NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Suburbia]

Better start two years before, the South Jersey Democratic boss George Norcross is coming after Gov. Murphy. Could the moribund NJ GOP gain from this?

https://www.nj.com/politics/2019/05/powerful-democrat-to-murphy-you-should-expect-a-democratic-primary-challenge-in-2021.html

[Suburbia]

Moderate South Jersey Democrat State Senate President Stephen Sweeney might run against Murphy in 2021. Sweeney is called a DINO, too conservative, Christiecrat, etc.

[Suburbia]

Jack Ciattarelli, a suburban Somerset Republican, announced in January before COVID-19 that he was running again in 2021

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2020/01/21/nj-governor-race-gop-challenger-jack-ciattarelli-against-phil-murphy/4530919002/

[Suburbia]

I think Murphy wins again, Ciattarelli would be a good congressman in 2022.

[Suburbia]

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.

Do you see Ciattarelli winning any position statewide down the line if he does not win in 2021?

[Suburbia]

Yea, Lance and Frelinghuysen are retired from politics.

It's going to be Ciattarelli vs. Murphy and Murphy wins by 10 points or so.

The NJGOP can rebound in 2025 or 2029, but they have to focus on property taxes.


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334952.225

[Suburbia]

He may be tainted because of Christie, but would Bill Baroni be a good choice?

He is fairly centrist for a Republican....

https://njmonthly.com/articles/jersey-living/power-issue-bill-baroni/

[Suburbia]

Neither state is a particularly likely pickup for Republicans (though Thomas Kean could make it interesting, unless of course he wins his Congressional race, in which case he's obviously not running.)

The fact that TKJ opted for a congressional run against an inoffensive Democrat during a Democratic wave year over a shot at governor should tell you all you need to know about how vulnerable Murphy is in 2021.

This.

Murphy signed tax increases on the rich yesterday, and a lot of Republicans are angry.

But Murphy will win by 5-20 points in 2021.

[Suburbia]

With tax hikes coming, I’m not so confident in Murphy’s chances. If he faces a moderate R like Bob Hugin he’s in a competitive race. Also, keep in mind that New Jersey typically votes the opposite way of who’s in the White House. He’s popular right now, but what fueled Christie’s landslide in 2013 was his national notoriety. Andrew Cuomo has taken that role in the pandemic, not Phil Murphy.

At this point, assuming Biden is president, New Jersey is a tossup for governor. If Trump somehow wins re-election, it’s safe D.

This is something Democrats don't understand. People don't really like taxes. I think Murphy wins regardless but if Biden wins it may be Lean D.

[Suburbia]

With tax hikes coming, I’m not so confident in Murphy’s chances. If he faces a moderate R like Bob Hugin he’s in a competitive race. Also, keep in mind that New Jersey typically votes the opposite way of who’s in the White House. He’s popular right now, but what fueled Christie’s landslide in 2013 was his national notoriety. Andrew Cuomo has taken that role in the pandemic, not Phil Murphy.

At this point, assuming Biden is president, New Jersey is a tossup for governor. If Trump somehow wins re-election, it’s safe D.

I’m not sure, New Jersey’s economy keeps getting worse and worse and tax hikes will crush it.
This is something Democrats don't understand. People don't really like taxes. I think Murphy wins regardless but if Biden wins it may be Lean D.

Why is NJ's economy so sluggish? Even in good national economic times?

[Suburbia]

Murphy is a shoe-in.

Wasn't Old Man Bush a shoe-in for a second term in the Spring of 1991 after the Gulf War ended and he had 90% approval ratings?

This.

New Jersey is not NY. Cuomo or Hochul is a shoo-in unless Harry Wilson runs in NY.

Right now, the motor vehicles department all over NJ is having long lines and frustration. The weather is getting chiller and people don't want to get up at 5 am to drive all the way to the DMV station and wait in a long line.

