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August 24, 2019, 06:43:56 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  Hood or JBE or Beshear (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which Democratic presumptive gubernatorial nominee has the best chance of winning the most votes in their contest in 2019?
#1Jim Hood  
#2John Bel Edwards  
#3Andy Beshear  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 86

Author Topic: Hood or JBE or Beshear  (Read 1022 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: May 10, 2019, 03:58:03 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.
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MT Treasurer
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P P P
« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2019, 04:06:42 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, theyíre both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (thatís not to say that Beshear should be counted out).
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MT Treasurer
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Posts: 13,027
United States


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« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2019, 04:20:26 pm »

JBE obviously, and itís not even close.

I thought you were pretty pessimistic about R chances in MS

I think MS is a Tossup/maybe Tilt D, but I still think LA is more winnable for Democrats than MS, if only because JBE is the popular incumbent running for reelection. Like I said though, theyíre both more likely to win than Beshear, if you ask me (thatís not to say that Beshear should be counted out).

My thinking goes as this: MS has a much higher Democratic floor than the other states and Hood is the only one of the three who has a track record of deep crossover support and easily winning in tough conditions. JBEís solo 2015 win was almost solely due to his opponent being Vitter and the Jindal administartionís unpopularity, so I would hardly call that running in anything as tough as Jim Hoodís been through with a truck driver leading his ticket

Thatís what I figured, but you could just as well argue that Hood has never really won a high-profile race before (although Iím aware that he can still win even if he loses something like 60% of his crossover appeal due to the high D floor and off-year turnout dynamics). I guess it boils down to whether you believe JBEís incumbency advantage matters or not. If LA was an open seat, Iíd agree with you that Hood would have a better chance, and obviously Democrats are more likely to win a Senate race in MS than in LA.
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