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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  Which GOP Governor elected in 2018 will lose in 2022 ?
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Question: GOP Governor elected in 2018 likely to lose in 2022
#1GA Governor Brian Kemp (R)  
#2IA Governor Kim Reynolds (R)  
#3AK Governor Mike Dunleavy (R)  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 58

Author Topic: Which GOP Governor elected in 2018 will lose in 2022 ?  (Read 1099 times)
LoneStarDem
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« Reply #25 on: May 12, 2019, 05:29:42 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 
The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Let's not forget about the Latino & Asian/Pacific Islander populations as well.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #26 on: May 12, 2019, 06:51:25 pm »

I see Reynolds as the most vulnerable, although I think all will be re-elected in 2022.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #27 on: May 12, 2019, 07:19:47 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 
The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.


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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: May 12, 2019, 07:51:34 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 
The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.

"Democrats need huge turnout to do well in elections." Well, duh. Clinton was hardly an inspiring candidate and still kept the state within five points.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #29 on: May 12, 2019, 08:00:14 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 
The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.

"Democrats need huge turnout to do well in elections." Well, duh. Clinton was hardly an inspiring candidate and still kept the state within five points.


In a Presidential Year, not in a Midterm. A Midterm with a Dem as President will cause low turnout and in states like Georgia that means a loss unless the Republicans basically commit and own goal or or the Dems have an incumbent, Which is why Dems barely scrapped by in Virginia in 2013 and 2014 . If Bill Bollings was the nominee in 2013 or Mark Warner retired in 2014 Dems lose both those races cause of turnout problems.

Clinton still got significantly higher turnout among the base then the Dems did in 2010 and 2014
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #30 on: May 12, 2019, 08:08:27 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns 
The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.
Dems got 46 percent in a D+4 presidential and 45 percent in a R+6 midterm. GA is inelastic and the non-white vote is only growing. The dam can break in 2022 with a Dem President. Especially with a figure like Abrams as the nominee.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #31 on: May 12, 2019, 08:12:32 pm »

I think if a Dem is elected GA 2022 may be like VA 2009.

Computer: "GA is inelastic, there are zero persuadable voters there, Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 48.8%"

Also Computer: "Kemp could easily win by 18 points in a R-friendly midterm."

Pick one.

Ok I didnít mean a landslide  but the analogy is a dem trending state that trends back temporarily like one or a second to last time to its old patterns  
The black people who live here aren't going away. Georgia is done for the GOP. No wishing that it will trend backwards one more time will change that.

Dems still need huge turnout to win in GA and in a Dem Midterm they wont get that turnout.
Dems got 46 percent in a D+4 presidential and 45 percent in a R+6 midterm. GA is inelastic and the non-white vote is only growing. The dam can break in 2022 with a Dem President. Especially with a figure like Abrams as the nominee.

Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #32 on: May 12, 2019, 08:21:51 pm »

"Democrats need huge turnout to do well in elections." Well, duh. Clinton was hardly an inspiring candidate and still kept the state within five points.

In a Presidential Year, not in a Midterm. A Midterm with a Dem as President will cause low turnout and in states like Georgia that means a loss unless the Republicans basically commit and own goal or or the Dems have an incumbent, Which is why Dems barely scrapped by in Virginia in 2013 and 2014 . If Bill Bollings was the nominee in 2013 or Mark Warner retired in 2014 Dems lose both those races cause of turnout problems.

Clinton still got significantly higher turnout among the base then the Dems did in 2010 and 2014

And in "states like Iowa" that means a win?

Remember I said the answer is likely none of the states will flip. And yes Dems can win low turnout elections in Iowa because there are more swing voters in Iowa than in Georgia. In a swing or leaning state like Georiga, elections are decided by turnout while in states like Iowa and New Hampshire they are decided by Swing Voters




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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #33 on: May 12, 2019, 08:30:48 pm »

Remember I said the answer is likely none of the states will flip. And yes Dems can win low turnout elections in Iowa because there are more swing voters in Iowa than in Georgia. In a swing or leaning state like Georiga, elections are decided by turnout while in states like Iowa and New Hampshire they are decided by Swing Voters

Brad Raffensperger (R) won a low-turnout runoff by four points even though he managed a tie in places like Cobb and Gwinnett County, something Trump and literally any Republican running statewide can only dream of. Not exactly a reassuring sign for the GA GOPís ability to win future elections. There might be more "swing voters" in Iowa than Georgia, but that really doesnít mean much when (a) Iowa is consistently several points more Republican than Georgia (and that includes statewide/Senate races), (b) Iowa is trending Republican while Georgia is trending Democratic at a rapid pace, (c) Democrats have been inching closer and closer to 50% in GA regardless of national environment over the past decade.
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #34 on: May 12, 2019, 08:51:56 pm »


Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.
Huh? The argument from the Republicans on this forum is always about the national environment now it's about whether or not the state was contested? Carter/Nunn definitely did NOT contest the state as hard as Abrams did. They did not try to turn out low propensity voters of color they spent their energy on reliable "independent" whites. GA is getting less white by the second and white suburbans are abandoning the GA GOP. GOP won a low turnout runoff by 4 points. A mid to high turnout general election in 2022 is a tossup.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #35 on: May 12, 2019, 09:59:59 pm »


Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.
Huh? The argument from the Republicans on this forum is always about the national environment now it's about whether or not the state was contested? Carter/Nunn definitely did NOT contest the state as hard as Abrams did. They did not try to turn out low propensity voters of color they spent their energy on reliable "independent" whites. GA is getting less white by the second and white suburbans are abandoning the GA GOP. GOP won a low turnout runoff by 4 points. A mid to high turnout general election in 2022 is a tossup.


It wonít be with a dem in the WH is exactly what I am trying to say lol
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Unbeatable Titan Ralph Abraham
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« Reply #36 on: May 13, 2019, 09:03:56 am »

Remember I said the answer is likely none of the states will flip. And yes Dems can win low turnout elections in Iowa because there are more swing voters in Iowa than in Georgia. In a swing or leaning state like Georiga, elections are decided by turnout while in states like Iowa and New Hampshire they are decided by Swing Voters

Brad Raffensperger (R) won a low-turnout runoff by four points even though he managed a tie in places like Cobb and Gwinnett County, something Trump and literally any Republican running statewide can only dream of. Not exactly a reassuring sign for the GA GOPís ability to win future elections. There might be more "swing voters" in Iowa than Georgia, but that really doesnít mean much when (a) Iowa is consistently several points more Republican than Georgia (and that includes statewide/Senate races), (b) Iowa is trending Republican while Georgia is trending Democratic at a rapid pace, (c) Democrats have been inching closer and closer to 50% in GA regardless of national environment over the past decade.
So what? Rural white turnout was low in that runoff too and the Democrats had a white Blue Dog as their nominee who did way better than Abrams in rural areas.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #37 on: May 13, 2019, 11:27:44 am »

So what? Rural white turnout was low in that runoff too and the Democrats had a white Blue Dog as their nominee who did way better than Abrams in rural areas.

Except he really didnít do way better than Abrams in rural areas. He even did a few points worse than her in some rural counties, and where he outperformed her, the difference was negligible.
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #38 on: May 13, 2019, 11:40:57 am »

John Barrow only outperformed her in his old congressional district....
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #39 on: May 13, 2019, 11:41:49 am »


Yes cause in 2012 The Atlanta Suburbs were Solidly Republican so it didnt matter if that area turned out or not. Also Des didnt contest the state at all in 2012 while they did in 2014, if it was uncontested in 2014 they lose by even a larger margin


Now they need the turnout to win , the Dam will break only with Trump as President.
Huh? The argument from the Republicans on this forum is always about the national environment now it's about whether or not the state was contested? Carter/Nunn definitely did NOT contest the state as hard as Abrams did. They did not try to turn out low propensity voters of color they spent their energy on reliable "independent" whites. GA is getting less white by the second and white suburbans are abandoning the GA GOP. GOP won a low turnout runoff by 4 points. A mid to high turnout general election in 2022 is a tossup.


