NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It looks like Lakewood played a major role in Murphy eking it out. He provided vital support for Orthodox Jews in NJ against bigoted municipalities like Mahwah, and high-profile Rabbis endorsed him and flipped the district from heavily Trump to overwhelmingly Murphy. Without that bloc, the remaining blue areas might not have been enough.

Do you know the results in Lakewood?

I just looked it up, and it looks like Ciatarelli still won the district, my mistake - but by a much, much smaller margin than Trump did, and with much lower turnout. It seems like a lot of the district didn't want to vote for Murphy, but with the Rabbis endorsing him they just stayed home. That was a huge vote cache that Ciatarelli didn't get because of Murphy's support for the community.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455908762242461700

[CookieDamage]

The way elections are conducted in america is an embarrassment, and it 100% is due to our infrastructure not being able to handle early mail voting in a timely fashion.

No other country of similar wealth has issues like this

One particular party is to blame, a party that abuses a system that was NEVER meant for anyone but the sick, the elderly, the disabled, and other exceptions

21 year old college students in great physical shape that can spend hours making tik tok videos can find the time to get to a poll station on Election Day

How is letting people vote in a more convenient way "abusing the system"

Like, there is no rational objection here.

It doesn't matter if someone is able-bodied, unemployed, and lives across the street from their voting precinct - they should be allowed to vote by mail if they want. That's their prerogative.

Exactly, the issue is that the state ballot counting apparatus is horrendous. That needs to be fixed, not limiting the franchise.

[Big Abraham]

Ciattarelli lost Somerset, lost Bergen, lost Passaic, lost Burlington. Those were all counties he was leading in late last night. The main problem is NJ doesn't really make a distinction between absentee and same-day ballots when they release the numbers. But since it's been determined nearly all the remaining vote is absentee from Dem areas then there's absolutely no hope.

This will probably still be the closest gubernatorial race in the state since... 1997? So, still not a great look for the governing party.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Murphy’s lead is now up to 25K.

[Alben Barkley]

His campaign was actually worse than McAuliffe's, if you ask me.

Probably something to this considering Murphy actually fell farther from Biden 2020 than McAuliffe. About a 16 point rightward shift in NJ vs. a 12 point rightward shift in VA. Obviously both are horrendous, but Murphy seems to have been (barely) saved solely by the fact that NJ is a bit more Democratic than VA still.

[wbrocks67]

His campaign was actually worse than McAuliffe's, if you ask me.

Probably something to this considering Murphy actually fell farther from Biden 2020 than McAuliffe. About a 16 point rightward shift in NJ vs. a 12 point rightward shift in VA. Obviously both are horrendous, but Murphy seems to have been (barely) saved solely by the fact that NJ is a bit more Democratic than VA still.

Tbh, it doesn't look like Murphy really campaigned? Like I think they kind of wrote it off as if it was a sure-fire win, which I guess I don't blame them.

However, yeah, the headwinds for this particular race were not great for Murphy - he won by 14 in 2017, but that was with Trump as president, Christie approvals in the dumps (Guadagno attached to it). Meanwhile, Biden approvals low right now, nothing getting done, no Dem GOV has been re-elected in 40 years, Ciattarrelli actually spent a lot of $$$ on this race (I think their spending was actually even), and not to mention - didn't Rs do really good in the 2019 local races too?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455908762242461700


Ugh

[Progressive Pessimist]

His campaign was actually worse than McAuliffe's, if you ask me.

Probably something to this considering Murphy actually fell farther from Biden 2020 than McAuliffe. About a 16 point rightward shift in NJ vs. a 12 point rightward shift in VA. Obviously both are horrendous, but Murphy seems to have been (barely) saved solely by the fact that NJ is a bit more Democratic than VA still.

Tbh, it doesn't look like Murphy really campaigned? Like I think they kind of wrote it off as if it was a sure-fire win, which I guess I don't blame them.

However, yeah, the headwinds for this particular race were not great for Murphy - he won by 14 in 2017, but that was with Trump as president, Christie approvals in the dumps (Guadagno attached to it). Meanwhile, Biden approvals low right now, nothing getting done, no Dem GOV has been re-elected in 40 years, Ciattarrelli actually spent a lot of $$$ on this race (I think their spending was actually even), and not to mention - didn't Rs do really good in the 2019 local races too?

I addressed some of this in a lengthy post on the last page. Yes to everything in a nutshell though.

[wbrocks67]

With the VBM added in, Mercer suddenly looks pretty close to 2017.

Mercer 2017: Murphy +32
Mercer 2021: Murphy +28

The dip from 2017 here was way less severe, so still curious where VBM is out elsewhere in the state, and if some of these more precipitous drops right now are red herrings.

[LabourJersey]

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

No?

In terms of federal elections, New Jersey is way too diverse and way too well-educated to turn into a lean blue state, unless the GOP magically turned into the UK Conservatives.

The Republicans won the governorship and the popular vote in the General Assembly elections in 2009: New Jersey was and is still a blue state after that.

State elections are more about the general content or discontent at that moment in time. Admittedly I really underestimated the amount of political discontent with the status quo in NJ. But that doesn't make it a lean Dem state in presidential elections.

Diversity is not destiny as has been recited by many pundits and educational divide is not as stark in NJ. Bush turned 16 point loss in 2000 to 7 point loss in 2004 in NJ. It could always happen again with the right timing and environment. Never say never.

