Poll of battleground states

[Frenchrepublican]

All I know is that someone or all are gonna have egg on their face. There’s no way Biden is losing WI by 4 while winning Texas by 1 and AZ by 5

Trump is winning Texas by 7 points in this poll

Okay? And he's tied with or losing to Biden in two other polls there. One of these polls is going to be dramatically off, if not most of them.

I have a hard time believing that Biden would win Texas

[Person Man]

I think this is probably the best case for Trump but probably the most likely if nothing bad happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leave it to a GOP pollster to have Trump ahead in WI, if Biden is the nominee or even Sanders, WI will vote Democratic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What OP omitted from this post is that these polls are from an Republican pollster.  TRASH.

[ProudModerate2]

Only on this forum would you find people trying to meticulously analyse a crappy internal poll a year and a half before the election

What OP omitted from this post is that these polls are from an Republican pollster.  TRASH.

[LiberalDem19]

Trump's approval is only 5 points better in rural areas than in suburbs? (Even with TX included) Wow.

That's not completely out of the realm of possibility. I seem to remeber reading that the 2016--> 2018 swings were strongest in rural areas, it just doesn't seem that way as the flips were all from battleground suburbs moving a few to the left and flipping.

e.x.
MN-03 (suburb)--> Clinton +10 to Walz +12
MN-08 (Iron Range)--> Trump +16 to Johnson +1

[LiberalDem19]

I do think Biden is one of the few Democratic candidates who would do noticeably worse in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, but it wouldn't be a 7-point gap.

Why? If anything, he is the only one who could keep the margins similar.

Wisconsin tends to vote for more progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans.

How do you explain Feingold doing worse than Clinton?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems aren't gonna believe a GOP pollster that has Trump winning WI

[Xing]

I do think Biden is one of the few Democratic candidates who would do noticeably worse in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, but it wouldn't be a 7-point gap.

Why? If anything, he is the only one who could keep the margins similar.

Wisconsin tends to vote for more progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans.

How do you explain Feingold doing worse than Clinton?

Same reason other Democrats did worse than Clinton. "Moderates" who voted for Clinton, but the Republican downballot to put a "check" on the inevitable President Clinton. Plus, Feingold and the DSCC were pretty much sleepwalking through the majority of 2016, thinking they had the race in the bag, while Johnson pumped tons of his own money into the race.

[ON Progressive]

I do think Biden is one of the few Democratic candidates who would do noticeably worse in Wisconsin than Michigan or Pennsylvania, but it wouldn't be a 7-point gap.

Why? If anything, he is the only one who could keep the margins similar.

Wisconsin tends to vote for more progressive Democrats and conservative Republicans.

How do you explain Feingold doing worse than Clinton?

Same reason other Democrats did worse than Clinton. "Moderates" who voted for Clinton, but the Republican downballot to put a "check" on the inevitable President Clinton. Plus, Feingold and the DSCC were pretty much sleepwalking through the majority of 2016, thinking they had the race in the bag, while Johnson pumped tons of his own money into the race.

Also, Ron Johnson is the exact kind of "conservative Republican" that you mentioned.

[OneJ]

Probably biased for Republicans, but even with that bias, it should be clear that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are essentially tossups. Texas and Iowa are leaning Republican, and I don't think anyone will know what will happen in Florida until polls close on election day.

WPA is a fairly reliable pollster even if they are usually working for conservative candidates (anyway they are far more trustable than PPP or McLaughlin)

Isn’t that a kind of hackish thing to do by trusting a WPA internal for the GOP over PPP, which is by all means not a bad pollster either but also a slight R bias. Also, PPP conducts public polls as well as internals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will add onto what Hilary did in 2016 and flip WI back.