Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 18, 2019, 02:11:32 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  2022 Gubernatorial Elections
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: 2022 Gubernatorial Elections  (Read 1135 times)
Politician stands with Sanchez
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 06, 2019, 12:12:20 pm »
« edited: May 06, 2019, 01:21:02 pm by Unbeatable Titan Joe Biden »

If Trump loses:


VT and MA are Safe R if the incumbents run, Likely D if they don't.

If Trump wins:

VT and MA are Safe R if the incumbents run, Safe D if they don't.
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,473
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2019, 01:07:14 pm »

Looks pretty reasonable. However, I think Gretchen Whitmer is favored for reelection even if Trump loses. Definitely more safe than Tony Evers or th open seat in Pennsylvania.
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2019, 01:15:56 pm »

Here in TX, Abbott's very popular & he's likely running again in 2022 based on the massive $$$ he's piling up in fundraising & donors contributing to his campaign.

In NY St: Cuomo pretty much all but said he's pushing toward a 4th term in 2022 & if he pulls it off, he'll accomplish something that his late Daddy couldn't do in 1994, win a 4th term.

Logged
Duke of York
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 345


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2019, 04:05:47 pm »

Here in TX, Abbott's very popular & he's likely running again in 2022 based on the massive $$$ he's piling up in fundraising & donors contributing to his campaign.

In NY St: Cuomo pretty much all but said he's pushing toward a 4th term in 2022 & if he pulls it off, he'll accomplish something that his late Daddy couldn't do in 1994, win a 4th term.



If Cuomo runs for a fourth term its very unlikely he doesnt get it. New York is a very different state then it was in 1994.

He will likely face a much stronger primary challenge.

I agree with a above poster that Whitmer is likely favored for reelection. Evers is probably lean D. Pennsylvania will probably go republican. Pennsylvania has not elected back to back governors of the same party in many years.

Polis will likely get a second term. Hickenlooper held on in 2014 and its reasonable to assume Polis would survive under a Democratic preisdent
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26,443
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2019, 04:22:10 pm »

Ga isn't flipping
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2019, 04:38:54 pm »

Here in TX, Abbott's very popular & he's likely running again in 2022 based on the massive $$$ he's piling up in fundraising & donors contributing to his campaign.

In NY St: Cuomo pretty much all but said he's pushing toward a 4th term in 2022 & if he pulls it off, he'll accomplish something that his late Daddy couldn't do in 1994, win a 4th term.



If Cuomo runs for a fourth term its very unlikely he doesnt get it. New York is a very different state then it was in 1994.

He will likely face a much stronger primary challenge.

I agree with a above poster that Whitmer is likely favored for reelection. Evers is probably lean D. Pennsylvania will probably go republican. Pennsylvania has not elected back to back governors of the same party in many years.

Polis will likely get a second term. Hickenlooper held on in 2014 and its reasonable to assume Polis would survive under a Democratic preisdent

1.) Last NY St Governor to win a 4th term was Good Ole Rocky in 1970.

2.) Cuomo isn't scared of a primary challenge, I don't see him getting Dolph Briscoe'd. He's won 4 consecutive statewide elections (State AG in 2006 & Governor in 2010, 2014 & 2018). I don't see him losing & he's fundraising non-stop.

3.) Assuming POTUS Trump wins reelection in 2020, would PA flip back to GOP ?

4.) Pritzker (assuming he's not convicted of any corruption scandals) should be safe to win a 2nd term in IL.

5.) AZ is anyone's guess. I do believe one of the AZ Dem down-ballot statewide officeholders will take a risk by running for the Governorship.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,009


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2019, 05:03:48 pm »

1. FL is lean to likely R (DeSantis has a 60% approval rate)
2. KS is tossup no matter what
3. GA won't be lean D (including in a Trump midterm)
4. OH is not competitive (D have no bench at all in the state + trending right)
5. NM is safe D no matter who is in the WH
Logged
ctrepublican512
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 77
P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2019, 12:58:34 am »

CT will be close per usual...if Trump loses tossup, not lean in any direction
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2019, 07:10:49 am »

AL: Safe R
AK: Likely R
AZ: Tossup
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D
CO: Safe D
FL: Lean R
GA: Lean R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Likely D
IA: Lean R
KS: Tossup
ME: Lean D
MD: Safe D
MI: tossup
MN: Likely D
NE: Likely R
NV: Likely D
NH: Tossup
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
OH: Likely R
OK: Safe R
OR: Safe D
PA: Tossup
RI: Likely D
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
TN: Safe R
TX: Likely R
VT: Likely D
WI: Tossup
WY: Safe R

Whitmer is likely to win reelection BIGLY in 2022.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,009


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2019, 09:22:25 am »

AL: Safe R
AK: Likely R
AZ: Tossup
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D
CO: Safe D
FL: Lean R
GA: Lean R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Likely D
IA: Lean R
KS: Tossup
ME: Lean D
MD: Safe D
MI: tossup
MN: Likely D
NE: Likely R
NV: Likely D
NH: Tossup
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
OH: Likely R
OK: Safe R
OR: Safe D
PA: Tossup
RI: Likely D
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
TN: Safe R
TX: Likely R
VT: Likely D
WI: Tossup
WY: Safe R

Whitmer is likely to win reelection BIGLY in 2022.

She is the favourite but the gas tax hike could really hurt her.
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2019, 10:19:44 am »

AL: Safe R
AK: Likely R
AZ: Tossup
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D
CO: Safe D
FL: Lean R
GA: Lean R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Likely D
IA: Lean R
KS: Tossup
ME: Lean D
MD: Safe D
MI: tossup
MN: Likely D
NE: Likely R
NV: Likely D
NH: Tossup
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
OH: Likely R
OK: Safe R
OR: Safe D
PA: Tossup
RI: Likely D
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
TN: Safe R
TX: Likely R
VT: Likely D
WI: Tossup
WY: Safe R

Whitmer is likely to win reelection BIGLY in 2022.

She is the favourite but the gas tax hike could really hurt her.

You're referring to her as the female Mark White, who raised taxes, which resulted in him losing reelection in 1986 ?
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,009


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2019, 11:05:10 am »

AL: Safe R
AK: Likely R
AZ: Tossup
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D
CO: Safe D
FL: Lean R
GA: Lean R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Likely D
IA: Lean R
KS: Tossup
ME: Lean D
MD: Safe D
MI: tossup
MN: Likely D
NE: Likely R
NV: Likely D
NH: Tossup
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
OH: Likely R
OK: Safe R
OR: Safe D
PA: Tossup
RI: Likely D
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
TN: Safe R
TX: Likely R
VT: Likely D
WI: Tossup
WY: Safe R

Whitmer is likely to win reelection BIGLY in 2022.

She is the favourite but the gas tax hike could really hurt her.

You're referring to her as the female Mark White, who raised taxes, which resulted in him losing reelection in 1986 ?

To be honest, I didn't had this example in my mind when I wrote my comment, but yeah it could be a good comparison.
Now of course it's conceivable that the gas tax will be forgotten by 2022
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2019, 12:55:23 pm »

The obstructionist GOP-controlled MI State Legislature will overplay their hand sooner or later, they've been undermining Whitmer every step of the way since she took her hand off the Bible 4 months ago.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,009


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2019, 01:06:24 pm »

The obstructionist GOP-controlled MI State Legislature will overplay their hand sooner or later, they've been undermining Whitmer every step of the way since she took her hand off the Bible 4 months ago.

But generally speaking voters tend to side with the legislature, just look at Illinois, dems obstructed Bruce Rauner for four full years and in the end voters rewarded Madigan by electing a D governor.
Logged
Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
MAINEiac4434
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,324
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2019, 01:15:46 pm »

I will note no Maine Governor has lost re-election since 1966.
Logged
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26,443
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2019, 01:21:07 pm »



This is more likely to happen:

Tilt D: CA, CO, CT, DEL, HI, IL, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MI, MN, NV, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OR, PA, RI, VA, WA, WI
Tossup: AZ, IA, and NH
Tilt GOP: AL, AK, AR, FL, GA, ID, IN, MA, MS, MO, MT, NEB, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, WVA and WY
Logged
S019
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,599
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: 1.74

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2019, 01:22:35 pm »


I except a 2021 recession with Trump Pres

Flip KS, LA

Flip TX, IA, FL
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,473
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2019, 02:05:07 pm »

Here in TX, Abbott's very popular & he's likely running again in 2022 based on the massive $$$ he's piling up in fundraising & donors contributing to his campaign.

In NY St: Cuomo pretty much all but said he's pushing toward a 4th term in 2022 & if he pulls it off, he'll accomplish something that his late Daddy couldn't do in 1994, win a 4th term.



If Cuomo runs for a fourth term its very unlikely he doesnt get it. New York is a very different state then it was in 1994.

He will likely face a much stronger primary challenge.

I agree with a above poster that Whitmer is likely favored for reelection. Evers is probably lean D. Pennsylvania will probably go republican. Pennsylvania has not elected back to back governors of the same party in many years.

Polis will likely get a second term. Hickenlooper held on in 2014 and its reasonable to assume Polis would survive under a Democratic preisdent

1.) Last NY St Governor to win a 4th term was Good Ole Rocky in 1970.

2.) Cuomo isn't scared of a primary challenge, I don't see him getting Dolph Briscoe'd. He's won 4 consecutive statewide elections (State AG in 2006 & Governor in 2010, 2014 & 2018). I don't see him losing & he's fundraising non-stop.



Andrew Cuomo would once again beat his challenger by a 2-1 margin. He pretty much remains governor as long as he wants. However, I hope Queen Kathy gets the chance to succeed him.
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,656


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2019, 02:17:22 pm »

I think Knute would have an excellent chance of winning if Trump isnt President. He probably wins this time if Hillary was President
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,473
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2019, 02:26:25 pm »

I think Knute would have an excellent chance of winning if Trump isnt President. He probably wins this time if Hillary was President

Is he a moderate? In that scenario, I could see a Republican winning, but it won't be easy.
Logged
LoneStarDem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 982
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2019, 02:31:03 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2019, 03:15:11 pm by LoneStarDem »


I except a 2021 recession with Trump Pres

Flip KS, LA

Flip TX, IA, FL

TX: Abbott will NOT lose reelection, he's likely seeking 3rd term & still popular.

IA: Reynolds can stay in Terrace Hill as long as she wants.

FL: DeSantis will win reelection by double digits & the FL Dems are incompetent & close to minor party status down there.

KS: Kelly will be targeted by the RGA no doubt about it.

2019:
LA: JBE wins reelection by double digits.

KY: Bevin survives in narrow contest against Baby Beshear

2020:
NC: Cooper wins easily by double digits

MT: GOP pick-up

DE: Carney wins with 70%.

VT: Scott wins 3rd term

NH: Sununu wins reelection for 3rd term

Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,656


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2019, 03:29:10 pm »

I think Knute would have an excellent chance of winning if Trump isnt President. He probably wins this time if Hillary was President

Is he a moderate? In that scenario, I could see a Republican winning, but it won't be easy.

Yes hes a Charlie Baker style Republican and Kate Brown is not that popular. She won by less than 7 points as an incumbent in a dem wave year .


She would have lost if Hillary was President
Logged
S019
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,599
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.55, S: 1.74

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2019, 03:42:53 pm »


I except a 2021 recession with Trump Pres

Flip KS, LA

Flip TX, IA, FL

TX: Abbott will NOT lose reelection, he's likely seeking 3rd term & still popular.

If Trump wins reelection, he just retires, he doesn't want to be around when the Sun Belt dam bursts

IA: Reynolds can stay in Terrace Hill as long as she wants.
She runs for Senate and wins, it's Adam Gregg, who loses

FL: DeSantis will win reelection by double digits & the FL Dems are incompetent & close to minor party status down there

No, but this will be the last statewide election, Democratd win for a long time, I honestly see FL becoming like NV/CO, but for the Republicans, within the next decade

KS: Kelly will be targeted by the RGA no doubt about it.

And she's done, Kevin Yoder will Blanche her and I will eat popcorn, watching it happen

2019:
LA: JBE wins reelection by double digits

He loses:
Polarization, and the South is very, very, very inelastic

KY: Bevin survives in narrow contest against Baby Beshear
It's KY, but I remember muh-tossup Alison Lundergan Grimes and Governor (and Senator) Conway


2020:
NC: Cooper wins easily by double digits

I think he wins, while Tillis survives, but Trump could drag both Forest and Tillis over the finish line, but NC is quite elastic, as shown by Kay Hagan's win over Elizabeth Dole, Gun to my head, Cooper by three

MT: GOP pick-up
Yeah, Cooney is done and will lose by 15-20, he should probably just run for Senate and embarrass himself there, rather than trying to run against Tim Fox


DE: Carney wins with 70%.

Yes

VT: Scott wins 3rd term

Yes

NH: Sununu wins reelection for 3rd term

Not sure, I think he goes for Senate, and Ayotte loses the governorship by 0.5-2 points

Logged
Bagel23
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,190
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2019, 03:56:00 pm »

AL: Safe R
AK: Likely R
AZ: Tossup
AR: Safe R
CA: Safe D
CO: Safe D
FL: Lean R
GA: Lean R
HI: Safe D
ID: Safe R
IL: Likely D
IA: Lean R
KS: Tossup
ME: Lean D
MD: Safe D
MI: tossup
MN: Likely D
NE: Likely R
NV: Likely D
NH: Tossup
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
OH: Likely R
OK: Safe R
OR: Safe D
PA: Tossup
RI: Likely D
SC: Safe R
SD: Safe R
TN: Safe R
TX: Likely R
VT: Likely D
WI: Tossup
WY: Safe R

What about MA?
Logged
bronz4141
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,689
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2019, 04:05:58 pm »

PA-GOV 2022: Sims for the Democrats?
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC