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  2022 Gubernatorial Elections
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Duke of York
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« Reply #25 on: May 07, 2019, 05:38:17 pm »

Here in TX, Abbott's very popular & he's likely running again in 2022 based on the massive $$$ he's piling up in fundraising & donors contributing to his campaign.

In NY St: Cuomo pretty much all but said he's pushing toward a 4th term in 2022 & if he pulls it off, he'll accomplish something that his late Daddy couldn't do in 1994, win a 4th term.



If Cuomo runs for a fourth term its very unlikely he doesnt get it. New York is a very different state then it was in 1994.

He will likely face a much stronger primary challenge.

I agree with a above poster that Whitmer is likely favored for reelection. Evers is probably lean D. Pennsylvania will probably go republican. Pennsylvania has not elected back to back governors of the same party in many years.

Polis will likely get a second term. Hickenlooper held on in 2014 and its reasonable to assume Polis would survive under a Democratic preisdent

1.) Last NY St Governor to win a 4th term was Good Ole Rocky in 1970.

2.) Cuomo isn't scared of a primary challenge, I don't see him getting Dolph Briscoe'd. He's won 4 consecutive statewide elections (State AG in 2006 & Governor in 2010, 2014 & 2018). I don't see him losing & he's fundraising non-stop.



Andrew Cuomo would once again beat his challenger by a 2-1 margin. He pretty much remains governor as long as he wants. However, I hope Queen Kathy gets the chance to succeed him.

I don't know about winning by such a margin in the 2022 primary. There are a lot of people who want to be Governor.  I dont know who would challenge and risk tarnishing their image in the party. A primary challenge is likely though
 
I hope Hochul gets the chance to succeed him as well. Cuomo would likely endorse her as his successor if he forgoes a fourth term but if he achieves what his father couldn't I dont see her getting the opportunity.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #26 on: May 07, 2019, 05:58:25 pm »

Here in TX, Abbott's very popular & he's likely running again in 2022 based on the massive $$$ he's piling up in fundraising & donors contributing to his campaign.

In NY St: Cuomo pretty much all but said he's pushing toward a 4th term in 2022 & if he pulls it off, he'll accomplish something that his late Daddy couldn't do in 1994, win a 4th term.



If Cuomo runs for a fourth term its very unlikely he doesnt get it. New York is a very different state then it was in 1994.

He will likely face a much stronger primary challenge.

I agree with a above poster that Whitmer is likely favored for reelection. Evers is probably lean D. Pennsylvania will probably go republican. Pennsylvania has not elected back to back governors of the same party in many years.

Polis will likely get a second term. Hickenlooper held on in 2014 and its reasonable to assume Polis would survive under a Democratic preisdent

1.) Last NY St Governor to win a 4th term was Good Ole Rocky in 1970.

2.) Cuomo isn't scared of a primary challenge, I don't see him getting Dolph Briscoe'd. He's won 4 consecutive statewide elections (State AG in 2006 & Governor in 2010, 2014 & 2018). I don't see him losing & he's fundraising non-stop.



Andrew Cuomo would once again beat his challenger by a 2-1 margin. He pretty much remains governor as long as he wants. However, I hope Queen Kathy gets the chance to succeed him.

I don't know about winning by such a margin in the 2022 primary. There are a lot of people who want to be Governor.  I dont know who would challenge and risk tarnishing their image in the party. A primary challenge is likely though
 
I hope Hochul gets the chance to succeed him as well. Cuomo would likely endorse her as his successor if he forgoes a fourth term but if he achieves what his father couldn't I dont see her getting the opportunity.

Last I checked, Cuomo's raising lots of $$$ & plans on running for reelection regardless. Primary challenges sometimes lead to disastrous results (see 1978 TX Governor, where Hill knocked off Briscoe, whose supporters bolted to Clements & we all know how that story went & 1986 AL Governor, where the nasty Dem Primary resulted in Hunt winning the AL Governor's Mansion).
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Duke of York
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« Reply #27 on: May 07, 2019, 06:18:47 pm »

Here in TX, Abbott's very popular & he's likely running again in 2022 based on the massive $$$ he's piling up in fundraising & donors contributing to his campaign.

In NY St: Cuomo pretty much all but said he's pushing toward a 4th term in 2022 & if he pulls it off, he'll accomplish something that his late Daddy couldn't do in 1994, win a 4th term.



If Cuomo runs for a fourth term its very unlikely he doesnt get it. New York is a very different state then it was in 1994.

He will likely face a much stronger primary challenge.

I agree with a above poster that Whitmer is likely favored for reelection. Evers is probably lean D. Pennsylvania will probably go republican. Pennsylvania has not elected back to back governors of the same party in many years.

