Firehouse (R)/Optimus: Biden with big leads in the early states

[Gass3268]

Source

[Sirius_]

While I don't doubt that Biden is leading right now I also don't trust any pollster with a (D) or an (R).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Bernie or Beto surprises, Biden will be the nominee, it maybe the dream ticket: Biden-Tim Ryan would put Trump on defense in IA; Va and OH

[Zaybay]

Weird, this poll shows Sanders gained about 4 points in the three states. Was he really behind Buttigieg and Harris in all three in the last poll?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cory Booker and Castro need to drop out.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It would be kind of hilarious if Biden did what we all expected Hillary to do last time, run the table and win all 50 states, given that no expects that to happen this time.

[Gass3268]

It would be kind of hilarious if Biden did what we all expected Hillary to do last time, run the table and win all 50 states, given that no expects that to happen this time.

While Biden obviously has his issues, he doesn't have ~20ish years of built up institutional hate against him like Hillary did.

[Sir Mohamed]

Big if true. Biggest threat to Biden is his own mouth and the debates, I guess.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Big if true. Biggest threat to Biden is his own mouth and the debates, I guess.

Historically, Biden's debate performances have been pretty solid though:
- He destroyed Rudy Giuliani in 2007 and gave rise to the "Noun, Verb, and 9/11" thing that Giuliani was never able to shake after that point
- He was relatable during his debate with Sarah Palin, and didn't give her any openings to play victim or crybully him
- He laughed Paul Ryan off the stage in 2012

[Sir Mohamed]

Big if true. Biggest threat to Biden is his own mouth and the debates, I guess.

Historically, Biden's debate performances have been pretty solid though:
- He destroyed Rudy Giuliani in 2007 and gave rise to the "Noun, Verb, and 9/11" thing that Giuliani was never able to shake after that point
- He was relatable during his debate with Sarah Palin, and didn't give her any openings to play victim or crybully him
- He laughed Paul Ryan off the stage in 2012

He's not the weakest debater for sure, but a known gaffe machine and he'll have to compete with men and women who make a much fresher and vital impression. Same with Sanders, who is a year older.

[History505]

It's still early, but those aren't good numbers for Sanders out of NH.

[Xing]

We're seriously trusting this pollster? lol

[Xing]

We're seriously trusting this pollster? lol

It’s in line with every other recent poll.

Doesn't make it a good pollster, nor a good idea to assume that support is completely baked in nine months before the primaries.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Firehouse Subs and Optimus Prime team up again for a lean trash poll.

While I don't doubt that Biden is leading right now I also don't trust any pollster with a (D) or an (R).

[Sorenroy]

Weird, this poll shows Sanders gained about 4 points in the three states. Was he really behind Buttigieg and Harris in all three in the last poll?

The numbers they are comparing to are from their previous polls, but those last polls were done three months ago (January 31 to February 2). As such, the dash next to Buttigieg's numbers represents that he was not included last time rather then that there has been no change (also notice the ±0 next to Warren and Klobuchar's numbers). Further, to bring more reference to the gains, just take a look at the change in undecideds. Finally, Sanders was trailing Biden, Harris, and Warren in Iowa, trailing Biden and tied with Harris in New Hampshire, and trailing Biden and Harris in South Carolina.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Weird, this poll shows Sanders gained about 4 points in the three states. Was he really behind Buttigieg and Harris in all three in the last poll?

I guess Sanders was behind Harris.  Really strange that Harris was ever polling at 17% in Iowa. 
But I think they didn't poll Buttigieg at all in the last poll.

[President Johnson]

Great numbers for Uncle Joe! If the election results are similar to these numbers, he may not run the table, but up 40-45 states.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Biden certainly won't win all 50 states (Bernie is guaranteed to win Vermont, at the very least), but it is indeed starting to look like he could win ~40 states and steamroll his way to the nomination, as unfortunate as that is.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

No Bernie or Beto surprises, Biden will be the nominee, it maybe the dream ticket: Biden-Tim Ryan would put Trump on defense in IA; Va and OH

Tim Ryan is a low energy guy, he puts me to sleep.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't heard from him lately either. He got into race and never bothered to fully campaign

[MT Treasurer]

We're seriously trusting this pollster? lol

It’s in line with every other recent poll.

Doesn't make it a good pollster, nor a good idea to assume that support is completely baked in nine months before the primaries.

No one is saying that support is completely baked in yet, but Sanders is literally trailing by 18 points in a state he won by 22 points in 2016 (not to mention going from 60% to 15.5%), a year in which he lost by 12 points nationally. Those are beyond awful numbers for him, to the point where even matching his 2016 levels of support would be an unprecedented comeback at this point, much less winning the nomination.

[Xing]

We're seriously trusting this pollster? lol

It’s in line with every other recent poll.

Doesn't make it a good pollster, nor a good idea to assume that support is completely baked in nine months before the primaries.

No one is saying that support is completely baked in yet, but Sanders is literally trailing by 18 points in a state he won by 22 points in 2016 (not to mention going from 60% to 15.5%), a year in which he lost by 12 points nationally. Those are beyond awful numbers for him, to the point where even matching his 2016 levels of support would be an unprecedented comeback at this point, much less winning the nomination.

Precedent doesn't mean much in a 21-person race. Let's see where things stand in a couple of months (at least.) I wouldn't think you would be one to make confident predictions long before elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We're seriously trusting this pollster? lol

There's more than meets the eye!