IA-SEN 2020: Ernst +4 over Generic Democrat

[SnowLabrador]

The numbers are Ernst 48, Generic Democrat 44. It comes from here: https://qctimes.com/opinion/columnists/release-the-full-mueller-report-majority-of-iowans-say/article_9d79e5f4-8dc2-53f4-bdba-681e02b22b8a.html

I think Ernst is leading by much more than four points. For one, Generic D polls well, but has never won an election. Also, polls in Iowa tend to underestimate Republicans.

[ElectionsGuy]

52% of Iowans won't vote for Joni. Toss-up!

[😥]

Lean R for Senate election
Tossup for Presidential election
Lean D for Presidential election with Biden as Democratic nominee

[Zaybay]

Lean R for now, but this will certainly be one of the senate races to watch out for.

[Xing]

If "Generic Democrat" can make pigs squeal too, Toss-Up.

[Frenchrepublican]

More seriously, it’s not a bad poll for her considering that it’s coming from PPP and that they polled her against a non flawed generic D.

Gun to my head Ernst wins reelection 54/45 next year

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, Ernst, like MT Treasurer said, isn't assured a victory. Calling Scholten, get in.

[OSR stands with Israel]

But Iowa is more Republican than Texas and Ohio and is Safe R: TNVolunteer

[Frenchrepublican]

But Iowa is more Republican than Texas and Ohio and is Safe R: TNVolunteer

Ernst is not much more vulnerable than Cornyn in my opinion

[Frenchrepublican]

Can someone post the PDF?

[Zaybay]

Some interesting things to note in this poll:

Ernst is running even with Trump in this poll, 48% to 48%, while Generic D is at 48% in the presidential race, and 44% in the Senate Race.

Approvals:
49/40 Ernst (+9)
51/42 Grassley (+11)
47/39 Reynolds (+8)
49/49 Trump (+/- 0)

[Young Conservative]

TBH +4 against a generic Democrat is a really good result considering generic Democrat is the most well-liked voting option in the country.

[Sestak]

Lean D

[All Along The Watchtower]

Strong D

[SnowLabrador]

Yeah, Generic #'s >> any actual candidate.  Only way this flips is in an economic crisis.

[OneJ]

Yeah I don’t think Ernst is in any real danger and probably won’t experience much danger in the future, I’m afraid.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R.

Race is winnable for Dems in a good night and a high-quality candidate.

[Ronnie]

I'm confused that anyone in this thread is remotely optimistic about a Dem challenger's chances when she's beating Dem Jesus by 4 points.

[Zaybay]

>Leads Generic D by only 4 points
>Has a Net Approval of +9
>2 Years out from the election
>The Election is in IA, an even state for Trump

"Yeah, this is Safe R. Nothing can possibly change in favor of the Ds from this point on. Might as well pack up and go home."

If y'all have ever seen any political race in the past, you should know that factors can change about a race. At this point in time, