LA-JMC: Edwards leads, tons of undecideds

[Skye]

Question 2: If the election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you support ?
Edwards 38%
Abraham 23%
Rispone 7%
Undecided 32%

Question 3: If the runoff election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you support ?
Edwards 40%
Abraham 36%
Undecided 24%

Question 4: If the runoff election for Governor were held today, which candidate would you support ?
Edwards 41%
Rispone 28%
Undecided 31%

Trump approval at 54/37.

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/LA-Governor-Executive-Summary.pdf

[S019]

But muh-incumbency

Muh-elastic south

JBE will follow the path of Mary Landrieu, be competitive up until the jungle primary and then have nearly all the undecideds break against him during the runoff

56-44 Abraham over Edwards in Runoff (FLIP)

[Senator Incitatus]

Not as strong as I'd like.

edit: This isn't disastrous, but it probably ends any chance Edwards had of avoiding the run-off.

[Mr.Phips]

As an incumbent and the only Democrat in the race, I was really hoping that Edwards would be able to break 50% in the jungle primary and avoid a runoff.

[Gass3268]

The urban/suburban vs rural divide is continuing, even in Louisiana.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1126118895876812801

[LoneStarDem]

But muh-incumbency

Muh-elastic south

JBE will follow the path of Mary Landrieu, be competitive up until the jungle primary and then have nearly all the undecideds break against him during the runoff

56-44 Abraham over Edwards in Runoff (FLIP)

LA is NOT voting out a popular Governor.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ouch, not exactly a safe Dem hold as it's claimed to be. There's also no way St Tammany is tied, Vitter got over 60% there. If we're to believe this poll, JBE's floor is 45% while Abraham's is 42%. The undecideds beyond that decide the race.

[lfromnj]

Ouch, not exactly a safe Dem hold as it's claimed to be. There's also no way St Tammany is tied, Vitter got over 60% there. If we're to believe this poll, JBE's floor is 45% while Abraham's is 42%. The undecideds beyond that decide the race.

Eh its small sub samples but I wouldn't be completely shocked if JBE managed to hit 40% in St Tammany in a runoff.

[Gass3268]

Ouch, not exactly a safe Dem hold as it's claimed to be. There's also no way St Tammany is tied, Vitter got over 60% there. If we're to believe this poll, JBE's floor is 45% while Abraham's is 42%. The undecideds beyond that decide the race.

Eh its small sub samples but I wouldn't be completely shocked if JBE managed to hit 40% in St Tammany in a runoff.

Especially with the growing urban/suburban vs rural divide.

[LoneStarDem]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

[smoltchanov]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

Not so sure in present polarized world America. After all - Landrieu was personally popular and generally moderate Senator from famous political family, and all this didn't saved her. Governor races are more flexible now, then Senatorial one, but - by how much?

[We Live in Black and White]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

Not so sure in present polarized world America. After all - Landrieu was personally popular and generally moderate Senator from famous political family, and all this didn't saved her. Governor races are more flexible now, then Senatorial one, but - by how much?

Plenty enough for Massachusetts to reelect Baker by 33 points while also reelecting Warren by 24 points.

This Chicken Little crap really is unspeakably aggravating.

[S019]

But muh-incumbency

Muh-elastic south

JBE will follow the path of Mary Landrieu, be competitive up until the jungle primary and then have nearly all the undecideds break against him during the runoff

56-44 Abraham over Edwards in Runoff (FLIP)

LA is NOT voting out a popular Governor.

The South is quite polarized, Scott and DeSantis both won narrowly, McCrory underperformed Trump by only 1 percent. Also, while Senate races are more polarized than Governor races, everyone said this about Mary Landrieu, and as the time went on, it was clear she was in troublemaker Also David Vitter was a terrible candidate, and JBE was endorsed by several prominent Republicans. Plus, while Republican states are more open to electing Democratic Senators, Democratic states are more open to electing Republican governors, JBE is probably done and I expect him to lose in December. When, we actually have quality polling, we can make a more accurate assessment. Note his numbers are nowhere near, where Hogan's or Baker's, were, he may squeak by, like Steve Bullock, but I doubt it, he should lose.

[Frenchrepublican]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

Not so sure in present polarized world America. After all - Landrieu was personally popular and generally moderate Senator from famous political family, and all this didn't saved her. Governor races are more flexible now, then Senatorial one, but - by how much?

Plenty enough for Massachusetts to reelect Baker by 33 points while also reelecting Warren by 24 points.

This Chicken Little crap really is unspeakably aggravating.

Baker is one of the last liberal republican, in any other state he would be a democrat.

[LoneStarDem]

It's hilarious that things have to be catastrophically bad in red states for Democrats to win gubernatorial races, but if blue state voters don't like when a Democrat won't shake hands outside of Fenway Park in 10 degree weather they'll happily elect a Republican.

Yeah, these are horrible numbers for supposedly favored JBE. Looks like my prediction of a Republican sweep this year is coming into clear focus. What a shame.

You might want to include the possibility of Houston, TX electing the first GOP Mayor since 1979 this fall with either Buzbee or King.

I think Turner is finished.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY and LA will go Dem and MS will be a Lean D race, if it wasn't for the under 50 rule go to GOP state assembly

However, Trump conservatives should have swept all three races

[Frenchrepublican]

It's hilarious that things have to be catastrophically bad in red states for Democrats to win gubernatorial races, but if blue state voters don't like when a Democrat won't shake hands outside of Fenway Park in 10 degree weather they'll happily elect a Republican.

Yeah, these are horrible numbers for supposedly favored JBE. Looks like my prediction of a Republican sweep this year is coming into clear focus. What a shame.

You might want to include the possibility of Houston, TX electing the first GOP Mayor since 1979 this fall with either Buzbee or King.

I think Turner is finished.

Houston seems pretty democratic.
Why would Turner would be so vulnerable ?

[LoneStarDem]

It's hilarious that things have to be catastrophically bad in red states for Democrats to win gubernatorial races, but if blue state voters don't like when a Democrat won't shake hands outside of Fenway Park in 10 degree weather they'll happily elect a Republican.

Yeah, these are horrible numbers for supposedly favored JBE. Looks like my prediction of a Republican sweep this year is coming into clear focus. What a shame.

You might want to include the possibility of Houston, TX electing the first GOP Mayor since 1979 this fall with either Buzbee or King.

I think Turner is finished.

Houston seems pretty democratic.
Why would Turner would be so vulnerable ?

The HFD Firefighters Union is pissed off at him for trying to undermine the will of the voters, who overwhelmingly passed Proposition B last fall.

[ON Progressive]

These are some brutal numbers for JBE. I find it hard to see how he can get 50% if he's currently in the low 40s in a head-to-head.

[S019]

Mary Landrieu 2.0, anyone??

[S019]

Mary Landrieu 2.0, anyone??

I don't think people saw you write this the first three times, how about you write it some more.

Always necessary to belabor the point, given that most of these people think that JBE will win by double digits

[Xing]

Not great numbers for JBE, but we'll want to see more polls. He's not losing by double digits, though.

[smoltchanov]

I'm confident in JBE getting reelected by double digits. Louisianans aren't that DUMB getting rid of a popular Governor with a budget surplus.

Not so sure in present polarized world America. After all - Landrieu was personally popular and generally moderate Senator from famous political family, and all this didn't saved her. Governor races are more flexible now, then Senatorial one, but - by how much?

Plenty enough for Massachusetts to reelect Baker by 33 points while also reelecting Warren by 24 points.

This Chicken Little crap really is unspeakably aggravating.

As people correctly stated - Massachusetts is NOT in the South. South is more polarized (by race, party, and so on) now, then most other areas, and surely - then North-East, where people such as Baker are mostly elected. In many southern races you can take minority percentage of district population, add very little (say 5%), and, volia, you get a percentage the Democratic candidate will get next election, as whites began to vote 90+% Republican... Not so in other parts of US, but almost always true for Louisiana. If Republican will run boring (but - clean) conservative candidate (and Abraham seems to be exactly that) - they will have at least 50-50 chance... Simply because of "R" and "D" letters after candidate names AND because Louisiana is DEEP Southern state.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ok, these numbers are not too great for an incumbent. Still predicting JBE is going to win, but by narrower margin than in 2015. Luckily for him, Kennedy isn't running.

[Pericles]

Edwards has a majority of decided respondents, so using 38% to say Edwards won't be able to avoid a runoff is foolish since he would need only 37.5% of undecideds to win a majority. If undecideds break against him he could have some trouble but that's not guaranteed, he has to be the favorite.