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  Can Someone Please Explain Who The Heck Wagner/Casey Voters Were?
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Author Topic: Can Someone Please Explain Who The Heck Wagner/Casey Voters Were?  (Read 561 times)
Bagel23
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« on: May 10, 2019, 04:10:31 pm »

Ok, Wolf/Barletta voters are super easy to explain, Republican people in the suburbs mostly for Trump disgusted by Wagner and his campaign, and willing to vote for somebody palatable to them like Wolf, also a lot of NEPA Luzerne blue collar dem Trump voters who backed the hometown boy, but returned to the dems (or at least partially and substantially) for many of the other races, etc etc. But who the actual f#ck are the Wagner/Casey voters? Like uhh what? And it is not just like a few of Wagner’s family members who may be dems or whatever, but like there are entire f#cking counties in PA where Casey outran Wolf, and even some areas like Elk and Cameron counties where the math would be hard for Casey to not have received several hundred Wagner votes as well. Who are these people? Are they ancestrally GOP or Dem? Did they vote for Trump or Hillary? etc.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2019, 04:15:35 pm »

Longtime GOP voters who didn't like Trump but automatically voted Republican at the state level?
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Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2019, 04:19:23 pm »

Catholics who vote primarily based on abortion

But Wagner and Barletta are much more pro life than both Casey and Wolf by miles.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2019, 04:19:49 pm »

Longtime GOP voters who didn't like Trump but automatically voted Republican at the state level?

Yeah, that sounds possible.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2019, 08:51:28 am »

Catholics who vote primarily based on abortion

But Wagner and Barletta are much more pro life than both Casey and Wolf by miles.

In addition to Mizzouian's point about Democratic-leaning Catholics, they could also be making the same calculus that I make regarding JBE if they're single-issue voters. Sure, his opponent is probably an even stronger opponent of abortion, but having an anti-abortion Democrat is significantly more valuable to the national movement than just another anti-abortion Republican. It shows that abortion is opposed in both parties, which increases the credibility of the argument against it, and it also preserves some hope that the issue can be raised above partisanship once again.
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Stupor Mundi
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2019, 01:47:47 pm »
« Edited: May 12, 2019, 01:55:59 pm by X-Filed Away »

Catholics who vote primarily based on abortion

But Wagner and Barletta are much more pro life than both Casey and Wolf by miles.

In addition to Mizzouian's point about Democratic-leaning Catholics, they could also be making the same calculus that I make regarding JBE if they're single-issue voters. Sure, his opponent is probably an even stronger opponent of abortion, but having an anti-abortion Democrat is significantly more valuable to the national movement than just another anti-abortion Republican. It shows that abortion is opposed in both parties, which increases the credibility of the argument against it, and it also preserves some hope that the issue can be raised above partisanship once again.

Except that's not really the biggest credibility problem the pro-life movement has.  The main credibility issues the pro-life movement has are...

1) when you guys take control of a trifecta, you tend to jump straight to trying to pass some sort of batsh!t insane grotesque monstrosity like the Ohio abortion law in the most callous and unempathetic manner possible as SCOTUS bait while making it abundantly clear that a good chunk of you guys don't give a fig about who gets hurt as a result.  It's not often that pro-lifers start off with abortion legislation that comes across to the general public as...you know...sane.  As a result, folks who might actually be persuadable regarding at least certain restrictions look at the pro-life movement and essentially think "JFC, these people are a bunch of deranged nutjobs; I don't even care what their argument is, they're just horrible people."  

2) whether the caricature is accurate or not, most Americans see pro-lifers as a much of self-righteous charlatans who just want an excuse to whine about what other people do in their bedrooms [elaborated on in 5)]

3) the pro-life movement generally opposes things like greater access to affordable, effective contraceptives and children being given real sex education classes (i.e. none of that abstinence-only nonsense, 9/10 times you lose all credibility when you suggest abstinence-only education, period), etc that would actually reduce the number of abortions.  You can't have it both ways, realistically.  The choice is ultimately between making it easier to have sex without even risking pregnancy or more abortions.  Pro-lifers don't have to like that, but their refusal to accept this reality has done them no favors in the credibility department

4) fairly or unfairly, no one who isn't already firmly in the pro-life camp takes pro-life politicians seriously when they say it's about protecting the the unborn rather than just a bunch of grumpy old men who want to use the issue to punish women for having sinister sinful sex *gasp* out of wedlock Shocked  Again, that may not be the reality of the pro-life movement, but it is definitely how the public perceives it.

5) The pro-life movement is closely associated with political [as opposed to religious] evangelicalism, Most of the prominent American evangelical leaders have a tendency to come across as incredibly self-righteous, dogmatic, and generally unpleasant human beings (almost like the https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/HateSink of modern American politics).  Many have also proven to be morally bankrupt hypocrites, regardless of what the average evangelical is actually like.  

Fairly or unfairly, when Americans think of evangelicals these days, they don't think of Ned Flanders or even Russell Moore.  They think of folks like Billy Graham, Franklin Graham, Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee, Jim Bakker, Roy Moore, Jerry Falwell Sr., Jerry Falwell Jr., James Dobson, Joel Osteen, Jimmy Swaggart, Tony Perkins, and Ted Haggard, and that crazy person who won't stop shoving pictures of dead fetuses in your face every day.  Some of these folks may now be remembered better than others, but only Billy Graham could credibly be argued not to have shown himself to be morally bankrupt snake-oil salesmen.  The fact is that the evangelical political movement is widely regarded today as an immoral minority led by a collection of bible-thumping con artists and that does hurt the pro-life movement's credibility, whether fairly or unfairly.  

Also, the political evangelical movement's embrace of Trump has probably done more to turn it into a national laughingstock among non-evangelicals than just about anything in modern American history and this killshot at the credibility of political evangelicalism has exacerbated the damage caused by its close association with the pro-life movement.  

These are the sorts of credibility issues the pro-life movement should be working to address if it wants to be taken seriously by the general public (but probably won't).
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RoboWop
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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2019, 02:08:41 pm »

Waste of a lot of characters. Other challenges to the anti-abortion movement's image don't have anything to do with whether this is a way to gain credibility.
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Stupor Mundi
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2019, 02:12:00 pm »

Waste of a lot of characters. Other challenges to the anti-abortion movement's image don't have anything to do with whether this is a way to gain credibility.

Sure it does, no one cares whether there are a few token pro-life Democrats or not, even most pro-lifers know that Tongue  And that will remain the case until the aforementioned issues are addressed.
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RoboWop
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« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2019, 11:31:11 pm »

Waste of a lot of characters. Other challenges to the anti-abortion movement's image don't have anything to do with whether this is a way to gain credibility.

Sure it does, no one cares whether there are a few token pro-life Democrats or not, even most pro-lifers know that Tongue  And that will remain the case until the aforementioned issues are addressed.

I literally just told you I care. Guess some people are just here to bang their heads against the wall. Not for me; I won't be responding to this thread further.
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2019, 09:18:55 am »

He's somewhat pro-life, he's been a long term incumbent, and it helps that a lot of people thought his dad was a good governor.  I don't understand why this is surprising.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2019, 05:42:30 pm »

He's somewhat pro-life, he's been a long term incumbent, and it helps that a lot of people thought his dad was a good governor.  I don't understand why this is surprising.

Because Wolf was more popular and facing a worse opponent in a less partisan race
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2019, 09:36:39 pm »

Casey Family Name among Catholic and Rural Ancestral Democrats.
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