Which happens first?

[Sestak]

Genuinely curious what Atlas thinks here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Obviously Virginia voting R

[President Johnson]

Virginia votes Republican.

Some John Kasich type would win Virginia over a Sanders Democrat.

[MT Treasurer]

Much, much easier to envision a plausible path for a Democratic candidate in MO (requires population growth + an utter Republican collapse in support in the Kansas City/St. Louis areas). VA is about as likely to vote for a Republican for president as MD.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Much, much easier to envision a plausible path for a Democratic candidate in MO (requires population growth + an utter Republican collapse in support in the Kansas City/St. Louis areas). VA is about as likely to vote for a Republican for president as MD.

LMAO

[MT Treasurer]

Much, much easier to envision a plausible path for a Democratic candidate in MO (requires population growth + an utter Republican collapse in support in the Kansas City/St. Louis areas). VA is about as likely to vote for a Republican for president as MD.

I mostly agree with this.  It's an elasticity issue.  Southern states seem to only flip once every 30+ years and when they go they are quickly gone at every level.  Midwestern states can more easily go for the "wrong" party in a landslide win even if it doesn't mean any kind of long term trend (IN 2008, MO 1980's). 

Also think there's a more plausible path for the GOP to flip MD than VA.  Hogan #'s in the rural areas + Baltimore starts to swing like the Detroit area. 

I’m glad there’s someone else here who agrees with me on this. Obviously not saying that it will happen, but I’d say VA today is basically where MD was in 1992. I’m not even sure if a governor Hogan could have won reelection in VA in 2017 had he scraped by in 2013 (assuming a scenario in which governors can serve consecutive terms).

[brucejoel99]

Obviously Missouri voting D

[Tartarus Sauce]

Much, much easier to envision a plausible path for a Democratic candidate in MO (requires population growth + an utter Republican collapse in support in the Kansas City/St. Louis areas). VA is about as likely to vote for a Republican for president as MD.

I mostly agree with this.  It's an elasticity issue.  Southern states seem to only flip once every 30+ years and when they go they are quickly gone at every level.  Midwestern states can more easily go for the "wrong" party in a landslide win even if it doesn't mean any kind of long term trend (IN 2008, MO 1980's). 

Also think there's a more plausible path for the GOP to flip MD than VA.  Hogan #'s in the rural areas + Baltimore starts to swing like the Detroit area. 

At the federal level? Not a chance in hell. Maryland is among the last five states that would flip at the federal level during a Republican landslide.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Missouri has trended more Republican since 2000 than Virginia has trended Democratic


in 2000:

Missouri voted 3.8 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
Virginia voted 8.5 points more Republican than the nation as whole


in 2016:

Missouri voted 20.6 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
Virginia voted 3.2 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole



So since 2000: Missouri has trended 16.8 points Republican while Virginia has trended 11.7 points Democratic
 

[One Term Floridian]

Tough call but in a presidential race, I’ll have to go with VA going R. Missouri Dems still remain in better shape than the VA GOP as a whole though.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Virginia votes Republican.

Some John Kasich type would win Virginia over a Sanders Democrat.

How?

[Mr. Smith]

Virginia has still been more Republican than the nation as a whole for the past six cycles.

Missouri hasn't been more Democratic since 1992.