Predict the 2024 election

[Epaminondas]

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

[Epaminondas]

I get the logic regarding Pennsylvania.

But for the others 3, there's a numbers problem. The GOP gained 160k votes, dwarfed by a Dem collapse of 750k.
Only in Michigan did Trump improve at all over Romney in raw numbers, yet he still didn't overtake Obama 2012.
In Minnesota and Wisconsin, the 2016 GOP numbers were the same or lower as 2012.

Are Rust Belt countries bleeding population so quickly that losing votes to your predecessor in a higher turnout election is considered a positive trend?