The close gap in 2004 was absolutely a result of 9/11. You can't really compare that to other election years.

New Jersey, much like Maryland and the lower New England states are uniquely well suited to the modern Democratic coalition on the presidential level, even if they elect an occasional GOP governor

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It looks like Lakewood played a major role in Murphy eking it out. He provided vital support for Orthodox Jews in NJ against bigoted municipalities like Mahwah, and high-profile Rabbis endorsed him and flipped the district from heavily Trump to overwhelmingly Murphy. Without that bloc, the remaining blue areas might not have been enough.

Could you imagine Bronz right now? LOL

[Asta]

I'm surprised nobody is entertaining the possibility that we could be headed for a recount territory. Maybe I'm being paranoid but given that Ciattarelli showed up at "Stop the Steal" rally, it seems quite possible that he refuses to concede if he ends up losing, and fires up Republican base.

The momentum will continue to put democracy in peril and also motivate Trump or Trump-like candidates to carry his torch in 2024. Close results above and beyond embarrassment are horrible for Democrats.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

Perhaps the greatest example that you sometimes can beat somebody with Nobody

[One Term Floridian]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

LEGEND

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm surprised nobody is entertaining the possibility that we could be headed for a recount territory. Maybe I'm being paranoid but given that Ciattarelli showed up at "Stop the Steal" rally, it seems quite possible that he refuses to concede if he ends up losing, and fires up Republican base.

The momentum will continue to put democracy in peril and also motivate Trump or Trump-like candidates to carry his torch in 2024. Close results above and beyond embarrassment are horrible for Democrats.

Yeah, this is a nightmare scenario. Maybe even worse than S***arelli winning outright.

But did he really appear at a "Stop the Steal" rally? During the primary I remember Hirsh Singh running against Ciatarelli stating that he said the election was "fair and legitimate."

Well, if he does go full Trumpist (as with Youngkin the 'moderate') I hope suburbanites regret it. I wish the worst on all of them.

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

Perhaps the greatest example that you sometimes can beat somebody with Nobody

I would be infuriated by this if it wasn't Sweeney.

But really? His name is Durr on top of everything? That just adds to the comedic humiliation.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any chance Dems could lose either chamber of state leg?

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

Alright, that's pretty based.

[Asta]

I'm surprised nobody is entertaining the possibility that we could be headed for a recount territory. Maybe I'm being paranoid but given that Ciattarelli showed up at "Stop the Steal" rally, it seems quite possible that he refuses to concede if he ends up losing, and fires up Republican base.

The momentum will continue to put democracy in peril and also motivate Trump or Trump-like candidates to carry his torch in 2024. Close results above and beyond embarrassment are horrible for Democrats.

Yeah, this is a nightmare scenario. Maybe even worse than S***arelli winning outright.

But did he really appear at a "Stop the Steal" rally? During the primary I remember Hirsh Singh running against Ciatarelli stating that he said the election was "fair and legitimate."

Well, if he does go full Trumpist (as with Youngkin the 'moderate') I hope suburbanites regret it. I wish the worst on all of them.

He did show up there, but the worst thing is that his spokeswoman said he didn't know it was a "Stop the Steal" rally. (yeah sure lol)

He said the election was fair and legitimate probably to appeal to moderates. If he decided to distance himself from Trump the start, he knew he wouldn't get the turnout he needed so he probably tried to play both sides. Typical politician move.

[CookieDamage]

Any chance Dems could lose either chamber of state leg?

None, but they'll probably lose their supermajorities

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

Alright, that's pretty based.

Yeah, I'm sure Durr himself is not based, but Sw**ney losing to a Some Guy candidate who spent less money on his campaign than I've spent at some nice restaurants--not even Some Businessman, really truly Some Guy!--is based as hell.

Kind of concerning (on a macro level that doesn't really have a ton to do with this election in particular) that the Lakewood people didn't actually turn out for Murphy when their rabbis endorsed him, but it's still pretty neat that Murphy was saved partly by good old-fashioned constituent service for a community that, despite its many internal problems, is still pretty heavily and pretty unjustly discriminated against in much of the state.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm sorry, but he looks like he raided the capitol.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sweeney losing *almost* makes up for Virginia

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1455968108049420290?s=20

Alright, that's pretty based.

Yeah, I'm sure Durr himself is not based, but Sw**ney losing to a Some Guy candidate who spent less money on his campaign than I've spent at some nice restaurants--not even Some Businessman, really truly Some Guy!--is based as hell.

Kind of concerning (on a macro level that doesn't really have a ton to do with this election in particular) that the Lakewood people didn't actually turn out for Murphy when their rabbis endorsed him, but it's still pretty neat that Murphy was saved partly by good old-fashioned constituent service for a community that, despite its many internal problems, is still pretty heavily and pretty unjustly discriminated against in much of the state.

It actually reminds me a little of the Never Trumpers - while it would be good if they voted for Biden, yes, them staying home also hurt him and was a victory in and of itself. The Murphy campaign is probably thrilled that they were at least able to neutralize the Lakewood vote for Ciatarelli.

[DabbingSanta]

NBC shows a lot of election day ballots still need to be counted in several counties, and that early/mail  ins were counted first.  While the remaining ballots are in heavily Dem areas, the margin is still super close and the election day ballots skew Republican.  That probably explains why this race still hasn't been called by any major networks..