NJ-GOV 2021 megathread (user search)
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  NJ-GOV 2021 megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ-GOV 2021 megathread  (Read 49499 times)
LabourJersey
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« on: May 24, 2019, 06:53:07 PM »

If Norcross were to get some South Jersey moderate Democrat to run against Murphy in the primary, things could be interesting but I don't see a path to victory. And I think Murphy is only vulnerable if there is both a Democratic President and a declining economy.

Murphy is by no means a talented politician but I think he will manage to get a second term
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2020, 04:21:05 PM »

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2020, 01:07:19 PM »

Unless dropped by the county committees (or redistricted together), no NJ incumbents will ever get primaried.

If Norcross goes through with his threats, it's possible.

Norcross's influence is dwindling at this point. Him and Sweeney looked like fools when Van Drew switch parties; they nursed Van Drew's rise in the Legislature and urged him to get into the race. Also is Amy Kennedy beats Bridget Callahan Harrison in NJ-02 (Harrison is the Sweeney/Norcross candidate, albeit it's not that tight a connection) it will continue to show Norcross's grip on South Jersey isn't strong.

Back to the original question:Ciattarelli is probably going to be the GOP nominee, since the bench for Republicans right now is very thin, and in the wake of COVID most are going to take a pass on trying to oust Murphy. I think the race is Likely D for now: could easily become Safe D so long as Murphy continues to handle things as well as he has.
Do you see Ciattarelli winning any position statewide down the line if he does not win in 2021?

He probably doesn't have other options politically, aside from running against Malinowski in 2022 if Kean loses this November. However redistricting might throw a wrench into that plan
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2020, 06:56:18 PM »


I think especially after Murphy's leadership during the covid crisis, he wins easily.

He has a 77% approval rating.

But sure, a squabble with the South Jersey machine is going to sink him in the primary(!) when the vast majority of the voters are in North Jersey, and then he's going to lose the general to a Democrat-turned-Republican from the most remote part of the state in deep blue New Jersey.

Lol, that's one way of looking at it, sure.

Who said Murphy was sunk in the primary? That's ridiculous. He has terrific political instincts, especially on the local level. His brilliant overtaking of the Somerset County Board of Freeholders (in New Jersey, the party that controls the county governing body also controls the politics of the county) has cemented his hold on North Jersey, and therefore the party's nomination. Hell, I still vote in NJ and will be an enthusiastic supporter of his.

South Jersey, outside of Camden, is moving quickly away from Democrats and that is the biggest threat to Norcross' power. Steve Sweeney represents a 50-46 Trump seat. Van Drew's assembly seat was 54-43 Trump. Hugin's performance was exceptional. It is likely inevitable that Norcross will have to work with the GOP even more in the future than he does now to maintain his own power. Van Drew's party switch is in all likelihood just a head start.

You're wrong about Van Drew's political viability, especially in a non-federal race. He is an exceptional vote-getter and, having run in the Philadelphia media market for almost 20 years now, is familiar to far more voters than you realize. The Enquirer would ensure he is covered favorably. He won a comfortable victory in a federal race as the GOP nominee for Senate was winning the same district by double digits. He is now a largely pro-choice Republican with Dem machine support in an overwhelmingly pro-choice state where gubernatorial elections are regularly decided on GOP-friendly tax issues alone. His biggest hurdle would be his newfound effusive praise for Trump (and Trump's of him) which would be easier to overcome in a Biden midterm with low Dem turnout in a state with already (often intentionally) pitiful turnout patterns. Hard to see how he is not one of the strongest possible GOP candidates in a race with the odds already heavily against them.

I really do not see Van Drew running against Murphy in 2021; that's an uphill challenge in normal times and I don't see Murphy losing this race. Low turnout doesn't really mean much in New Jersey since turnout tends to be from machine-loyal voters (mostly Democratic but some Republicans in places like Ocean, Monmouth, Sussex Counties) and highly-educated voters (who are trending rapidly towards Democrats). I also don't think Van Drew is that impressive as a vote-getter; he only got 60% in the 2018 Dem primary against a couple of complete nobodies, not to mention dramatically underperformed in the general election against a known racist.

After 2021 it's hard to tell what happens; it's certainly possible a Republican wins the Governorship, but the GOP has by now transformed into a party with very, very little appeal to a state that is diverse, densely populated, relatively affluent and relatively well-educated.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2020, 12:12:14 PM »

I want to address the line about Democrats not winning a second gubernatorial term since 1977: it should be noted up until 1988 NJ was viewed as a Lean R state because of the large population of college educated white voters. In the late 80s and 1990s increases in immigration and the early movement of suburbanites to the Democrats made it an Atlas Red state at the national state, but of course state level elections take longer to reflect trends.

But the lack of electoral success for the Democrats is partially coincidence. If McGreevey wasn't so corrupt (and having that affair with the Israeli nat'l security consultant) he would have easily won a second term in 2005. Corzine also probably could have eeked out a second term if Chris Daggett had not run as a third-party, or if he had been plainly a better retail politician (he was *famously* bad at retail politics). And of course the state has moved very, very sharply toward the Democrats since 2009 that it's more of an uphill climb for the Republicans to win.

I do agree with other posters about how the NJ GOP is more competent when it comes to nominating sane candidates than, say the VA GOP, CA GOP, etc. I just think it's becoming a lot harder for the GOP to win the governor's mansion.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2020, 09:58:01 PM »


This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.

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LabourJersey
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« Reply #6 on: December 16, 2020, 06:48:57 PM »


This. Lean D, until I see the NJGOP field a good candidate.

No one can say Ciattarelli's name.

Murphy 53
Ciattarelli 45

Murphy 51
Steinhardt 46

Murphy 55
Singh 44

2025 or 2029 will be the NJGOP's year.

The only one who can beat Murphy is Shaun Golden or Joe Piscopo.

It's Chitt-a-relli. It's not *that* hard to pronounce.


I'll be honest, I live in Los Angeles, I see hard names all the time, I had no ing idea how to say it. Italian right?

Yeah, it's Italian. I think this is more an example of me being familiar with Italian names than anything, haha.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2021, 12:48:43 PM »

Sen. Tom Kean Jr. will not run for reelection to his LD-21 district, making it most likely that he will challenge Malinowski again in 2022......

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/kean-2021-re-elect/

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick will run for the state Senate seat, making a leadership vacuum in the Assembly GOP....

This district was once a central Jersey affluent Republican stronghold to a swing district, because of Christie and Trump.


It would be hilarious if Kean announces a run against Malinowski only for the Redistricting Commission to put his hometown (Westfield) in Mikie Sherill's district (which I've heard is a possibility)
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2021, 01:04:53 PM »

Sen. Tom Kean Jr. will not run for reelection to his LD-21 district, making it most likely that he will challenge Malinowski again in 2022......

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/kean-2021-re-elect/

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick will run for the state Senate seat, making a leadership vacuum in the Assembly GOP....

This district was once a central Jersey affluent Republican stronghold to a swing district, because of Christie and Trump.


It would be hilarious if Kean announces a run against Malinowski only for the Redistricting Commission to put his hometown (Westfield) in Mikie Sherill's district (which I've heard is a possibility)

He's got a spot on the commission, so I doubt it.

Oh really? I thought the legislative leaders usually just put allies on the commission rather than themselves.

In that case I guess I'll take back that prediciton
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2021, 08:38:27 AM »

Here's my prediction as of now:


Governor Phillip D. Murphy / Lt. Governor Shelia Oliver (D) - 1,214,900 votes, 55.86%
Former Rep. Jack M. Ciattarelli / TBD (R) - 960,100 votes, 44.14%

Why would Murphy lose Somerset? Even Menendez carried it in 2018.

Yeah. Somerset is just 69% white and about 50% college educated. The Republican party of 2021 is not going to win a county like that
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2021, 10:28:53 AM »

Did we ever get word on what Dem turnout was like on primary day?

