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  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Nixon led George Wallace in the South by 9 points in a hypothetical 1972 poll
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Author Topic: Nixon led George Wallace in the South by 9 points in a hypothetical 1972 poll  (Read 1978 times)
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KYWildman
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« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2019, 02:13:56 am »

KYWildman, you really need to perform more research. The South was trending away from Democrats well before 1964. More well off voters were now able to vote Republican, mainly because of economic and racial reasons. (see the growing suburbs of the East Southern Coast) Now many of these voters went back to the Democrats in 1964, and deep southern Dixiecrats vice versa, but in 1968 they went back to Republicans, as they could afford to. The Dixiecrats, being more fiscally populist, went to George Wallace, as they could not afford to vote Republican. Many outer southerners such as those in WV still voted Democratic as there were less racial tensions in those areas plus because of their economic status.

No, you really need to read my posts in their entirety and comprehend them. I explicitly noted the trend in the South away from the Dems going back since 1944, but it only actually broke for the GOP in 1964. Some of those Deep South states had NEVER voted for a REPUBLICAN before, even if they had broken for a racist Dixiecrat third party candidate against Truman or JFK because they supported Civil Rights. And the absolutely massive swing even from just 1960 to 1964 alone in some of these states cannot be overstated, regardless of any trends. The plain and obvious conclusion is that "racial reasons" was by far the largest contributing factor, and that is what my argument was. I was refuting RINO Tom's nonsensical mental gymnastics trying to explain how ackshually Barry Goldwater and the GOP loved black people and the Democrats have been the real racists all along. I was never denying that the South had been increasingly trending away from the Democrats in direct correlation with the Democrats' trend towards Civil Rights -- that was my entire point!
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #26 on: July 09, 2019, 03:11:18 am »

Its a good thing I found this thread, because some have been using the wrong term to apply to the wrong group of people.

To be specific, Dixiecrat in reference to Wallace. The original Dixiecrat, Strom Thurmond, was much more conservative and his "best areas" were those in the low countries, suburbs and cities while the upcountry whites retained the most loyalty to Truman. It is these poorer voters that as one person put it couldn't afford to not vote Democratic. By 1968, the former category, The people who had supported the actual Dixiecrats, formed the base for Richard Nixon in the South along with more traditional GOP Mountain counties and of course northern transplants.

The Dixiecrat, referring to the more upscale black belt, urban, low country whites were indeed the first to switch to the Republicans, beginning in 1952.

Now obviously, Thurmond did well in a lot of upcountry areas too and Wallace won a lot of suburbs in the Deep South, but the point refers more to areas of strongest concentration more so than anything else.



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538Electoral
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« Reply #27 on: July 12, 2019, 07:45:58 pm »

The election likely would've been closer in that case but Nixon still wins by a big margin.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #28 on: July 12, 2019, 10:05:52 pm »

Why didn’t Wallace win South Carolina in 1968?
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RoboWop
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« Reply #29 on: July 12, 2019, 10:19:10 pm »

By the way, if you find old historical polls like this, please take a second to add them to the relevant wiki articles on their respective elections. Historic polling is essential to our understanding of elections, and putting the data on Wikipedia increases the chance it will be widely available and disseminated.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #30 on: July 13, 2019, 07:59:50 am »

Its a good thing I found this thread, because some have been using the wrong term to apply to the wrong group of people.

To be specific, Dixiecrat in reference to Wallace. The original Dixiecrat, Strom Thurmond, was much more conservative and his "best areas" were those in the low countries, suburbs and cities while the upcountry whites retained the most loyalty to Truman. It is these poorer voters that as one person put it couldn't afford to not vote Democratic. By 1968, the former category, The people who had supported the actual Dixiecrats, formed the base for Richard Nixon in the South along with more traditional GOP Mountain counties and of course northern transplants.

The Dixiecrat, referring to the more upscale black belt, urban, low country whites were indeed the first to switch to the Republicans, beginning in 1952.

Now obviously, Thurmond did well in a lot of upcountry areas too and Wallace won a lot of suburbs in the Deep South, but the point refers more to areas of strongest concentration more so than anything else.
What do you mean by “upcountry” and “low countries”?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #31 on: July 13, 2019, 09:52:37 am »

KYWildman, you really need to perform more research. The South was trending away from Democrats well before 1964. More well off voters were now able to vote Republican, mainly because of economic and racial reasons. (see the growing suburbs of the East Southern Coast) Now many of these voters went back to the Democrats in 1964, and deep southern Dixiecrats vice versa, but in 1968 they went back to Republicans, as they could afford to. The Dixiecrats, being more fiscally populist, went to George Wallace, as they could not afford to vote Republican. Many outer southerners such as those in WV still voted Democratic as there were less racial tensions in those areas plus because of their economic status.

No, you really need to read my posts in their entirety and comprehend them. I explicitly noted the trend in the South away from the Dems going back since 1944, but it only actually broke for the GOP in 1964. Some of those Deep South states had NEVER voted for a REPUBLICAN before, even if they had broken for a racist Dixiecrat third party candidate against Truman or JFK because they supported Civil Rights. And the absolutely massive swing even from just 1960 to 1964 alone in some of these states cannot be overstated, regardless of any trends. The plain and obvious conclusion is that "racial reasons" was by far the largest contributing factor, and that is what my argument was. I was refuting RINO Tom's nonsensical mental gymnastics trying to explain how ackshually Barry Goldwater and the GOP loved black people and the Democrats have been the real racists all along. I was never denying that the South had been increasingly trending away from the Democrats in direct correlation with the Democrats' trend towards Civil Rights -- that was my entire point!

How bitter and obsessed do you have to be to put the bolded words in my mouth?  in’ weirdo, lol.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #32 on: July 13, 2019, 09:59:32 am »

I’d love a 1928-1948-1968 comparison.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #33 on: July 13, 2019, 10:09:58 am »

Why didn’t Wallace win South Carolina in 1968?

Because of the suburbs going for Nixon.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #34 on: July 13, 2019, 10:43:54 am »

Were there more suburbs in SC than in the Wallace states or did the SC suburbs go for Nixon more than the Wallace state suburbs did? If the latter, why?
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #35 on: July 13, 2019, 11:26:43 am »

Were there more suburbs in SC than in the Wallace states or did the SC suburbs go for Nixon more than the Wallace state suburbs did? If the latter, why?

There weren't really more suburbs in South Carolina than in the states Wallace won, but Wallace lost them by noticeably more than he did in other Southern states. he also didn't overwhelmingly win the rural areas like he did in the rest of the Deep South, only cracking 50% in two counties I believe. there was also more vote splitting between Wallace and Humphrey, with Humphrey doing better at the county level than in the rest of the Deep South, almost entirely because of black support and vote splitting of course.
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