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January 27, 2020, 05:06:44 pm
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  Going into Election Night 1976, what were the general predictions?
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Author Topic: Going into Election Night 1976, what were the general predictions?  (Read 738 times)
sg0508
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« on: May 07, 2019, 08:54:17 pm »

This race also seems to get glossed over in modern presidential election history.  Perhaps because it was in the middle of GOP domination at the Presidential level, or deteriorating economic conditions (stagflation), or that it was post-Watergate.

It's odd that it doesn't seem to get much attention given that it did end up tight after Jimmy Carter had a 62-29 lead following the DNC, and Ford chipped away throughout the summer, with the only blip being the debate error about Eastern Europe/Soviet control.

If I'm not mistaken, the final poll taken was the only one that actually had Ford ahead (although within the margin of error).  Carter won the popular vote by 1.7M votes and by 2 points.  He won the Electoral College with narrow wins in OH, WI, MS, TX and HI.

There was Youtube material up for a while from ABC and Carter dominated much of the east, with pretty much control of the Electoral College all night (Ford closing the gap after Carter got the last states to put him over).

Obviously, the coverage then isn't what it is now, but what was the general consensus heading into Election Day? Was Ford going to complete the comeback, or did the media seem to give Carter the edge?
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2019, 06:04:34 am »

I wasn't around back then, but I get the impression that the perception was similar to 2004. In that, I mean it was a close race but Bush had a small, but definite edge. Kerry appeared to be slightly surging at the end. I think Carter was in Bush's role and Ford in Kerry's.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2019, 12:06:45 pm »

Maybe a map like this:




Carter 273
Ford 265
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2019, 12:11:38 pm »

Given that Ford almost overcome 30 point deficit in summer, I'm sure he would have won if the campaign went on for another week. Too bad, he would have done a better job than Carter.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2019, 12:26:53 pm »

Given that Ford almost overcome 30 point deficit in summer, I'm sure he would have won if the campaign went on for another week. Too bad, he would have done a better job than Carter.

Not hard.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2019, 11:52:28 pm »

Given that Ford almost overcome 30 point deficit in summer, I'm sure he would have won if the campaign went on for another week. Too bad, he would have done a better job than Carter.

To be fair, 1976 was probably a poisoned chalice, & Carter was definitely dealt a bad hand: runaway inflation, soaring interest rates, fallout from the Arab oil embargo, the taking of hostages in Iran, etc.
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dw93
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« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2019, 07:05:06 pm »

Given that Ford almost overcome 30 point deficit in summer, I'm sure he would have won if the campaign went on for another week. Too bad, he would have done a better job than Carter.

To be fair, 1976 was probably a poisoned chalice, & Carter was definitely dealt a bad hand: runaway inflation, soaring interest rates, fallout from the Arab oil embargo, the taking of hostages in Iran, etc.

Yeah, 1980, 1932, and 1896 were all likely unwinnable for the incumbent. 

1976 would've been in this category of elections to if the Democrats nominated someone stronger than Carter. Ford not only had the fallout from the pardon, but also had a weak economy and high inflation.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2019, 06:55:12 pm »

Given that Ford almost overcome 30 point deficit in summer, I'm sure he would have won if the campaign went on for another week. Too bad, he would have done a better job than Carter.

To be fair, 1976 was probably a poisoned chalice, & Carter was definitely dealt a bad hand: runaway inflation, soaring interest rates, fallout from the Arab oil embargo, the taking of hostages in Iran, etc.

Then maybe Ford should have won. He would have lost in a landslide in 1980 to a Democrat, and we wouldn't have had Reagan.

Even better if Reagan had become president in 1976.
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