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August 24, 2019, 07:03:27 am
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  Hood or JBE or Beshear
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Poll
Question: Which Democratic presumptive gubernatorial nominee has the best chance of winning the most votes in their contest in 2019?
#1Jim Hood  
#2John Bel Edwards  
#3Andy Beshear  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 86

Author Topic: Hood or JBE or Beshear  (Read 1027 times)
Mizzouian
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« on: May 10, 2019, 03:56:50 pm »

I actually think itís Hood. I think he has about even odds or better of winning the popular vote in his state unlike most people on Atlas. But heíll still lose anyway since the courts will steal his election from him with the electoral college abomination. Thereís no way Hood wins the most districts in the gubernatorial race even if he wins by a few points.
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« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2019, 03:58:03 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.
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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2019, 04:04:00 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.
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« Reply #3 on: May 10, 2019, 04:06:42 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, theyíre both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (thatís not to say that Beshear should be counted out).
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Politician stands with Sanchez
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« Reply #4 on: May 10, 2019, 04:14:15 pm »

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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2019, 04:20:26 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, theyíre both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (thatís not to say that Beshear should be counted out).

My thinking goes as this: MS has a much higher Democratic floor than the other states and Hood is the only one of the three who has a track record of deep crossover support and easily winning in tough conditions. JBEís solo 2015 win was almost solely due to his opponent being Vitter and the Jindal administartionís unpopularity, so I would hardly call that running in anything as tough as Jim Hoodís been through with a truck driver leading his ticket

Thatís what I figured, but you could just as well argue that Hood has never really won a high-profile race before (although Iím aware that he can still win even if he loses something like 60% of his crossover appeal due to the high D floor and off-year turnout dynamics). I guess it boils down to whether you believe JBEís incumbency advantage matters or not. If LA was an open seat, Iíd agree with you that Hood would have a better chance, and obviously Democrats are more likely to win a Senate race in MS than in LA.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2019, 04:50:17 pm »

If democrats are going to win any of the three...it would be Louisiana.
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2019, 05:06:49 pm »

Louisiana, easily. If inelasticity is destiny, why would Hood be any less doomed than JBE? I'm pretty sure a popular incumbent governor will do better than a Democratic challenger in an open race, even if he doesn't end up winning.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2019, 05:08:00 pm »

JBE probably avoids run-off and wins with 57%
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2019, 05:10:07 pm »

Easily JBE, but I think he'll lose.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2019, 05:13:47 pm »

He won't lose, he is ahead in every matchup
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2019, 06:08:01 pm »

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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2019, 06:30:39 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

According to the polls does Andy Beshear have the best chances, and it's not even close.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2019, 08:46:06 pm »

Obviously JBE.
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« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2019, 08:47:15 pm »

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« Reply #15 on: May 10, 2019, 08:57:10 pm »

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Ἅιδης
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« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2019, 09:18:20 pm »


Kentucky: Andy Beshear (D) 48% vs. Matt Bevin (R) 40% vs. undecided 12% (Dec 12Ė15, 2018)

Louisiana: John Bel Edwards (D) 40% vs. Ralph Abraham (R) 36% vs. undecided 24% (Apr 25Ė29, 2019)

Mississippi: Jim Hood (D) 44% vs. Tate Reeves (R) 42% vs. undecided 14% (Jan 30 Ė Feb 1, 2019)
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gracile
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« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2019, 09:33:54 pm »

^You really shouldn't take polls at face value - especially for KY where polling in the past has skewed heavily Democratic compared to the final result.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2019, 12:24:18 am »

JBE. Whether that will be enough - another question...
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2019, 12:25:00 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

According to the polls does Andy Beshear have the best chances, and it's not even close.
Governor Conway agrees with this methodology.
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2019, 01:01:14 am »

JBE-Hood-Beshear, but all 3 will win
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PSOL
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2019, 08:40:31 am »

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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2019, 04:21:01 pm »

JBE easily.

Lmao at "but Beshear is up by more in a poll taken a full year out from the election!"
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2019, 04:38:14 pm »

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Nyvin
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« Reply #24 on: May 18, 2019, 05:31:17 pm »

The State House districts as electoral college thing in MS (which Hood would surely lose if it holds up in court) only applies if no one has a majority of the statewide vote.  Is there a serious 3rd party candidate running? 

Mississippi doesn't vote third party much,  so the chances of the state house college thing actually affecting the outcome is quite low.
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