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June 16, 2019, 09:35:41 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  Hood or JBE or Beshear
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Poll
Question: Which Democratic presumptive gubernatorial nominee has the best chance of winning the most votes in their contest in 2019?
#1Jim Hood  
#2John Bel Edwards  
#3Andy Beshear  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 86

Author Topic: Hood or JBE or Beshear  (Read 884 times)
Nyvin
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« Reply #25 on: May 18, 2019, 05:31:17 pm »

The State House districts as electoral college thing in MS (which Hood would surely lose if it holds up in court) only applies if no one has a majority of the statewide vote.  Is there a serious 3rd party candidate running? 

Mississippi doesn't vote third party much,  so the chances of the state house college thing actually affecting the outcome is quite low.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #26 on: May 18, 2019, 05:32:55 pm »

The State House districts as electoral college thing in MS (which Hood would surely lose if it holds up in court) only applies if no one has a majority of the statewide vote.  Is there a serious 3rd party candidate running? 

Mississippi doesn't vote third party much,  so the chances of the state house college thing actually affecting the outcome is quite low.

The one time it has happened (for Governor), they chose the PV winner anyway (Musgrove 1999).
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Bagel23
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« Reply #27 on: May 18, 2019, 05:45:03 pm »

All will lose, JBE least likely to lose, Hood most likely to. Ratings

LA: Strong Lean R, I am a firm believer as of 3 weeks ago or so  that JBE is f$cked

MS: Strong Likely R, Tate Reeves is very underrated as a candidate, and the whole legislature district winning thing too

KY: Likely R, partisanship wins for the worse at the end of the day here
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #28 on: May 18, 2019, 05:49:02 pm »
« Edited: May 18, 2019, 05:55:49 pm by Skill and Chance »

The State House districts as electoral college thing in MS (which Hood would surely lose if it holds up in court) only applies if no one has a majority of the statewide vote.  Is there a serious 3rd party candidate running? 

Mississippi doesn't vote third party much,  so the chances of the state house college thing actually affecting the outcome is quite low.

Even if Hood wins a majority of the PV, he still must win the EC as well. Or it goes to the legislature who will choose the Republican regardless and not suffer any consequemces

Wow.  It does apply to majority PV winners after all.  That may well be unconstitutional under Gray v. Sanders. 

If Hood wins a majority of the PV and courts allow the legislature to still elect Reeves, I wonder if any other very partisan states with gerrymandered legislative districts will try to amend their constitutions to allow this?  Are there any states where the state constitution be amended without a statewide referendum at any point in the process?

Edit: Delaware is the only state that allows the legislature to amend the constitution without holding a referendum, and it requires passing by a 2/3rds majority, which Democrats there do not have.  So looks like this wouldn't lead to shenanigans elsewhere.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #29 on: May 18, 2019, 05:50:38 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.
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Deeply Disturbing
jk2020
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« Reply #30 on: May 18, 2019, 07:41:18 pm »

JBeshood
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lfromnj
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« Reply #31 on: May 18, 2019, 07:44:01 pm »

Possibly a chance for not JBE.

Liberal NO D runs due to JBE's position on abortion and splits D vote to a small degree in November resulting in a low turnout runoff in Nov.
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