Morning Consult: Biden 40,Sanders 19,Warren 8, Harris 7, Buttigieg 6,O'Rourke 5

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National poll April 29 – May 5 2019.

Biden 40 (+4)
Sanders 19 (-3)
Warren 8 (-1)
Harris 7
Buttigieg 6 (-2)
O'Rourke 5
Booker 3
Klobuchar 2
Yang 1 (-1)
Gillibrand 1
Ryan 1
Castro 1
Delaney 1
Hicklenlooper 1
Bullock 1 (-1)
Gabbard 1
Inslee 0 (-1)
Moulton 0

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like Joe is rubbing off his competition.

More seriously, I think a lot of Democrats underestimated how many of their gains have come from really deep-down conservative suburbanites identifying as Democrats. The base has radicalized some, yes, but there's now a whole swath of voters that no candidate is really going to compete with Biden for in the early stages. These are the folks who like that Biden says "Trump doesn't represent the Republican Party" because until recently, that was them. They'll go for him because he's moderate and well-known.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Yeah, it's becoming clear to me that this is Biden's race to lose, as much as I wish Bernie or Warren were leading instead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As much as I hate to say it, I really don't see Biden losing.

[Yank2133]

Black:
Biden 47%
Sanders 19%
Harris 10%
Warren 5%
Booker 5%
O’Rourke 3%
Buttigieg 1%

This right here is the ball game. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris 10%, she won't win

[BundouYMB]

Looks like Joe is rubbing off his competition.

More seriously, I think a lot of Democrats underestimated how many of their gains have come from really deep-down conservative suburbanites identifying as Democrats. The base has radicalized some, yes, but there's now a whole swath of voters that no candidate is really going to compete with Biden for in the early stages. These are the folks who like that Biden says "Trump doesn't represent the Republican Party" because until recently, that was them. They'll go for him because he's moderate and well-known.

This is a terrible take. When you look at crosstabs it becomes obvious Biden's support is based in traditionally democratic constituencies. To take just one example, he's polling better among non-whites than whites in every poll.

[Xing]

It's over already? Wow, I hadn't heard that the Iowa Caucuses were taking place tomorrow and that all of the debates had been cancelled.

[S019]

It's over already? Wow, I hadn't heard that the Iowa Caucuses were taking place tomorrow and that all of the debates had been cancelled.

As much as you are often right, and one of the best with political predictions, Joe Biden's lead is much bigger than Dean Heller's was at any point. Also Pelosi, in a NYT interview poured cold water on progressivism, I just think that this right now, favors Biden

Interview: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/04/us/politics/nancy-pelosi.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Count me down as still believing that Biden will collapse in a few months, hope I am wrong though.

[Xing]

It's over already? Wow, I hadn't heard that the Iowa Caucuses were taking place tomorrow and that all of the debates had been cancelled.

As much as you are often right, and one of the best with political predictions, Joe Biden's lead is much bigger than Dean Heller's was at any point. Also Pelosi, in a NYT interview poured cold water on progressivism, I just think that this right now, favors Biden

Interview: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/04/us/politics/nancy-pelosi.html

Partisan races =/= Primaries. And Pelosi may speak for the Democratic leaders, but that doesn't mean she speaks for Democratic voters.

[OneJ]

Oh well. It’s nice to see Warren in third place and doing okay with black voters considering what she and the others are up against.

Looks like Joe is rubbing off his competition.

More seriously, I think a lot of Democrats underestimated how many of their gains have come from really deep-down conservative suburbanites identifying as Democrats. The base has radicalized some, yes, but there's now a whole swath of voters that no candidate is really going to compete with Biden for in the early stages. These are the folks who like that Biden says "Trump doesn't represent the Republican Party" because until recently, that was them. They'll go for him because he's moderate and well-known.

Those suburbanites that you are talking about are not conservative. Moderate, maybe even fairly liberal, but not conservative.

