NJ-GOV 2021 megathread
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: May 09, 2019, 07:24:13 PM »
« edited: May 09, 2019, 11:22:21 PM by bronz4141 »

Better start two years before, the South Jersey Democratic boss George Norcross is coming after Gov. Murphy. Could the moribund NJ GOP gain from this?

https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/05/powerful-democrat-to-murphy-you-should-expect-a-democratic-primary-challenge-in-2021.html
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2019, 08:59:34 AM »

Moderate South Jersey Democrat State Senate President Stephen Sweeney might run against Murphy in 2021. Sweeney is called a DINO, too conservative, Christiecrat, etc.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2019, 09:14:26 AM »

Extremely safe D so long as Trump is President; Likely D if he loses.

Murphy could get a primary challenge, but it won't mean anything. He has the support of the North Jersey bosses locked up.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2019, 09:47:26 AM »

Murphy isn't scared of any stupid primary challenge.
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Continential
The Op
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2019, 08:11:52 AM »

New Jersey can be lean R is Phil Murphy is the Democratic nominee and the Republicans have a strong nominee. Corizine was so bad that he lost reelection in 2009 to Chris Christie.
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2019, 11:26:50 PM »

New Jersey can be lean R is Phil Murphy is the Democratic nominee and the Republicans have a strong nominee. Corizine was so bad that he lost reelection in 2009 to Chris Christie.
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

That's not supposed to be funny. Look what happened in 2009.

10 days is a long time in politics, let alone 10 YEARS! Especially since NJ is even more Democratic now than it was 10 years ago.
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HarrisonL
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« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2019, 07:00:40 AM »

New Jersey can be lean R is Phil Murphy is the Democratic nominee and the Republicans have a strong nominee. Corizine was so bad that he lost reelection in 2009 to Chris Christie.

Did you just say, I-
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HarrisonL
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2019, 07:02:25 AM »

The New Jersey Suburbs have just become more Democratic since 2009, look at Somerset County, a Republican won't win the race anytime soon. Lean R is ridiculous.
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S019
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« Reply #8 on: May 14, 2019, 07:02:54 AM »

For Phil Murphy to even have a chance at losing there needs to be an unpopular Democratic President, who causes a recession

Even then, it would be Very Likely/Safe D
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2019, 11:18:07 AM »

New Jersey can be lean R is Phil Murphy is the Democratic nominee and the Republicans have a strong nominee. Corizine was so bad that he lost reelection in 2009 to Chris Christie.
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

That's not supposed to be funny. Look what happened in 2009.

Indiana is a lean D state in 2020. Look what happened in 2008.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: May 14, 2019, 02:07:12 PM »

Lean R is possible if a Democrat is president but if Orange Man is president its Safe D.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2019, 02:29:31 PM »

I wonder how Hirsh Singh would do. A big problem for the NJGOP in places like Somerset is the growing South Asian population and outreach is necessary. Their problems won't end with Trump.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #12 on: May 14, 2019, 06:52:45 PM »

New Jersey can be lean R is Phil Murphy is the Democratic nominee and the Republicans have a strong nominee. Corizine was so bad that he lost reelection in 2009 to Chris Christie.
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

That's not supposed to be funny. Look what happened in 2009.

Indiana is a lean D state in 2020. Look what happened in 2008.

What happened in 2008?

Obama won Indiana in 2008. My point is how much things can change in 12 years.
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Ilhan Apologist
Glowfish
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« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2019, 08:25:07 AM »

New Jersey can be lean R is Phil Murphy is the Democratic nominee and the Republicans have a strong nominee. Corizine was so bad that he lost reelection in 2009 to Chris Christie.
LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

That's not supposed to be funny. Look what happened in 2009.

Indiana is a lean D state in 2020. Look what happened in 2008.

What happened in 2008?

Obama won Indiana in 2008. My point is how much things can change in 12 years.

Obama won by a landslide. Some of the states he won are solid red states now. New Jersey has always been a solid blue state since around 2000. Chris Christie won that state even though it was solidly blue even at the time he won it.

Indiana has always been a solid red state...
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2019, 05:31:35 PM »

It wasn't that long a ago. Republicans can win by landslides in solid blue states. A Republican definitely has a chance in New Jersey in 2021 as long as they distance themselves from Trump. Many Democrats won 2018 gubernatorial elections simply because of Trump derangement syndrome.



I doubt we'll be seeing Christie running for statewide  office anytime soon.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2019, 06:53:07 PM »

If Norcross were to get some South Jersey moderate Democrat to run against Murphy in the primary, things could be interesting but I don't see a path to victory. And I think Murphy is only vulnerable if there is both a Democratic President and a declining economy.

Murphy is by no means a talented politician but I think he will manage to get a second term
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bronz4141
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« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2020, 03:52:38 PM »

Jack Ciattarelli, a suburban Somerset Republican, announced in January before COVID-19 that he was running again in 2021

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2020/01/21/nj-governor-race-gop-challenger-jack-ciattarelli-against-phil-murphy/4530919002/
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2020, 07:53:27 PM »


And he was the first politician from either side of the aisle to openly attack Gov. Murphy for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic:

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-becomes-first-republican-to-criticize-murphy-handling-of-covid-19-crisis/

Thinking of himself & his future at a time like this. Real classy. He doesn't deserve to be elected dogcatcher.
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S019
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« Reply #18 on: May 19, 2020, 07:59:49 PM »

I think Murphy is more vulnerable in a primary than re-election. This stays at Likely D.
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Mr. Matt
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« Reply #19 on: May 19, 2020, 11:00:41 PM »

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.
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S019
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« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2020, 11:04:15 PM »

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2020, 10:18:43 AM »

I think Murphy wins again, Ciattarelli would be a good congressman in 2022.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #22 on: May 20, 2020, 10:46:32 AM »

Safe D if Trump is still President.

Lean D if Biden wins in 2020, however. The right Republican (Thomas Kean for example) can beat Murphy if Biden is unpopular.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2020, 04:21:05 PM »

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.
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Suburbia
bronz4141
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« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2020, 05:28:09 PM »

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.
Do you see Ciattarelli winning any position statewide down the line if he does not win in 2021?
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