Hood or JBE or Beshear (user search)
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  Hood or JBE or Beshear (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which Democratic presumptive gubernatorial nominee has the best chance of winning the most votes in their contest in 2019?
#1
Jim Hood
 
#2
John Bel Edwards
 
#3
Andy Beshear
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 86

Author Topic: Hood or JBE or Beshear  (Read 1921 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« on: May 10, 2019, 03:58:03 PM »

JBE obviously, and it’s not even close.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2019, 04:06:42 PM »

JBE obviously, and it’s not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, they’re both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (that’s not to say that Beshear should be counted out).
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2019, 04:20:26 PM »

JBE obviously, and it’s not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, they’re both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (that’s not to say that Beshear should be counted out).

My thinking goes as this: MS has a much higher Democratic floor than the other states and Hood is the only one of the three who has a track record of deep crossover support and easily winning in tough conditions. JBE’s solo 2015 win was almost solely due to his opponent being Vitter and the Jindal administartion’s unpopularity, so I would hardly call that running in anything as tough as Jim Hood’s been through with a truck driver leading his ticket

That’s what I figured, but you could just as well argue that Hood has never really won a high-profile race before (although I’m aware that he can still win even if he loses something like 60% of his crossover appeal due to the high D floor and off-year turnout dynamics). I guess it boils down to whether you believe JBE’s incumbency advantage matters or not. If LA was an open seat, I’d agree with you that Hood would have a better chance, and obviously Democrats are more likely to win a Senate race in MS than in LA.
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