Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 25, 2019, 08:36:37 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  Predict the 2024 election
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Predict the 2024 election  (Read 852 times)
Fmr Deputy Speaker Spark498
Spark498
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,291
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: 2.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 11, 2019, 09:36:57 pm »

Will it be an open election year?

Use infoboxes and maps. Also pick most likely candidates for both sides if possible.

Rs:

Mike Pence
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley

Ds:

Kamala Harris
Gavin Newsom
Gretchen Whitmer
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,700
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2019, 05:14:18 am »

Joe Biden elected in 2020:



✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/HUD Secretary Peter Buttigieg (D-IN): ca. 280 EV. (49.81%)
Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO): ca. 260 EV. (47.05%)


Donald Trump reelected:



✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): ca. 400 EV. (54.21%)
Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): ca. 140 EV. (44.87%)
Logged
Cold War Liberal
KennedyWannabe99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,259
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.53

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2019, 11:27:58 am »



✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): ca. 400 EV. (54.21%)
Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): ca. 140 EV. (44.87%)
N U T
Logged
🚫 Resist the False Song of Fascism 🚫
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,089


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2019, 12:28:31 pm »

Joe Biden elected in 2020:



✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/HUD Secretary Peter Buttigieg (D-IN): ca. 280 EV. (49.81%)
Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO): ca. 260 EV. (47.05%)


Donald Trump reelected:



✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Representative Colin Allred (D-TX): ca. 400 EV. (54.21%)
Vice President Michael R. Pence (R-IN)/Governor Ronald DeSantis (R-FL): ca. 140 EV. (44.87%)

If the Democratic nominee is winning over 400 electoral votes, they're certainly winning Ohio.
Logged
АndriуValeriovich
andjey
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,613
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2019, 12:58:36 pm »

2020 results:



Frm. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 359 EVs, 52,8% PV
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 179 EVs, 43,8% PV


Joe Biden run for a second term



President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) 290 EVs, 49,4% PV
Frm. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)/Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) 248 EVs, 45,8% PV


Joe Biden elected in 2020, retired in 2024



Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Frm. Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC) 293 EVs, 48,5% PV
Vice President Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)/Senator Steve Bullock (D-MT) 245 EVs, 46,9% PV


Trump reelected in 2020



Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Governor Stacey Abrams (D-GA) 413 EVs, 53,8% PV
Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)/Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) 125 EVs, 41,9% PV
Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,157
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2019, 01:09:12 pm »

If Trump is re-elected narrowly next year, and suffers economic calamity in his second term along with a foreign policy crisis -a definite landslide for Democrats, especially considering that every year more of Trump's base keeps dying off or become too senile to get to the ballot-box.  Enough of them may still be alive and conscious enough to give Trump one more term, but for those Republicans following in his wake?  

God help them.....  
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,589
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2019, 04:38:09 pm »
« Edited: May 12, 2019, 04:58:20 pm by Skill and Chance »

Trump reelected in 2020



Pete Buttigieg/Southern or Southwestern Dem elected statewide in 2022  53% ~380 EV
VP Mike Pence/Nikki Haley  44% ~158 EV

Trump loses to Biden in 2020



FL-GOV Ron DeSantis/Repub elected statewide in Upper Midwest in 2022  52% ~350 EV

VP Kamala Harris/MN-GOV Tim Walz 45% ~188 EV

Explanation: Would be extremely unlikely to get all the way to 2024 without economic problems developing. 
Logged
IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2019, 05:37:17 pm »
« Edited: May 12, 2019, 06:08:21 pm by IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ »

Trump reelected in 2020



Sen. Kamala Harris (D) 362 EV, 53%
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 176 EV, 44%

States decided by 1.5% or less: FL, MI, ME

Trump loses to Biden in 2020



Sen. Kamala Harris (D) 269 EV, 50.7%
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 269 EV, 46.8%

? ? ? ?

States decided by 1.5% or less: TX (recount), NC (recount), PA (recount), FL, NH, MN
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,589
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2019, 07:20:30 pm »

Occurs to me there is a very substantial chance PR would be a state by 2024 in the scenario where Trump loses. 
Logged
brucejoel99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,782
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 14, 2019, 11:32:40 pm »

Biden runs for re-election, facing (& defeating) Pence.
Logged
Epaminondas
Newbie
*
Posts: 19


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2019, 12:20:39 pm »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?
Logged
Grassr00ts
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,900
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 1.29, S: 0.70

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2019, 04:46:24 pm »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.
Logged
Epaminondas
Newbie
*
Posts: 19


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2019, 10:09:03 pm »

I get the logic regarding Pennsylvania.