Per Wikipedia, 334,560 voted in the Democratic primary. Which is definitely a decline from 2017 when 503,000 voted but not as dramatic as I would've expected.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2021, 02:18:20 PM »

Ciatarelli is resorting to flying banners over the Jersey Shore that claim Murphy has said he wants to turn Jersey into California.

If that's the best he's got... woof

Ciattarelli just doesn't have any momentum right now, nor does he have a platform that matters to NJ voters.

Murphy will definitely win by 13-15%
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2021, 02:59:02 PM »

Murphy will win by 11 or 12.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2021, 08:45:15 PM »

Any chance of an upset here or is that too unlikely?

I still think it's not very likely since we have so little of Essex, Bergen, Hudson, and Union out

Yeah, the large Dem counties are still out.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2021, 07:13:47 AM »


Well, I was completely wrong. Admittedly I didn't pay attention to this race anywhere near as closely as VA, but this still feels like a shock
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2021, 10:45:36 AM »

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  Smile

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

No?

In terms of federal elections, New Jersey is way too diverse and way too well-educated to turn into a lean blue state, unless the GOP magically turned into the UK Conservatives.

The Republicans won the governorship and the popular vote in the General Assembly elections in 2009: New Jersey was and is still a blue state after that.

State elections are more about the general content or discontent at that moment in time. Admittedly I really underestimated the amount of political discontent with the status quo in NJ. But that doesn't make it a lean Dem state in presidential elections.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2021, 12:29:06 PM »

Just returned my mail ballot for Murphy.  Smile

I'll take a bit of contrarian view and say Ciatarelli will make it close. Murphy will win by 4-6%.
Murphy's 52-38 approval rating looks decent but when you consider the other 10% that are undecided, my guess is that they'll swing for Ciatarelli.

Democrats seem to let their guard down after showing up in previous elections. Republicans' red wave always seems to dwarf Democrats' blue wave and unless I see otherwise, I'll always believe Republicans will have the edge in gubernatorial and congressional elections in neutral environment.

I was right about the bolded part at least.
I predicted 4-6%, but deep down, I always felt Ciattarelli is within striking distance with a bit of polling error.

People forget that this is a state Christie won by a landslide not long ago and Menendez won by a pedestrian 12% in a blue wave year.

Democrats by 13 to 14

New registration was nearly 2 to 1 Democrats from Nov. 2016 to Nov. 2020.
Despite the fact that NJ had the most covid deaths per capita and promising registration numbers, the state trended right. Democrats have to take the state seriously. It's not a toss-up state for now but it will slowly turn that way if we take it for granted.

NJ registered more Republicans than Democrats after Biden was inaugurated. We could really turn from a solid blue state to a lean blue state in the near future if we let our guard down. NJ needs to keep registering far more Democrats if we want to keep up solid blue margin. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins NJ only by 10 points in 2024.  

No?

In terms of federal elections, New Jersey is way too diverse and way too well-educated to turn into a lean blue state, unless the GOP magically turned into the UK Conservatives.

The Republicans won the governorship and the popular vote in the General Assembly elections in 2009: New Jersey was and is still a blue state after that.

State elections are more about the general content or discontent at that moment in time. Admittedly I really underestimated the amount of political discontent with the status quo in NJ. But that doesn't make it a lean Dem state in presidential elections.

Diversity is not destiny as has been recited by many pundits and educational divide is not as stark in NJ. Bush turned 16 point loss in 2000 to 7 point loss in 2004 in NJ. It could always happen again with the right timing and environment. Never say never.

The close gap in 2004 was absolutely a result of 9/11. You can't really compare that to other election years.

New Jersey, much like Maryland and the lower New England states are uniquely well suited to the modern Democratic coalition on the presidential level, even if they elect an occasional GOP governor
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2021, 02:00:30 PM »



Perhaps the greatest example that you sometimes can beat somebody with Nobody
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