It wonít be with a dem in the WH is exactly what I am trying to say lol
I donít believe that so I guess we will see in three years.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #40 on: May 13, 2019, 02:27:28 pm »

Torn between Kemp and Dunleavy. Alaska is an elastic state and oil prices cause governors to frequently become unpopular etc. But Kemp only won by a point and a half, and he's not currently acting like it.

Honestly this. Gun to my head, though, I'll go with the slightest tilt Kemp, if only because Abrams has already proven herself able to massively overperform in a very hostile red state, even without a Democratic base that feels she was robbed & will not only easily give her the nomination again, but whose low propensity voters will go a great deal toward sending her to the Governor's Mansion.

Dunleavy is the likeliest just by virtue of Alaska being ungovernable.

Guessing there's a reason why Tony Knowles (D) was the last AK Governor to serve 2 full terms.

Since then:
Daddy Murkowski (R), 2002-2006: lost BIGLY in GOP Primary in 2006.

Sarah Palin (R), 2006-2009: resigned for some weird reason. We still don't know why she upped & quit.

Sean Parnell (R), 2009-2014: served out the remainder of Palin's term & won election to full term in 2010 landslide; lost reelection in 2014.

Bill Walker (Ind), 2014-2018: didn't seek reelection in 2018.

Mike Dunleavy (R), 2018-

And hell, even when Knowles himself sought a third, non-consecutive term as governor in the Democratic-friendly year of 2006, he lost by 7 points to some then-unknown small town mayor who was the nominee of the party whose then-incumbent governor's approval ratings were in the tubes... god, was Sarah Palin lucky from 2006-08.

Also, Palin resigned (in addition to being targeted in ethics probes) because she's a whiny conservative quitter who had absolutely zero interest in running the State of Alaska (both before & after going national) & couldn't answer the door fast enough when the opportunity for making a huge amount of money knocked.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #41 on: May 14, 2019, 10:11:53 am »

Kemp
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« Reply #42 on: June 19, 2019, 07:19:02 am »
« Edited: Today at 05:53:34 am by Epaminondas »

Codger Brian Kemp will run out of luck. No surprise if Sununu and DeSantis lose also, their margins in 2018 were not safe. If JBE loses in Louisiana, I'd add Laura Kelly to the list.

A Midterm with a Dem as President will cause low turnout and in states like Georgia that means a loss
Trump has changed everything. Low attendance midterms may well be a thing of the past now that young voters have wised up to GOP's all-engulfing nihilism.

Back in 2014, when 35M voted Dem in the House, would you have imagined that the following midterms would bring over 60M Dem voters to the polls? That's +70%.

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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #43 on: June 19, 2019, 08:21:21 am »

No GOP gov or Dem Gov is vulnerable.  NH and VT are the only states where inc Govs have maxed out their stay. Sununu may not win in 2020 or run against Hassan in 2022.

Abrams blew her chance to run for Senate, GA is an R state. If anyone loses, Phil Scott and Desantis
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #44 on: June 19, 2019, 07:50:57 pm »

all will likely win, even if trump is reelected, recent polls have shown that Kemp has gotten more popular (and Abrams less popular) since the election. Abrams has hurt herself politically with her conspiracy theories over the last election
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Policy Bae
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« Reply #45 on: June 19, 2019, 09:43:44 pm »

Abrams has hurt herself politically with her conspiracy theories over the last election
Fake news.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #46 on: Today at 12:56:28 am »

Reynolds is probably the most likely, but I don't think that any of them will.
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