But for the others 3, there's a numbers problem. The GOP gained 160k votes, dwarfed by a Dem collapse of 750k.
Only in Michigan did Trump improve at all over Romney in raw numbers, yet he still didn't overtake Obama 2012.
In Minnesota and Wisconsin, the 2016 GOP numbers were the same or lower as 2012.

Are Rust Belt countries bleeding population so quickly that losing votes to your predecessor in a higher turnout election is considered a positive trend?
Logged
🚫 Resist the False Song of Fascism 🚫
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,089


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2019, 11:14:32 pm »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

1). Populism is a meaningless term
2). Trump is perhaps the most neoliberal president in history on everything not relating to trade, and the vast majority of Republican politicians are just as neoliberal (if not more neoliberal) than he is.
Logged
MAGugh
Kander2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 851
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2019, 01:28:52 am »

2020 - President Donald Trump/Vice President Mike Pence (R) defeat Former Vice President Joe Biden/Senator Kamala Harris (D)


2024 - Senator Stacey Abrams/Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) defeat Governor Ron DeSantis/Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R)


Logged
The Unbearable Invincibility of Dan Bishop
Peebs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,966
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: -8.29

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2019, 05:53:07 am »

Indiana voting to the left of Virginia? Whatever you're smoking, I want some.
Logged
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,434
United States
Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2019, 06:37:30 am »

Indiana voting to the left of Virginia? Whatever you're smoking, I want some.

None of Kander2020's maps make any sense. He unironically thought Goldwater would win TX and MT against Johnson if he supported the Civil Rights Act, so, yeah...
Logged
TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,599
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2019, 07:22:14 am »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,086
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2019, 08:15:17 am »

Assuming either Joe Biden is elected prez in 2020 (Scenario I) or Trump reelected against the former VP (Scenrio II). All in current electoral votes.

I



✓ Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor Roy Cooper (D-NC): 310 EVs.; 50.3%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA): 228 EVs.; 47.2%



II



✓ Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): 355 EVs.; 53.0%
Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA): 183 EVs.; 45.8%
Logged
🚫 Resist the False Song of Fascism 🚫
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,089


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2019, 09:38:17 am »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.
Logged
TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,599
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2019, 11:35:18 am »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

I mean Reagan never advocated a family leave program or for the rich to pay more taxes, but sure. Trump is effectively controlled by McConnell and co. The best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances would be to join up with Dems on a PFL program or something. But he won't do that.
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,515
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2019, 11:47:07 am »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

I mean Reagan never advocated a family leave program or for the rich to pay more taxes, but sure. Trump is effectively controlled by McConnell and co. The best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances would be to join up with Dems on a PFL program or something. But he won't do that.

I mean, Trump just championed a tax cut for "the rich," no?
Logged
TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,599
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2019, 05:15:49 pm »

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

I mean Reagan never advocated a family leave program or for the rich to pay more taxes, but sure. Trump is effectively controlled by McConnell and co. The best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances would be to join up with Dems on a PFL program or something. But he won't do that.

I mean, Trump just championed a tax cut for "the rich," no?

True but when has he ever been consistent
Logged
TX more competitive than OH
Mizzouian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,599
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2019, 05:17:31 pm »

Trump reelected in 2020



Sen. Kamala Harris (D) 362 EV, 53%
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 176 EV, 44%

States decided by 1.5% or less: FL, MI, ME

Trump loses to Biden in 2020



Sen. Kamala Harris (D) 269 EV, 50.7%
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) 269 EV, 46.8%

? ? ? ?

States decided by 1.5% or less: TX (recount), NC (recount), PA (recount), FL, NH, MN

Anyway probably something like this with WI and Mi being Dem in map 1. If Trump wins re-election next year, 2024 will almost definitely be a Dem landslide. Doubt it’d be Harris as the nominee though.
Logged
The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16,573
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 17, 2019, 05:33:25 pm »

If Trump loses in 2020 (though it will largely depend on his opponent:



If Trump wins in 2020:

Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC