Interesting map of US Presidential Elections since 1960

[One Term Floridian]

There have been 15 presidential elections between JFK's victory in 1960 and Trump's in 2016. Arranging state victories by party in a single electoral college map today would result in an overall GOP victory of 286-252, the same as in 2004. And even with the five Republican victories in a row this century, the Democrats still won WV more often than not since 1960. Definitely the one result that sticks out like a sore thumb here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wow Flip IA and WV and you get the 2000 Map

[RINO Tom]

I saw an "all-time" map one time that was interesting.  Seems like it would take too long to calculate right now, but if anyone else is willing ...

[AN63093]

I'm working on one now.  Pretty straightforward since 1856, before that I'm not sure yet how I'll classify the states.  I'll make a 1856 and later map first.

[S019]

I'm working on one now.  Pretty straightforward since 1856, before that I'm not sure yet how I'll classify the states.  I'll make a 1856 and later map first.

I would say Federalists and Whigs are Republicans

I would say Democratic-Republicans (Jeffersonian Republicans) and Antibellum Democrats (Jacksonian Democrats) are Democrats

Not sure about Know-Nothings

[RINO Tom]

I'm working on one now.  Pretty straightforward since 1856, before that I'm not sure yet how I'll classify the states.  I'll make a 1856 and later map first.

I would say Federalists and Whigs are Republicans

I would say Democratic-Republicans (Jeffersonian Republicans) and Antibellum Democrats (Jacksonian Democrats) are Democrats

Not sure about Know-Nothings

I think any third party should be classified as simply itself, but I'd wager the majority of Know-Nothings were Whigs and Republicans.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would just do Whigs/Republicans vs Democrats as many elections from 1800-1824 were between members of the Democratic-Republican Party .

[AN63093]

This is from 1856 on, for a total of 41 elections:

Some interesting tidbits:

VT wins for most R votes at 33.  Second place is a tie between KS and IN.  Both have a pretty good argument for "most Republican" state in the country, although I would argue that maybe KS gets the nod since it hasn't gone D since 1964, whereas IN went D in 2008.

MD is tied with AR for most D votes at 28.  MD is a good contender for the "most Democratic" state in the country since it has consistently voted D throughout history and is still a 60% D state to the present day.

Every state has voted for each party at least once, except DC (if we're counting it).  AK has, however, only voted D once (1964).  No state has only voted R once, but the closest is HI at 2.

NY has an argument for the most prominent "swing state" in history.  Until its current D streak began in 1988, NY never went more than 16 years without flipping parties.  Through most of its history, it would flip back and forth pretty regularly.  It has voted R 20 times, D 21 times.

Another state with even R/D votes is MA (R-21, D-20), but I would argue it was never really a swing state because it voted R in almost every single election until 1928, and then rarely ever since.  Another example of a state like this is RI (R-21, D-20, voted R straight until 1928 and then flipped).


When I have some time later, I'll work on pre-1856.

[RINO Tom]

Very cool, thank you!  Yeah, I think Kansas and Maryland are great choices for the (subjective) title of "heart and soul of the GOP/Dems."

[One Term Floridian]

First of all, a job well done to AN63093. And great idea on mapping all the results! I got started with these earlier today and finally have them done for the periods 1828-2016 and 1856-2016, when the Democratic and Republican parties as we know them today were organized. In mapping these overall results, I have used the atlas shades to highlight the number of times the state has been won by either party. It should be noted that I only counted results where the state voted for the national party, so no votes for Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond, Bull Moose TR et al have been counted here. Just the times the states have gone for the National Democratic and the National Republican parties. And certain southern states were not counted at all during the Civil War and Reconstruction of course. Also I used the Atlas 30% shading to highlight states that were close to "flipping" to the other party, meaning another 2 wins by that party would "flip" it to that party overall.

From 1828-2016: 267D-251R-20

For the first map, the Democrats clearly have an advantage of a 28 year head start on the Electoral College. The state of Illinois is a "pure toss-up" of 24 wins for each party, starting from Democrat Andrew Jackson's win here in 1828. Massachusetts and Minnesota are close to flipping to the Democrats, so another two straight wins by the Democrats means they have won the state(s) more often than not. Same goes for Rhode Island, but it would flip to the Republicans. In 2020, Illinois should flip to Democratic, Massachusetts becomes a toss-up and Rhode Island should solidify more as an overall Democratic state, absent some Trump tsunami. West Virginia should, of course, become a toss-up in 2020 after another big Trump win there. So the only state that's debatable is Minnesota. Will the Democrats continue their winning streak from 1976 and flip it overall in 2024 or will the Republicans win it at least once by then?