Murphy needs to get serious about this. If Bob Hugin runs and spends money to knock Ciattarelli out of the race, it could be competitive, but at the end of the day, I see Murphy winning reelection.

Lean/Likely D.

[Suburbia]

South Asian American engineer Hirsh Singh is "pissed at Trump losing" and will run for governor in 2021.

Singh is a perennial candidate.

https://www.insidernj.com/pissed-off-singh-announces-second-bid-nj-governor/

[Suburbia]

I don't even know if Ciattarelli can win the nomination.....

He's better off running against Malinowski in 2022

Bramnick or Steinhardt could win the nomination

But any NJGOPer will lose to Murphy unless property taxes soar and Biden has middling approval ratings in October 2021

They don't poll this race often

A NJ GOPer won't win the governorship until 2025 or 2029

[Suburbia]

Kean or Bramnick could run in 2025 if Murphy wins again in 2021 but they may be old news by then....

Kean and Bramnick have been part of the NJGOP structure since 2007 and they have not made any gains at the legislative level.

NJGOP chair Doug Steinhardt announces he is running for governor

https://www.nj.com/politics/2020/12/nj-republican-chairman-running-for-governor.html

He probably wins the nomination....

Hugin, Kean, Bramnick, or Ciattarelli could beat Malinowski in 2022---they are all dying breed of central Jersey Republicans in the mold of Bob Franks.

[Suburbia]

Bramnick may have been the best shot the NJ GOP had at holding enough Romney/Clinton/Biden and Romney/Trump/Biden voters while also peeling off enough soft Democrats to win.

Hard to see who's left on the bench, unless they go for somebody from the private sector who we don't know about yet.

Al Leiter.

[Suburbia]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

[Suburbia]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/cardinale-still-intends-to-seek-re-election/

Republican State Senator Gerald Cardinale of Bergen County will run for reelection next year at the age of 87. I don't know how people do it.

Both Cardinale and Codey should retire or lose reelection in 2021

Bergen Democrats need to run someone who can beat Cardinale.

Cardinale, Feinstein, Grassley are all old politicians.

[Suburbia]

Murphy wins by 8-9%. Bookmark this.

This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.

That's why he is not going to win anyway, the name is a punchline. Murphy will call him full of s*** for his votes on Christie's tax cuts for the rich et. al.

[Suburbia]

Likely D. Republicans are unlucky in that both 2021 states are hard D. Probably won't tell us anything about 2022.

True, but the GOP will win in 2025....with Jen Beck

[Suburbia]

If Murphy wins again, he better focus like a laser on the economy and lowering property taxes.

Most people commute to NYC, if the virus goes away, people will be afraid to go back.

NJ's unemployment rate spiked from 8.0 percent in Oct to 10.2 in Nov.

Probably because of the shutdowns again and virus spikes.

Murphy better do something about it.

People are angry with him over the MVC delays and the jobs crisis.

He need to cut the corporate tax rate by 2 percent and cap property taxes.

Lean D, for now, but Murphy will win reelection. But his 2022-26 term better be economics and policing reform.

[Suburbia]

Interesting that Don Guardian and Nancy Munoz haven’t been mentioned.

Guardian lost reelection as mayor of Atlantic City to a corrupt Democrat Frank Gillam, who has ethical problems and had to resign due to corruption.

Guardian may be too liberal for the NJGOP, he is openly gay. While Guardian would be the typical Northeastern Republican, socially liberal, economically conservative, he lives in Toms River now where he is a Business Administrator.

Munoz has no real accomplishments; she succeeded her late husband Eric Munoz in 2009.

Harsh Singh is the one who can give Murphy the toughest challenge, he is a minority, Ciattarelli is probably best suited for a run in NJ-07 or NJ-11 in 2022, and Steinhardt is probably going to win the nomination and lose by 3-5 points.

Lean D for now.

[Suburbia]

Interesting that Don Guardian and Nancy Munoz haven’t been mentioned.

Guardian lost reelection as mayor of Atlantic City to a corrupt Democrat Frank Gillam, who has ethical problems and had to resign due to corruption.