Polis will likely get a second term. Hickenlooper held on in 2014 and its reasonable to assume Polis would survive under a Democratic preisdent

1.) Last NY St Governor to win a 4th term was Good Ole Rocky in 1970.

2.) Cuomo isn't scared of a primary challenge, I don't see him getting Dolph Briscoe'd. He's won 4 consecutive statewide elections (State AG in 2006 & Governor in 2010, 2014 & 2018). I don't see him losing & he's fundraising non-stop.



Andrew Cuomo would once again beat his challenger by a 2-1 margin. He pretty much remains governor as long as he wants. However, I hope Queen Kathy gets the chance to succeed him.

I don't know about winning by such a margin in the 2022 primary. There are a lot of people who want to be Governor.  I dont know who would challenge and risk tarnishing their image in the party. A primary challenge is likely though
 
I hope Hochul gets the chance to succeed him as well. Cuomo would likely endorse her as his successor if he forgoes a fourth term but if he achieves what his father couldn't I dont see her getting the opportunity.

Last I checked, Cuomo's raising lots of $$$ & plans on running for reelection regardless. Primary challenges sometimes lead to disastrous results (see 1978 TX Governor, where Hill knocked off Briscoe, whose supporters bolted to Clements & we all know how that story went & 1986 AL Governor, where the nasty Dem Primary resulted in Hunt winning the AL Governor's Mansion).


If he runs for a fourth term its very likely he gets it as New York is very different from how it was in 1994.

But it is possible Hochul might not stick around for a 3rd term
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #28 on: May 07, 2019, 07:19:05 pm »

AZ: Will the AZ Dems get their groove back ?
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Georgia Is A Swing State
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« Reply #29 on: May 07, 2019, 10:20:45 pm »

GA is a tossup in a Dem midterm and Tilt D in a Trump midterm
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #30 on: May 08, 2019, 07:47:27 pm »

The obstructionist GOP-controlled MI State Legislature will overplay their hand sooner or later, they've been undermining Whitmer every step of the way since she took her hand off the Bible 4 months ago.

But generally speaking voters tend to side with the legislature, just look at Illinois, dems obstructed Bruce Rauner for four full years and in the end voters rewarded Madigan by electing a D governor.

More relevant than the governor vs. legislature dynamic is the fact that Mike Madigan has been Speaker of the IL House for 34 of the past 36 years. Meaning, Madigan represents an entrenched majority that's prevailed in 17 of the past 18 elections. Bruce Rauner won one election, and then tried to govern in opposition to the entrenched majority. Predictably, he failed. Not because he was a governor and they were legislators, but because persistent legislative majorities are typically a good proxy for the political leanings of a given state.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #31 on: May 12, 2019, 01:22:58 am »

If Trump wins:

With Tossup


Without Tossup



If Trump loses:

With Tossup


Without Tossup
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #32 on: May 12, 2019, 03:58:58 am »

If Trump wins:

With Tossup


Without Tossup



If Trump loses:

With Tossup


Without Tossup


What are you smoking ? Even under a Trump midterm scenario Ohio, South Carolina and Florida have no chance to flip to D
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #33 on: May 12, 2019, 04:04:12 am »

The obstructionist GOP-controlled MI State Legislature will overplay their hand sooner or later, they've been undermining Whitmer every step of the way since she took her hand off the Bible 4 months ago.

But generally speaking voters tend to side with the legislature, just look at Illinois, dems obstructed Bruce Rauner for four full years and in the end voters rewarded Madigan by electing a D governor.

More relevant than the governor vs. legislature dynamic is the fact that Mike Madigan has been Speaker of the IL House for 34 of the past 36 years. Meaning, Madigan represents an entrenched majority that's prevailed in 17 of the past 18 elections. Bruce Rauner won one election, and then tried to govern in opposition to the entrenched majority. Predictably, he failed. Not because he was a governor and they were legislators, but because persistent legislative majorities are typically a good proxy for the political leanings of a given state.

Republicans have a entrenched majority in the Michigan senate and Dems have rarely controlled the Michigan House. The real problem is that when you are governor, people will blame you for every bad thing which is happening in the state because you are easily identifiable, you are a high profile politician, while state legislators are totally unknown and thus will escape the blame from voters
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #34 on: May 12, 2019, 04:31:31 am »
« Edited: May 12, 2019, 04:37:10 am by Frenchrepublican »

Under a Biden midterm



And under a Trump midterm (most races shift toward Dems)



I expect open races in VT/AZ/IA/NH
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #35 on: May 15, 2019, 01:52:11 am »

The obstructionist GOP-controlled MI State Legislature will overplay their hand sooner or later, they've been undermining Whitmer every step of the way since she took her hand off the Bible 4 months ago.

