NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[kwabbit]

I don't see a path for victory for Ciatarelli, given what's outstanding, but this was much, much more exciting than I expected. It does disappoint for Jack to come so close without winning. Hope was raised and dashed.

[DaleCooper]

Murphy did all the supposedly super popular progressive stuff (legalized marijuana, raised taxes on the rich, $15 minimum wage, etc.) and it doesn't seem to have helped at all. Voters do not vote on policy; they vote on vibes. Seems bad for the long-term viability of democracy, IMO.

This has, of course, always been the case.

And it leaves Democrats with a problem which is at once simple and all too difficult to solve: their vibes are simply atrocious at the moment.

Those bickering over who’s progressive or moderate enough need to hear this. People vote based on feelings. The Democratic Party needs new blood, and to give a different impression to voters; policy and ideology are secondary to voters.

This is why Bernie is better electorally than AOC. AOC seems like a whiny socially far-leftist whereas Bernie seems like an old angry dude who cares about people and wants to shake up the system.

This is true, but even he made a huge mistake in 2020 by doubling down on all his most extreme positions. The Bernie of 2020 was not the Bernie of 2016 and I think it's largely because almost all factions of the left today seem to care far more about voicing the right position rather than actually getting something done. Who cares if you call it "Medicare for All"? Why do you have to voice support for the eventual abolition of private insurance? It's not like it's going to happen and it's not like it's popular, so why support it? The answer is because adherence to the orthodoxy is more important than real world action. That's why you have all these red avatars insisting that it's racist to suggest the Democratic Party condemn CRT, even though they also claim CRT doesn't exist in any of the schools to begin with.

[emailking]

Murphy's up a few hundred votes now.

[GoTfan]

Ciatarelli leading now

[jamestroll]

its not 2020 election anymore. People wont vote lock step dem or gop.

This is more embarrassing than Virignia.

[Shadows]

NJ has had a GOP Gov & so has NH or even freaking Vermont or Mass where Biden beats Trump by a huge margin. New England does give chance to so-called moderate GOP candidates especially in Gov races.

If Murphy retains & breaks the 1 term thing, it will be a good achievement (not great because of low margin & close race) considering how bad Biden's approvals are. He probably should have won by a bigger margin but I can see Biden losing decisively in both 2022 Mid-terms & 2024 (to even Trump) given how mediocre his management skills are.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It's time for the GOP to just completely ignore polling. It's not the first time inflated Democratic margins in polls have dissuaded the RNC from heavily investing in a race that turned out to be very winnable after all, look at WV-Sen & OH-Sen 2018.

[Orwell]

Murphy survives by a hair

[MATTROSE94]

Murphy survives by a hair

Do you think that Phil Murphy is going to reimplement a statewide lockdown if he is re-elected? That idea seems to be in play a bit now.

[GoTfan]

Murphy survives by a hair

Where are you getting this?

[Orwell]

Murphy survives by a hair

Where are you getting this?

Like it seems it’s the general consensus he’ll survive by a hair. There just aren’t enough votes for Jack to comeback.

[GoTfan]

Murphy survives by a hair

Where are you getting this?

Like it seems it’s the general consensus he’ll survive by a hair. There just aren’t enough votes for Jack to comeback.

Looking at the WaPo website, it seems the votes still to come in are from largely Democratic areas. That right?

[Lambsbread]

Murphy survives by a hair

Where are you getting this?

Like it seems it’s the general consensus he’ll survive by a hair. There just aren’t enough votes for Jack to comeback.

Looking at the WaPo website, it seems the votes still to come in are from largely Democratic areas. That right?

Correct. IIRC Monmouth County is the only Republican area with outstanding votes. Everything else is Dem territory.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy survives by a hair

Where are you getting this?

Like it seems it’s the general consensus he’ll survive by a hair. There just aren’t enough votes for Jack to comeback.

Looking at the WaPo website, it seems the votes still to come in are from largely Democratic areas. That right?

Yes, nearly all Republican areas are done. There's also still the question about VBMs in different areas.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/OneJerseySchorr/status/1455856169247989763

a mess

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455858366371217411

[Orwell]

Both Sweeney and Murphy look like they'll survive unless I'm missing something

[wbrocks67]

Both Sweeney and Murphy look like they'll survive unless I'm missing something

and the fact that both are likely to scrape by is just... something.

i mean Murphy will still be the first Dem re-elected in a long time, so there were headwinds that I think a lot of us didn't even realize, locally in NJ, even aside from the national stuff

NJ'ians have not liked re-electing incumbent Dems lol

[GoTfan]

Murphy survives by a hair

Where are you getting this?

Like it seems it’s the general consensus he’ll survive by a hair. There just aren’t enough votes for Jack to comeback.

Looking at the WaPo website, it seems the votes still to come in are from largely Democratic areas. That right?

Yes, nearly all Republican areas are done. There's also still the question about VBMs in different areas.

Are the VBMs a worry or are they expected to favour Murphy?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We can put to bed now wbrooks that VBM can overwhelming an R wave it didn't last night and it was an R wave at end of 2o29 when we didn't win the Election we were supposed to win McCauliff still Lost and VBM overwhelmed the Rs

[smoltchanov]

Both Sweeney and Murphy look like they'll survive unless I'm missing something

and the fact that both are likely to scrape by is just... something.

i mean Murphy will still be the first Dem re-elected in a long time, so there were headwinds that I think a lot of us didn't even realize, locally in NJ, even aside from the national stuff

NJ'ians have not liked re-electing incumbent Dems lol

Yeah, Murphy will, probably, win, but such win in such state as New Jersey is nothing to brag about. Even extremely corrupt Menendez won by much bigger margin...

[Ferguson97]

Murphy survives by a hair

Do you think that Phil Murphy is going to reimplement a statewide lockdown if he is re-elected? That idea seems to be in play a bit now.

No it doesn’t. Why would he do that lol

[Xing]

Murphy’s going to win this, but wow, absolutely pathetic margin. And I know that Republicans did even better in 2009, but considering that partisanship is much stronger now, this is serious trouble for Democrats, and if they don’t get their act together, we could see a lot of gubernatorial races flip, and not just in swing states.

[LabourJersey]

Murphy will win by 11 or 12.

Well, I was completely wrong. Admittedly I didn't pay attention to this race anywhere near as closely as VA, but this still feels like a shock

[Cassandra]

Are NJ republicans likely to do the "stolen election" song and dance here, do we think?

[Ferguson97]

At the very least some polls showed Youngkin ahead… absolutely no NJ polls showed a race this close. How did they drop the ball so badly with polling this race?