[Skye]

Dunno exactly why Biden was/is widely underestimated. Even before the huge bump he got after his announcement, he was already in a very good position, and people just liked to pretend he wasn't. His campaign could very well deflate over time due to blunders, or implode after a scandal, sure, but there's no denying now he is the frontrunner.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It wasn't he was underestimated, he was hesitant about running and Bernie had all the momentum.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

As much as I hate to say it, I really don't see Biden losing.

I told you Harris wouldn't  be the nominee.

[ProudModerate2]

Biden still moving up, while others falter.
It's still early and anything can happen, but the lead is huge.

[History505]

Count me down as still believing that Biden will collapse in a few months, hope I am wrong though.

I don't think even Giuliani got into the 40s when he was leading in 2007. I'm not sure about that.

[Mr. Morden]

Count me down as still believing that Biden will collapse in a few months, hope I am wrong though.

I don't think even Giuliani got into the 40s when he was leading in 2007. I'm not sure about that.

Giuliani had multiple polls in the 40s back in February and March of 2007:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

His last poll in the 40s was in mid-March 2007, though he had several in the high 30s after that.

[History505]

Count me down as still believing that Biden will collapse in a few months, hope I am wrong though.

I don't think even Giuliani got into the 40s when he was leading in 2007. I'm not sure about that.

Giuliani had multiple polls in the 40s back in February and March of 2007:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

His last poll in the 40s was in mid-March 2007, though he had several in the high 30s after that.

Oh, I see. That's interesting. He really faded significantly over time.

[User155815470020]

Looks like Joe is rubbing off his competition.

More seriously, I think a lot of Democrats underestimated how many of their gains have come from really deep-down conservative suburbanites identifying as Democrats. The base has radicalized some, yes, but there's now a whole swath of voters that no candidate is really going to compete with Biden for in the early stages. These are the folks who like that Biden says "Trump doesn't represent the Republican Party" because until recently, that was them. They'll go for him because he's moderate and well-known.

But are these voters going to remain opposed to Trump[ism], support Biden,  and turn out for Biden in 2020, as opposed to falling in line behind the Republican nominee or voting third-party. How many of these voters will back Weld in the GOP primary versus registering as a Democrat and voting for Biden in the primary? Part of the Clinton '16 strategy was to enthuse "moderate Republican" suburbanites in PA, WI, IL, and OH (Chuck Schumer famously said that for every progressive Democratic base voter that Clinton isolates, she will gain 2-3 "moderate Republican" suburbanites). That didn't turn out so well.

[The Mikado]

How many of these voters will back Weld in the GOP primary versus registering as a Democrat and voting for Biden in the primary?

Weld voters are going to be basically negligible. 10-15% regularly in a low turnout GOP primary. Maybe a few thousand/tens of thousands of people per state. Also, anyone voting in the GOP primary in 2020 isn't likely to have even considered voting in the Dem primary to begin with.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among Dems:
Biden 76/15% for +61%
Sanders 73/18% for +55%
Warren 56/16% for +40%
Harris 50/12% for +38%
O’Rourke 44/13% for +31%
Booker 43/12% for +31%
Buttigieg 39/10% for +29%
Klobuchar 30/11% for +19%
Gillibrand 32/14% for +18%
Castro 27/12% for +15%
Hickenlooper 16/9% for +7%
Inslee 15/8% for +7%
Yang 16/9% for +7%
Gabbard 17/11% for +6%
Delaney 13/9% for +4%
Bullock 11/8% for +3%
Ryan 16/14% for +2%
Moulton 9/8% for +1%

[TML]

Note that Sanders is the second choice for about a third of Biden supports, a quarter of Warren supporters, and an eighth of Harris supporters. This means that it is still possible for Sanders to pick off some current supporters of other candidates to put himself over the top. The main question now is whether or not he will move aggressively to do so (this is how Obama triumphed in the 2008 primaries).