But generally speaking voters tend to side with the legislature, just look at Illinois, dems obstructed Bruce Rauner for four full years and in the end voters rewarded Madigan by electing a D governor.

More relevant than the governor vs. legislature dynamic is the fact that Mike Madigan has been Speaker of the IL House for 34 of the past 36 years. Meaning, Madigan represents an entrenched majority that's prevailed in 17 of the past 18 elections. Bruce Rauner won one election, and then tried to govern in opposition to the entrenched majority. Predictably, he failed. Not because he was a governor and they were legislators, but because persistent legislative majorities are typically a good proxy for the political leanings of a given state.

Republicans have a entrenched majority in the Michigan senate and Dems have rarely controlled the Michigan House. The real problem is that when you are governor, people will blame you for every bad thing which is happening in the state because you are easily identifiable, you are a high profile politician, while state legislators are totally unknown and thus will escape the blame from voters

That's also true, assuming the political split is closer to 50-50. In IL, MA, CA, etc., it's not. In MI, it certainly is, but Republicans have also maintained control of the MI Senate despite earning significantly fewer votes (same story in NY). So a GOP majority isn't necessarily indicative of broad electoral support. Election cycles also play an important role. In MN in 2012, the ostensibly obstructive Republican legislature was given the boot. Was it due to overreach and Dayton's popularity? Maybe, but there's also a strong possibility that their fate was sealed by the presidential race. 
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #36 on: May 15, 2019, 01:49:23 pm »

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #37 on: May 15, 2019, 02:52:28 pm »

The obstructionist GOP-controlled MI State Legislature will overplay their hand sooner or later, they've been undermining Whitmer every step of the way since she took her hand off the Bible 4 months ago.

But generally speaking voters tend to side with the legislature, just look at Illinois, dems obstructed Bruce Rauner for four full years and in the end voters rewarded Madigan by electing a D governor.

More relevant than the governor vs. legislature dynamic is the fact that Mike Madigan has been Speaker of the IL House for 34 of the past 36 years. Meaning, Madigan represents an entrenched majority that's prevailed in 17 of the past 18 elections. Bruce Rauner won one election, and then tried to govern in opposition to the entrenched majority. Predictably, he failed. Not because he was a governor and they were legislators, but because persistent legislative majorities are typically a good proxy for the political leanings of a given state.

Republicans have a entrenched majority in the Michigan senate and Dems have rarely controlled the Michigan House. The real problem is that when you are governor, people will blame you for every bad thing which is happening in the state because you are easily identifiable, you are a high profile politician, while state legislators are totally unknown and thus will escape the blame from voters

Like I said before, the MI State Legislature cannot stay in GOP hands forever.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #38 on: May 16, 2019, 04:28:08 pm »

The obstructionist GOP-controlled MI State Legislature will overplay their hand sooner or later, they've been undermining Whitmer every step of the way since she took her hand off the Bible 4 months ago.

But generally speaking voters tend to side with the legislature, just look at Illinois, dems obstructed Bruce Rauner for four full years and in the end voters rewarded Madigan by electing a D governor.

More relevant than the governor vs. legislature dynamic is the fact that Mike Madigan has been Speaker of the IL House for 34 of the past 36 years. Meaning, Madigan represents an entrenched majority that's prevailed in 17 of the past 18 elections. Bruce Rauner won one election, and then tried to govern in opposition to the entrenched majority. Predictably, he failed. Not because he was a governor and they were legislators, but because persistent legislative majorities are typically a good proxy for the political leanings of a given state.

Republicans have a entrenched majority in the Michigan senate and Dems have rarely controlled the Michigan House. The real problem is that when you are governor, people will blame you for every bad thing which is happening in the state because you are easily identifiable, you are a high profile politician, while state legislators are totally unknown and thus will escape the blame from voters

That's also true, assuming the political split is closer to 50-50. In IL, MA, CA, etc., it's not. In MI, it certainly is, but Republicans have also maintained control of the MI Senate despite earning significantly fewer votes (same story in NY). So a GOP majority isn't necessarily indicative of broad electoral support. Election cycles also play an important role. In MN in 2012, the ostensibly obstructive Republican legislature was given the boot. Was it due to overreach and Dayton's popularity? Maybe, but there's also a strong possibility that their fate was sealed by the presidential race.

Yeah, you have a point, if the MI house were to flip in 2020 it would be because of a Biden landslide, not because of GOP obstructing Gretchen Whitmer and other D executives
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #39 on: May 16, 2019, 05:16:17 pm »

Interesting to see what are Whitmer's approval ratings...
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