Data for Progress Consideration Survey: Biden, Warren & Buttigieg ahead

[Tender Branson]

Biden: +29
Warren: +27
Buttigieg: +17





https://www.dataforprogress.org/presidential-primary-memo

[President Johnson]

Bernard is too divisive. I'd still support him as general election candidate since Trump must be defeated under any circumstances. Biden is the safe choice and can get things done as president.

[Eraserhead]

Pointless poll.

[Sorenroy]

Bad title. I get Biden and Warren, but why include Buttigieg and not Harris when Harris is only behind Buttigieg by one point? Especially since Harris makes a good cutoff because there is another eight point gap between her and the next candidate.

[Simfan34]

What a poll for de Blasio-- he has the biggest net negative of anyone and he hasn't announced yet. More proof that, just about literally, the only person that wants de Blasio to run is de Blasio.

[Mr. Morden]

What a poll for de Blasio-- he has the biggest net negative of anyone and he hasn't announced yet. More proof that, just about literally, the only person that wants de Blasio to run is de Blasio.

Yeah, I've noticed that de Blasio's favorable #s among Democrats are pretty terrible.  E.g., here's a Monmouth poll of Iowa from a few weeks ago that has him at 24% favorable / 24% unfavorable *among Democrats*:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=317806.msg6754228#msg6754228

No one else in that poll with name recognition that high is anywhere close to having unfavorable #s as high as their favorable #s.  I'm actually not sure what exactly de Blasio has done to alienate his own party so much.

[Senator Incitatus]

88% of Democrats say they won't not vote for Julián Castro! Landslide!

[Sestak]

What on earth kind of polling methodology is this?

[izixs]

What on earth kind of polling methodology is this?

The sort the gives us a little more insight into the flexibility of the current electorate. Given that only a few will even get past Iowa, showing us who might even be considered is actually super valuable information. As more candidates drop out those that are considered are much more likely to gain support than those not considered or rejected totally. Combine this with polling of the race of a more traditional mode and we can make some observations about where support might end up once the field narrows.

Given Biden is in the 30s-40s right now post announcement he seems on top of course in the head to heads, but his growth potential beyond this level seems only able to get him shy of 50% if all those considering him stay with him or sign up post Iowa/New Hampshire. Meanwhile Warren has what seems like a huge potential poll of voters who would consider her as she' maybe hitting 10% right now but up to 40% might swing her way. Of course some of that support might require a drop out by Sanders, which is very unlikely (I could go into why I specifically see that as likely even if he gets trounced in early states but that's a whole other discussion) so there is of course other structural limits at play.

Speaking of Sanders, as he's generally the #2 guy in polls, it shouldn't be surprised he's in the top 3 here. But unlike Warrens x4 potential, his is only x2 and with much higher not considering. A terrible place to work one's way up from if one wishes to secure a majority out of several second place finishes. Buttigieg and Harris are in similar positions next with nearly identical numbers here and in more traditional polls. And this puts them in a spot perhaps between Sanders and Warren as far as growth potential goes. They can push up but would require a great deal more luck and effort to turn the considering vote into solid support and to expand potential support base. Beto and Booker are a little worse off each than those two, kind of leaning on needing a miracle to get people interested at this point territory. And then there's the rest who... honestly should maybe not even bother if they can't get a good break after the first debate or two. If at this point there's already more or equal number of folks not considering you as considering you, your change of fortune needs to come early, fast, and effective. If you don't get it, then drop out, run for a different office and maybe try again in (hopefully) 8 years after making a name for yourself being an effective politician who'd make a great president.