From 1856-2016: 275R-263D

For the second map, Democratic margins are reduced all over the South because of the 28 year head start they had against the Republicans down there. Also, Trump's home state is on the verge of flipping to a toss-up state here. AN63093 has already said everything I have to say about this map.

P.S. It's amazing how conceivable these maps could have been for 1976! Let's say.. Jimmy Carter/Scoop Jackson v. Gerald Ford/John Volpe?

[AN63093]

EDIT- didn't see the newest post from swamiG.  Apologies for the redundant posts...

Thanks Tom.  Here is an updated map through 1792:

Some notes:

-Whigs were counted as Republicans.  I originally stopped at 1856 since the farther back you went, the more dubious the connections to the modern party system get.  However, I probably feel most comfortable about this one, since you could argue the Whigs were essentially the direct predecessor to the GOP.

-For 1836, a vote for any of the Whig candidates counted as a Whig vote.

-National Republicans were counted as Republicans.

-For 1824, the Adams and Clay factions were counted as GOP and the rest as Dems.

-1820 was included, although it didn't need to be since it has no effect (it just gives everyone 1 D vote).

-Federalists were counted as Republicans.

-I did count 1792 (but not 1788).  The way I did it was, obviously everyone voted for Washington, but if your second vote (this was back when electors had 2 votes) was for Adams, it counted as a R, if it was for someone else, it counted as a D.



A couple additional comments:

-The only two states that flip by adding pre-1856 are IL and DE.  DE would become a D state around 1852 but before that was one of the most reliable anti-D states in the country... only MA had more non-D votes.  IL became a R state in 1860 but before that went 9 straight times for the Dems... Whigs did not do well there.

-Several states hung on, but there were some trends that made it close.  KY and TN had strong Whig streaks and outside of the Jackson years, TN wasn't really a Dem state.  PA was a pretty strong D state before 1860 and voted D 14 times, but just barely managed to stay R.

-MD is no longer the strongest D state in the country.. before the 1850s it was more of a swing state and the Whigs did well there.

-GA now wins for most D votes at 42.  Second place is VA with 39.  Both of these states have a couple of amazing streaks- VA would not vote R (or non D) from the founding of the country until 1872 (20 straight elections) and then wouldn't vote R again until 1928.. so VA only voted R twice in 34 elections).  GA, even more amazingly, first voted R in 1964... although it did vote for the Whigs three times so it wasn't quite as straight through as VA.  GA is barely beating VA since VA flipped first.. the GOP started winning it in the 1950s, whereas GA was winnable for the Dems up until 1992.  VA has a chance to catch up in the 2020s though, depending on when GA flips back D.  Perhaps it's fitting that VA has returned to being a "titanium D" state, its ancestral home.. and maybe GA not far behind (depending on how current trends play out).

-VT remains in the lead for R votes at 43 and second place is a tie between CT and NH at 36.  VT is the opposite of GA- it went on a long streak where it did not vote D between 1856 and 1964... however, before then it was not unknown for it to occasionally vote D (it did so 5 times before then)... MA, CT, and DE were the more reliable "anti D" states.

[One Term Floridian]

Finally got around to incorporating atlas shading to denote the number of times the states have gone for the winning party since 1960.

[One Term Floridian]

Interesting.  We seem to be living in historically unusual times.  I wonder how long the North (R) vs. South (D) alignment will continue to dominate these maps?  MA, RI, CA and IL will very likely flip over the next 20 years, and I presume MO/TN/SC will as well.  How many more R wins are needed to flip Texas?  If it's more than 3, I think it's a true toss up on this map come 2060.     

Republicans have to win another 14 times on the top map and another 12 times to flip TX. This alignment is going to stay with us for a long time lol

The first set of states you mentioned should come around very soon but there's no way SC flips in our lifetime

[One Term Floridian]

Interesting.  We seem to be living in historically unusual times.  I wonder how long the North (R) vs. South (D) alignment will continue to dominate these maps?  MA, RI, CA and IL will very likely flip over the next 20 years, and I presume MO/TN/SC will as well.  How many more R wins are needed to flip Texas?  If it's more than 3, I think it's a true toss up on this map come 2060.    

