshire's votes did not matter. Obama came through in Virginia and Pennsylvania, despite Romney winning in Colorado and Michigan, and secured a second term. Democrats increased their US Senate majority to 53 seats, a net gain of two, compared to 47 Republicans. The parties swapped seats in Maine and Nebraska, with Joe Donnelly's win in Indiana and Scott Brown's loss in Massachusetts being the only net changes. John Boehner maintained his Speakership, albeit with a reduced 234-seat majority, compared to the Democrats' 201 seats.

Back in New Hampshire, Republicans maintained their majority in the 24-member State Senate, with victories in 15 districts, compared to the 9 won by Democrats. In the State House of Representatives, Democrats found a bright spot in their 204-196 majority, largely thanks to massive success in Cheshire, Grafton, and Rockingham Counties. The Executive Council was a 4-1 Republican Majority, with incumbents Ray Burton and Chris Sununu being joined by newcomers Michael Tierney and Joe Kelly Levasseur. Former Executive Councillor Deb Pignatelli was able to reclaim her former seat and secure at least one Democratic voice on the Council.

The recount in the second Congressional District was completed on November 21. Charlie Bass ended up holding on to his seat with a 17-vote majority. NHGOP officials claimed that the narrow margins, compared to polls before the elections, were due to Democrats busing in voters from Massachusetts and Vermont to college towns in order to inflate Democratic vote totals, pointing to the near-record turnout in the state. New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley denied the claim as "fearmongering".

In his inaugural address before a joint session of the General Court, Governor Gatsas pledged to address the issue of voter fraud "to ensure that New Hampshire's elected officials are elected by New Hampshire voters". This line drew cheers from Republicans and jeers from Democrats. A target of Gatsas' pledge was long-time Secretary of State Bill Gardner. In office since 1976, Gatsas viewed Gardner as "a soft, weak chain in the security of our state". Gatsas asked the General Court to appoint someone new to the office, located on the second floor of the State House just down the hall from the Governor's office. Gatsas' recommendation was former Governor Craig Benson. The vote, held just days in Gatsas' term, was strictly along party lines. All 211 Republicans voted for Benson, while all 213 Democrats voted to back Gardner.

With that two-vote margin, Gatsas suffered what became the first loss of his term. But it certainly wasn't the last.

[LoneStarDem]

How in the expletive did Obama lose CO, FL, MI ?