Change Research New Hampshire: Sanders leads Biden 30-26

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 864 likely voters, conducted May 3rd to May 5th. Change is from their previous poll conducted four months ago.

Sanders — 30% (+4%)
Biden — 26% (+2%)
Buttigieg — 12% (-)
Warren — 9% (-2%)
Harris — 8% (+4%)
O'Rourke — 3% (-6%)
Delaney — 2% (+2%)
Booker — 2% (-1%)
Yang — 2% (-)
Ryan — 1% (-)
Gabbard — 1% (-)
Klobuchar — 1% (-1%)
Moulton — 1% (-)
Gillibrand — 0% (-1%)
Abrams — 0% (-)
Hickenlooper — 0% (-1%)
Williamson — 0% (-)
Inslee — 0% (±0)
Swalwell — 0% (-)
Gravel — 0% (-)
Bennet — 0% (-)
Castro — 0% (±0)
Bullock — 0% (-1%)

https://docsend.com/view/rsit6pt

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I think Bernie will win New Hampshire, but by less than he did against Hillary in 2016. Iowa is going to be crucial, as always.

[Pericles]

It seems New Hampshire is significantly more pro-Sanders than the nation as a whole, as in 2016, if Biden's lead decreases from its current peak we could see another Sanders landslide in the Granite State.

[Politician]

So much for Biden winning 49 state-landslide, lol.

[Xing]

inb4 junk poll because Biden isn't leading by 17.

Anyway, Sanders would be absolutely finished if he couldn't at least carry New Hampshire, though he'll need to win it by more than 4. Not saying this pollster is the most reliable, either, but it's more recent than some of the other polls, so we'll see if Biden's lead does come back down to earth a bit.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Interesting that Warren went down given other recent polls.

[Sorenroy]

Interesting that Warren went down given other recent polls.

Don't miss the fact that their last poll was conducted four months ago. I thought about not including change at all, but it at least gives some reference to where this pollster had everyone at previously, even if that previously was fairly early on.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We're seeing some very mixed polling out of New Hampshire, but overall I think Sanders will narrowly win. It might not be enough for him to become the front-runner though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're seeing some very mixed polling out of New Hampshire, but overall I think Sanders will narrowly win. It might not be enough for him to become the front-runner though.

Should he win IA and NH, it can be enough

[Eraserhead]

Not bad. I'll take it at this point.

[User155815470020]

inb4 junk poll because Biden isn't leading by 17.

Anyway, Sanders would be absolutely finished if he couldn't at least carry New Hampshire, though he'll need to win it by more than 4. Not saying this pollster is the most reliable, either, but it's more recent than some of the other polls, so we'll see if Biden's lead does come back down to earth a bit.

Also, Delaney about to overtake O'Rourke and enter the Top 6. Where did that come from?

[HarrisonL]

Sanders probably will win New Hampshire again. It's also always interesting to see candidates like Hickenlooper, Gillibrand, and Inslee, people who have donors and funding but have no popular support.

[Gustaf]

Not super buying this poll (for example, Harris tying Warren in New Hampshire or Delaney in 7th Place) but I expect it would be Close between Biden and Sanders here right now.

It'll be interesting to see how Sanders' New Hampshire strength plays out for him. It could obviously be a huge positive to get a strong showing there early but if plays the expectations game badly it could also end up backfiring badly, say if he doesn't manage to win.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems realistic. As discussed elsewhere, New Hampshire will be an absolute must-win for Sanders. I expect him to gain here as other candidates drop.

[ProudModerate2]

Seems realistic. As discussed elsewhere, New Hampshire will be an absolute must-win for Sanders. I expect him to gain here as other candidates drop.

[Shadows]

Sanders has to win Iowa & NH & carry all that momentum to Nevada given Biden's huge lead otherwise this is over.

[Mr. Morden]

Just like the Monmouth poll, this is another New Hampshire poll in which Warren is the lead pick for “second choice”, despite being 4th on the list for first choice:

“Who would be your second choice if your preferred candidate is not running?”

Warren 19%
Biden 15%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 13%
Harris 13%
O’Rourke 8%
Gabbard 4%
Booker 4%
Yang 3%
Klobuchar 3%
everyone else at 1% or less

Warren’s also the top choice for which candidates are “smart” and “tough”, but way down the list on “likable”.  (Biden leads the likable category, followed by Sanders, and then Buttigieg.