Republicans have to win another 14 times on the top map and another 12 times to flip TX. This alignment is going to stay with us for a long time lol

The first set of states you mentioned should come around very soon but there's no way SC flips in our lifetime

Also interesting is will Democrats ever flip MN?

If Democrats win MN in both 2020 and 2024, they will flip it. Fun fact: FDR was the first Democrat to win the state in 1932. From 1860 to 1928, it voted Republican with the exception of TR when he ran as a Bull Moose in 1912. In fact, 1860 to 1908 is the longest one-party streak MN has held. For Democrats to beat this, they would need to carry the state up to the 2028 election.

[Mr. Smith]

This is the relative margin compared to the national vote.

[One Term Floridian]

This is the relative margin compared to the national vote.

Wait I don't understand, what is this supposed to represent again?

[Mr. Smith]

This is the relative margin compared to the national vote.

Wait I don't understand, what is this supposed to represent again?

Margins relative to all the popular vote totals. The more solid the color, than longer the state has been more R or D than the popular vote.

For example, despite the rather even amount of flips Ohio has done, it has been consistently more Republican at almost every turn.

Even though Vermont was pretty all R until 1992, it consistently voted left of the nation with the rise of Reagan.

[One Term Floridian]

This is the relative margin compared to the national vote.

Wait I don't understand, what is this supposed to represent again?

Margins relative to all the popular vote totals. The more solid the color, than longer the state has been more R or D than the popular vote.

For example, despite the rather even amount of flips Ohio has done, it has been consistently more Republican at almost every turn.

Even though Vermont was pretty all R until 1992, it consistently voted left of the nation with the rise of Reagan.

Ah very cool! Surprised by MO and NJ

[S019]

This is the relative margin compared to the national vote.

Wait I don't understand, what is this supposed to represent again?

Margins relative to all the popular vote totals. The more solid the color, than longer the state has been more R or D than the popular vote.

For example, despite the rather even amount of flips Ohio has done, it has been consistently more Republican at almost every turn.

Even though Vermont was pretty all R until 1992, it consistently voted left of the nation with the rise of Reagan.

Ah very cool! Surprised by MO and NJ

MO has long been swing/bellwether, that changed in the 2000's, also NJ was R, until 1992, and by 1996, it swung hard towards the Democrats

[Vosem]

There have been 15 presidential elections between JFK's victory in 1960 and Trump's in 2016. Arranging state victories by party in a single electoral college map today would result in an overall GOP victory of 286-252, the same as in 2004. And even with the five Republican victories in a row this century, the Democrats still won WV more often than not since 1960. Definitely the one result that sticks out like a sore thumb here.

A since-1960 county map would be very cool.

[One Term Floridian]

There have been 15 presidential elections between JFK's victory in 1960 and Trump's in 2016. Arranging state victories by party in a single electoral college map today would result in an overall GOP victory of 286-252, the same as in 2004. And even with the five Republican victories in a row this century, the Democrats still won WV more often than not since 1960. Definitely the one result that sticks out like a sore thumb here.

A since-1960 county map would be very cool.

Waaaaaaay outta my pay grade lol

[R.P. McM]

Interesting.  We seem to be living in historically unusual times.  I wonder how long the North (R) vs. South (D) alignment will continue to dominate these maps?  MA, RI, CA and IL will very likely flip over the next 20 years, and I presume MO/TN/SC will as well.  How many more R wins are needed to flip Texas?  If it's more than 3, I think it's a true toss up on this map come 2060.    

Republicans have to win another 14 times on the top map and another 12 times to flip TX. This alignment is going to stay with us for a long time lol

The first set of states you mentioned should come around very soon but there's no way SC flips in our lifetime

Also interesting is will Democrats ever flip MN?

If Democrats win MN in both 2020 and 2024, they will flip it. Fun fact: FDR was the first Democrat to win the state in 1932. From 1860 to 1928, it voted Republican with the exception of TR when he ran as a Bull Moose in 1912. In fact, 1860 to 1908 is the longest one-party streak MN has held. For Democrats to beat this, they would need to carry the state up to the 2028 election.

Crazy how the state turned on a dime, eh? Nothing but Republican victories (and TR) until 1932, and then Democrats win 19 of the subsequent 22 elections.

