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  Which GOP Governor elected in 2018 will lose in 2022 ?
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Question: GOP Governor elected in 2018 likely to lose in 2022
#1GA Governor Brian Kemp (R)  
#2IA Governor Kim Reynolds (R)  
#3AK Governor Mike Dunleavy (R)  
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Total Voters: 53

Author Topic: Which GOP Governor elected in 2018 will lose in 2022 ?  (Read 958 times)
LoneStarDem
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« on: May 10, 2019, 09:05:23 pm »

Which one of the GOP Governor's will likely lose in 2022 ?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2019, 01:20:13 am »

Kemp is the most vulnerable even if he stays popular. I expect GA 2022 to look a lot like a Democratic version of 2002.
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« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2019, 01:44:02 am »

GA>IA>AK
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2019, 02:18:43 am »
« Edited: May 11, 2019, 02:24:10 am by Old School Republican »

If Trump is reelected: Georgia

If a Democrat is elected: Likely None , but Iowa


I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #4 on: May 11, 2019, 02:25:23 am »

If a Democrat is elected: Likely None , but Iowa

LMAO

Iowa is no where near as Republican as you claim just like NH wasnt as anywhere near as Dem as you claimed. The reasons are simple, both are pretty elastic states a concept you mock.


Georgia just isnt there for a Dem to win with a Dem Presidency, as Dems have to turnout huge for them to win Georiga and I dont see that happening with a Dem in the WH
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Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: May 11, 2019, 08:47:31 am »

Georgia

But FL, TX, AZ are all possible under a GOP presidency
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #6 on: May 11, 2019, 09:57:18 am »

Brian P. Kemp.

Doesnít matter if Trump is re-elected. Abrams operation is designed to get low propensity Democrats out and the race will no doubt get massive attention.
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Skunk
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« Reply #7 on: May 11, 2019, 11:34:22 am »

Kemp is easily the most likely, I don't know why this is even a question lol.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #8 on: May 11, 2019, 01:01:33 pm »

Dunleavy is the likeliest just by virtue of Alaska being ungovernable.

Guessing there's a reason why Tony Knowles (D) was the last AK Governor to serve 2 full terms.

Since then:
Daddy Murkowski (R), 2002-2006: lost BIGLY in GOP Primary in 2006.

Sarah Palin (R), 2006-2009: resigned for some weird reason. We still don't know why she upped & quit.

Sean Parnell (R), 2009-2014: served out the remainder of Palin's term & won election to full term in 2010 landslide; lost reelection in 2014.

Bill Walker (Ind), 2014-2018: didn't seek reelection in 2018.

Mike Dunleavy (R), 2018-
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Dangerous Communist Andrew Yang
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« Reply #9 on: May 11, 2019, 06:27:26 pm »

Dunleavy is the likeliest just by virtue of Alaska being ungovernable.

Guessing there's a reason why Tony Knowles (D) was the last AK Governor to serve 2 full terms.

Since then:
Daddy Murkowski (R), 2002-2006: lost BIGLY in GOP Primary in 2006.

Sarah Palin (R), 2006-2009: resigned for some weird reason. We still don't know why she upped & quit.

Sean Parnell (R), 2009-2014: served out the remainder of Palin's term & won election to full term in 2010 landslide; lost reelection in 2014.

Bill Walker (Ind), 2014-2018: didn't seek reelection in 2018.

Mike Dunleavy (R), 2018-

Aren't the oil prices in Alaska all over the place and everyone always blames the governor? Probably why Palin quit; can't continue to build a national profile if you get hit with a wave of unpopularity back home.
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2019, 07:41:01 pm »

If a Democrat is elected: Likely None , but Iowa

LMAO

Iowa is no where near as Republican as you claim just like NH wasnt as anywhere near as Dem as you claimed. The reasons are simple, both are pretty elastic states a concept you mock.


Georgia just isnt there for a Dem to win with a Dem Presidency, as Dems have to turnout huge for them to win Georiga and I dont see that happening with a Dem in the WH

Youíre kidding yourself if you seriously believe that Reynolds is more likely to lose than Kemp in a Biden midterm, no matter how relentlessly you continue to shout vague buzzwords such as polarization or elasticity at the top of your lungs.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #11 on: May 11, 2019, 07:43:01 pm »

Dunleavy, just because Alaska is totally tied to oil prices and essentially ungovernable.
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« Reply #12 on: May 11, 2019, 07:44:31 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2019, 07:53:57 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Cite your sources, man. Tongue Anyway, I wouldn't call Kemp safe at all in a Democratic midterm, especially if he's unpopular. It's probably going to be close regardless of who's president, since I think Georgia's going to be consistently close for the next several cycles (like Florida, though moving leftward.)
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2019, 08:01:44 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Cite your sources, man. Tongue Anyway, I wouldn't call Kemp safe at all in a Democratic midterm, especially if he's unpopular. It's probably going to be close regardless of who's president, since I think Georgia's going to be consistently close for the next several cycles (like Florida, though moving leftward.)

Agreed
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2019, 08:02:35 pm »

GA>AK>IA imo
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2019, 08:11:36 pm »

Cite your sources, man. Tongue Anyway, I wouldn't call Kemp safe at all in a Democratic midterm, especially if he's unpopular. It's probably going to be close regardless of who's president, since I think Georgia's going to be consistently close for the next several cycles (like Florida, though moving leftward.)

Oops, good catch. Wink Yeah, I donít get why he thinks that a VA GOP 2009 redux is feasible for Kemp when even Deal won by the same margin as Romney in a GOP wave year. "Inelasticity" cuts both ways, it doesnít just benefit Republicans.
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Let Dogs Survive
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2019, 08:17:09 pm »

DeSantis is a very underrated pick here. While he's definitely off to a better start than Scott, his strong Trump allegiance could be a liability in a 6 year-itch.

It wasn't "D+9" for Governors, it was D+2, and Florida always seems to require at least D+3 to flip. And just like 2014 was quite a lot more R than 2010, a Trump win in 2020 is very likely to ensure 2022 is D+3 or more.

But the answer here is Kemp.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2019, 10:04:46 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2019, 12:59:39 am »

GA-IA-AK
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Dangerous Communist Andrew Yang
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2019, 08:41:27 am »

Torn between Kemp and Dunleavy. Alaska is an elastic state and oil prices cause governors to frequently become unpopular etc. But Kemp only won by a point and a half, and he's not currently acting like it.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2019, 08:55:39 am »

Kemp, especially in a Trump midterm.
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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2019, 01:21:11 pm »

Kemp is gonna be fine, IA is worrisome for Reynolds, look at the polling in IA, thus far.
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« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2019, 02:47:15 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 

Thereís really no way Republicans lose IA in an environment in which GA trends back to being solid R, even if itís just for one more time.
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #24 on: May 12, 2019, 04:05:04 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 
The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.
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