Guardian may be too liberal for the NJGOP, he is openly gay. While Guardian would be the typical Northeastern Republican, socially liberal, economically conservative, he lives in Toms River now where he is a Business Administrator.

Munoz has no real accomplishments; she succeeded her late husband Eric Munoz in 2009.

Harsh Singh is the one who can give Murphy the toughest challenge, he is a minority, Ciattarelli is probably best suited for a run in NJ-07 or NJ-11 in 2022, and Steinhardt is probably going to win the nomination and lose by 3-5 points.

Lean D for now.

Being too liberal really shouldn't be too much of an issue in a New Jersey primary, I don't think we're at the point yet where like all of the northern suburbanites who switched to voting D changed their registration. But Guardian is from the south, and the more conservative Republicans in the state do hail from there. Also NJ-11 will not even be winnable in 2022, the seat is going to become anchored by Montclair, Livingston, and the rest of West Essex's blue suburbs, and probably drop the more heavily conservative towns such as those in eastern Morris to a new sink, which will probably be the 7th. An interesting dynamic here will be the primary, Sweeney has still refused to endorse Murphy I believe, as has Norcross, either of them running or backing a significant primary challenge could weaken Murphy, but the current crop of candidates is just not that impressive. I expect Murphy to win by high single digits to low double digits in the end.

Sweeney would lose a primary to Murphy.

Most NJ Democratic governors since Florio always face intraparty challenges from the left and the right flank of the party.

Florio's 1990 tax increases cost Democrats the legislature in 1991, Bob Franks and the NJGOP worked and rolled their sleeves up to redistrict NJ to the GOP's favor in the 1990s, for the last time. Florio was a one-termer.

McGreevey's poor leadership forced him out, before the sex scandal came out McGreevey would have faced a primary challenge in 2005, the wealthy Corzine forced Dick Codey out of the race and won.

Corzine's poor leadership almost gave him a primary challenge in 2009; like David Paterson in NY, the Obama White House wanted Corzine to retire in 2009 because they thought that Codey would have prevented a Christie governorship. Corzine had a car accident that nearly killed him, he was a progressive for a wealthy man, he loved tax hikes, signed legislation to abolish the death penalty in 2007 and wanted state run government health care. All of that was erased because NJ cares about taxes, taxes, taxes, and NJ is one of the highest-taxed states in America.

Pre-COVID, I thought Murphy would face a challenge from Sweeney or Norcross's people, maybe Jeff Van Drew before he switched parties.

Assemblyman Jamel Holley would have challenged Murphy, but he is an anti-vax liberal who would not do well in the white suburbs.

Pascrell is too old to run...

[Suburbia]

Safe D. Murphy had a good COVID response and should ride the wave of high approval to re-election in 2021.

I think Likely D more than Safe D.

They are a lot of angry Jerseyans who don't like the shutdown in the spring and they are angry about the lack of jobs in the state.

His second term better be job-centric. Murphy should run on marijuana legalization that he signed and also his state bank that he proposed.

[Suburbia]

If Murphy has any ties to China, he could be in trouble.

Would it change anything?

https://www.nj.com/politics/2017/06/jim_johnson_hits_phil_murphy_over_goldman_sach_asi.html

[Suburbia]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/campaigns/steinhardt-drops-out-of-gop-gubernatorial-race/

Former State GOP Chair Doug Steinhardt is out. He was running as a MAGA candidate,  and Trumpism REALLY does not play well in this state. Jack Ciattarelli is now the strong favorite for the GOP nomination.

He released this ad on the day of the Capitol riot, attacking Ciattarelli for not supporting Trump in 2016:
https://twitter.com/TeamSteinhardt/status/1346833912258043905

And Ciattarelli will lose to Murphy by 4-8 points. The only person who could beat Murphy is Joe Piscopo or Al Leiter. They have name ID. Ciattarelli, no one knows who that is.