[One Term Floridian]

Interesting.  We seem to be living in historically unusual times.  I wonder how long the North (R) vs. South (D) alignment will continue to dominate these maps?  MA, RI, CA and IL will very likely flip over the next 20 years, and I presume MO/TN/SC will as well.  How many more R wins are needed to flip Texas?  If it's more than 3, I think it's a true toss up on this map come 2060.    

Republicans have to win another 14 times on the top map and another 12 times to flip TX. This alignment is going to stay with us for a long time lol

The first set of states you mentioned should come around very soon but there's no way SC flips in our lifetime

Also interesting is will Democrats ever flip MN?

If Democrats win MN in both 2020 and 2024, they will flip it. Fun fact: FDR was the first Democrat to win the state in 1932. From 1860 to 1928, it voted Republican with the exception of TR when he ran as a Bull Moose in 1912. In fact, 1860 to 1908 is the longest one-party streak MN has held. For Democrats to beat this, they would need to carry the state up to the 2028 election.

Crazy how the state turned on a dime, eh? Nothing but Republican victories (and TR) until 1932, and then Democrats win 19 of the subsequent 22 elections.

Flip the parties and MN starts sounding a lot like a southern state ha

[AN63093]

Interesting.  We seem to be living in historically unusual times.  I wonder how long the North (R) vs. South (D) alignment will continue to dominate these maps?  MA, RI, CA and IL will very likely flip over the next 20 years, and I presume MO/TN/SC will as well.  How many more R wins are needed to flip Texas?  If it's more than 3, I think it's a true toss up on this map come 2060.    

The alignment will continue to dominate these maps for years to come, and the more I think about it, perhaps forever.  Take VA for example; it was a D state for most of history and has returned to being so.  So it's a R state only for the second half of the 20th century.. a map incorporating all of US history may never show it as a R state since it has returned to being D.

There are other signs of the map "reverting to form", so to speak.  GA is an example.  TX perhaps... as swami pointed out, the GOP needs to win it 14 more times, and demographics could have it flipping back to the Dems way before that ever happens.

It is also possible that New England reverts to form as well- ME is on the verge of flipping back, and if it does, it'll stay R on the "all-time" map.  While MA and RI are close to flipping on the "all-time" map, it may end up only being for a short time if they flip back R at some point in the next couple decades.  MA I'm not so sure about, but there's a point to be made that the trends we are seeing in ME are not necessarily localized just to that state- see, for example, RI's >10% R trend in '16.  Demographic trends are generally favorable for the GOP over the long term in this area of the country, so we'll just have to see.

The same goes for MN, which is close to flipping D on the all-time map, but just in time, the state appears to be trending R once again and is now seriously discussed as a possible counter to GA flipping.  So we may reverting back to form there too.

Some things may never revert to form though- such as CA, which is only 5 elections away from flipping on the all-time map, and I would suspect will remain D for the foreseeable future.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Interesting.  We seem to be living in historically unusual times.  I wonder how long the North (R) vs. South (D) alignment will continue to dominate these maps?  MA, RI, CA and IL will very likely flip over the next 20 years, and I presume MO/TN/SC will as well.  How many more R wins are needed to flip Texas?  If it's more than 3, I think it's a true toss up on this map come 2060.    

Republicans have to win another 14 times on the top map and another 12 times to flip TX. This alignment is going to stay with us for a long time lol

The first set of states you mentioned should come around very soon but there's no way SC flips in our lifetime

Also interesting is will Democrats ever flip MN?

If Democrats win MN in both 2020 and 2024, they will flip it. Fun fact: FDR was the first Democrat to win the state in 1932. From 1860 to 1928, it voted Republican with the exception of TR when he ran as a Bull Moose in 1912. In fact, 1860 to 1908 is the longest one-party streak MN has held. For Democrats to beat this, they would need to carry the state up to the 2028 election.

Crazy how the state turned on a dime, eh? Nothing but Republican victories (and TR) until 1932, and then Democrats win 19 of the subsequent 22 elections.

Given that the GOP won 14/18 Presidential Elections from 1860-1928 with them utterly dominating the 2nd half of that run its not surprising many states went from Solid GOP to Solid Dem on a dime after 1932 given that Democrats have won the majority of Presidential Elections since then.