AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Biden+5 vs. Trump, other Dems trailing
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  AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Biden+5 vs. Trump, other Dems trailing
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Author Topic: AZ-OH Predictive Insights: Biden+5 vs. Trump, other Dems trailing  (Read 2584 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 07, 2019, 07:00:00 AM »

49% Biden (+5)
44% Trump

Quote
"Trump, who beat Hillary Clinton in Arizona by 3.5 points in 2016, could be the first Republican to lose the state since Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in 1996."

47% Trump (+5)
42% Warren

46% Trump (+6)
40% O'Rourke

48% Trump (+9)
39% Harris

46% Trump (+9)
37% Sanders

46% Trump (+9)
37% Buttigieg

Quote
The poll of 600 likely Arizona general election voters, conducted May 1-2, has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/442422-biden-tops-trump-by-5-points-in-arizona-poll
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2019, 07:57:28 AM »

I wish this pollster would change their name.  At first glance I always think it's an Ohio poll. Smiley
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2019, 08:37:40 AM »

It looks as though Mcsally isn't gonna a win with Biden polling so well. Even in AZ
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2019, 08:55:28 AM »

It's really a bad poll for Trump, especially when you consider that OH-predictive tends to underestimate dems
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Annatar
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2019, 09:00:06 AM »

Their final poll was around 3% more favourable to McSally then the actual result so I would apply a 3% discount to their results.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2019, 11:40:26 AM »

No, the only way Biden can win this deep-red-since-1952-totally-not-as-competitive-as-WI/MI/PA state is by wearing boots, a tutu, a pink coat, and a fur stole and running moderate hero ads to win over those dissatisfied hardcore Republicans in Maricopa County. Arizona is going to settle for nothing less than that, it’s not like this is a Democratic-trending Trump +3 state where Democrats just won several statewide offices and the popular vote for House or anything.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2019, 12:06:08 PM »

Yeah, up 5 a year and a half out, Biden's got Arizona locked up. Just ask President Clinton about how easily she won Ohio.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2019, 01:11:20 PM »

Yeah, up 5 a year and a half out, Biden's got Arizona locked up. Just ask President Clinton about how easily she won Ohio.


Clinton was an ethically challenged candidate and she isn't Biden.  Biden can win AZ, and more importantly the senate race.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2019, 01:24:23 PM »

Yeah, up 5 a year and a half out, Biden's got Arizona locked up. Just ask President Clinton about how easily she won Ohio.


Clinton was an ethically challenged candidate and she isn't Biden.  Biden can win AZ, and more importantly the senate race.

I didn't know Biden was running for Senate in Arizona. Please, tell me more, OC.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2019, 01:29:39 PM »

Wow, another great poll for Uncle Joe. It's early, but Arizona is probably easier to win than Florida.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2019, 02:18:27 PM »

It is still Lean R, but Biden IS strong and might get it, if Trump collapses.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2019, 07:42:01 PM »

Big Joe is going to win in a landslide.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2019, 09:24:09 PM »

These clowns had McSally up 7 a week before the election lol

So, Biden +18?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2019, 01:26:16 AM »

To be honest, I have trouble seeing who are the folks who don't vote for Kamala Harris but for Donald Trump, while they go with Joe Biden. Reluctant conservatives who dislike Trump but prefer over a "leftist"? She's not even that far left.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2019, 01:27:43 AM »

C+ Pollster on 538 in a GE poll 1 1/2 yrs out in a State with an extremely young and Latino electorate that is way under-polled.

Biden likely does better than other Dems in this poll because of name recog, Ethnicity, and age.

Not saying AZ isn't going to be in play in 2020 PRES, especially considering massive swings among Anglos in the Midterms and Special Election in the Phoenix 'Burbs, but I would be extremely cautious about this poll for many reasons.

Many reasons to be optimistic about AZ in 2020, but this poll wouldn't be something I would rely on as gospel.....
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2019, 02:33:56 AM »

To be honest, I have trouble seeing who are the folks who don't vote for Kamala Harris but for Donald Trump, while they go with Joe Biden. Reluctant conservatives who dislike Trump but prefer over a "leftist"? She's not even that far left.

White people.
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izixs
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« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2019, 02:48:23 AM »

To be honest, I have trouble seeing who are the folks who don't vote for Kamala Harris but for Donald Trump, while they go with Joe Biden. Reluctant conservatives who dislike Trump but prefer over a "leftist"? She's not even that far left.

White people.

We have a winner.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2019, 09:12:28 AM »

Well, it seems that with Biden as the Dem candidate, there could be potential for a very comfortable electoral victory over the Orange Clown.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2019, 06:56:19 PM »

Well, it seems that with Biden as the Dem candidate, there could be potential for a very comfortable electoral victory over the Orange Clown.

"Could" is the keyword. Let's not get ahead of ourselves this early. The right wing attack machine has barely started yet. Biden also needs to get through the primary as unscathed as possible if he gets nominated while keeping the party together and as motivated as possible to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot.
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AN63093
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« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2019, 12:28:19 PM »

No, the only way Biden can win this deep-red-since-1952-totally-not-as-competitive-as-WI/MI/PA state is by wearing boots, a tutu, a pink coat, and a fur stole and running moderate hero ads to win over those dissatisfied hardcore Republicans in Maricopa County. Arizona is going to settle for nothing less than that, it’s not like this is a Democratic-trending Trump +3 state where Democrats just won several statewide offices and the popular vote for House or anything.
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Person Man
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« Reply #20 on: May 14, 2019, 12:49:55 PM »

A democrat probably doesn't win without Arizona. They can but they won't. Just like Florida.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2019, 06:13:40 PM »

A democrat probably doesn't win without Arizona. They can but they won't. Just like Florida.

I don't know about that. Arizona would definitely be nice to have in the Democratic column and would signal that they won the election, but all that is really needed at a minimum to win are the big three in addition to all the Clinton states.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2019, 03:56:02 PM »

Tossup/Tilt D. Whoever wins Maricopa wins the state. I feel Biden would absolutely have the best chance.

Didn't you used to be a GOP hack? what's changed?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2019, 01:34:37 AM »

I think we have enough data from AZ in the '16 PRES, AZ-CD '08 SE, and AZ-SEN '18 to see the math here in a potential '20 race of Biden vs Trump regardless of polling organization.

Believe I did some precinct work a Year or Two back on this very subject, just to pull up one link....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288717.msg6145557#msg6145557

Now, in the event that DJT is the 'Pub nom in '20 (Which is most likely to be the case excepting legal issues, high crimes and misdemeanors, etc....), it appears difficult for Trump to be able carry places where he is already getting hit hard (Middle-Class & Upper Middle-Class Anglos, Latinos, and Asians within Maricopa County).

Despite the likely heavily Anglo biased nature of this poll and low representation of working-class Latino Voters (Much more Dem than Middle and Upper Income Latinos), it appears that Biden does have something going for him with older Anglos when it comes to an FTF vs Trump.

How much of this is nostalgia, and how much of it is "buyers remorse" combined with a dramatically changing electorate that is much Younger and increasingly Latino-American?

IDK about this crap poll early in the season, but name recognition is def a factor, and many folks will take the red meat for a generic "D" especially after all the crap they perceive as having gone down during the Trump Admin....

Just Sayin' ....
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