Predict the 2024 election

[Spark]

Will it be an open election year?

Use infoboxes and maps. Also pick most likely candidates for both sides if possible.

Rs:

Mike Pence
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley

Ds:

Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom
Gretchen Whitmer

[President Johnson]

Joe Biden elected in 2020:

✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/HUD Secretary Peter Buttigieg (D-IN): ca. 280 EV. (49.81%)
Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO): ca. 260 EV. (47.05%)


Donald Trump reelected:

✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): ca. 400 EV. (54.21%)
Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): ca. 140 EV. (44.87%)

[Cold War Liberal]

✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): ca. 400 EV. (54.21%)
Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): ca. 140 EV. (44.87%)

N U T

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Joe Biden elected in 2020:

✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/HUD Secretary Peter Buttigieg (D-IN): ca. 280 EV. (49.81%)
Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO): ca. 260 EV. (47.05%)


Donald Trump reelected:

✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): ca. 400 EV. (54.21%)
Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): ca. 140 EV. (44.87%)

If the Democratic nominee is winning over 400 electoral votes, they're certainly winning Ohio.

[😥]

2020 results:

Frm. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 359 EVs, 52,8% PV
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 179 EVs, 43,8% PV

Joe Biden run for a second term

President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 290 EVs, 49,4% PV
Frm. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) 248 EVs, 45,8% PV

Joe Biden elected in 2020, retired in 2024

Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Frm. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) 293 EVs, 48,5% PV
Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)/Senator Steve Bullock (D-MT) 245 EVs, 46,9% PV

Trump reelected in 2020

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Governor Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 413 EVs, 53,8% PV
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)/Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) 125 EVs, 41,9% PV

[Frodo]

If Trump is re-elected narrowly next year, and suffers economic calamity in his second term along with a foreign policy crisis -a definite landslide for Democrats, especially considering that every year more of Trump's base keeps dying off or become too senile to get to the ballot-box.  Enough of them may still be alive and conscious enough to give Trump one more term, but for those Republicans following in his wake?  

God help them.....  

[MT Treasurer]

Trump reelected in 2020

Sen. Kamala Harris (D) 362 EV, 53%
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 176 EV, 44%

States decided by 1.5% or less: FL, MI, ME

Trump loses to Biden in 2020

Sen. Kamala Harris (D) 269 EV, 50.7%
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 269 EV, 46.8%

? ? ? ?

States decided by 1.5% or less: TX (recount), NC (recount), PA (recount), FL, NH, MN

[brucejoel99]

Biden runs for re-election, facing (& defeating) Pence.

[Epaminondas]

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

[Grassroots]

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

[Epaminondas]

I get the logic regarding Pennsylvania.

But for the others 3, there's a numbers problem. The GOP gained 160k votes, dwarfed by a Dem collapse of 750k.
Only in Michigan did Trump improve at all over Romney in raw numbers, yet he still didn't overtake Obama 2012.
In Minnesota and Wisconsin, the 2016 GOP numbers were the same or lower as 2012.

Are Rust Belt countries bleeding population so quickly that losing votes to your predecessor in a higher turnout election is considered a positive trend?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

1). Populism is a meaningless term
2). Trump is perhaps the most neoliberal president in history on everything not relating to trade, and the vast majority of Republican politicians are just as neoliberal (if not more neoliberal) than he is.

[TrumpBritt24]

2020 - President Donald Trump/Vice President Mike Pence (R) defeat Former Vice President Joe Biden/Senator Kamala Harris (D)

2024 - Senator Stacey Abrams/Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) defeat Governor Ron DeSantis/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R)

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Indiana voting to the left of Virginia? Whatever you're smoking, I want some.

[Politician]

Indiana voting to the left of Virginia? Whatever you're smoking, I want some.

None of Kander2020's maps make any sense. He unironically thought Goldwater would win TX and MT against Johnson if he supported the Civil Rights Act, so, yeah...

[Sir Mohamed]

Assuming either Joe Biden is elected prez in 2020 (Scenario I) or Trump reelected against the former VP (Scenrio II). All in current electoral votes.

I

✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC): 310 EVs.; 50.3%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA): 228 EVs.; 47.2%



II

✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): 355 EVs.; 53.0%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA): 183 EVs.; 45.8%

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

[RINO Tom]

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

I mean Reagan never advocated a family leave program or for the rich to pay more taxes, but sure. Trump is effectively controlled by McConnell and co. The best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances would be to join up with Dems on a PFL program or something. But he won't do that.

I mean, Trump just championed a tax cut for "the rich," no?

[Xing]

If Trump loses in 2020 (though it will largely depend on his opponent:

If Trump wins in 2020:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gavin Newsom, with the downfall of Harris campaign, has damaged his presidential prospects, anyways.

[Tekken_Guy]

Democrats (if Trump wins): Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Jared Polis, Kyrsten Sinema
Democrats (if Trump loses): The incumbent president/VP
Republicans (if Trump wins): Mike Pence
Republicans (if Trump loses): Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Rick Scott, Marsha Blackburn

[Ilhan Apologist]

If Trump wins in 2020:

I could see Texas going Democratic in that scenario.

[Ilhan Apologist]

As for the candidates:

Democrats (If Trump wins): Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez, Whitmer, Polis, Newsom, Walz, Sinema
Republicans (If Trump wins): Cruz, (Rick) Scott, Blackburn, Cotton, DeSantis, maybe Trump Jr
Democrats (If Trump loses): The incumbent president, unless it's Biden or Sanders. If not, the VP will run, with a possible challenge from AOC.
Republicans (If Trump loses): Pence, DeSantis, Cruz, Cotton, (Rick) Scott, Haley, Hogan, Blackburn, Crenshaw, again maybe Trump Jr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrats (if Trump wins won't be Gavin Newsom) It will Sherrod Brown
GOP if Biden win: Ted Cruz or Rand Paul

[progressive85]

It's a wild guess but:

DEMOCRATS- Pete Buttigieg and Stacey Abrams
REPUBLICANS- Mike Pence and Dan Crenshaw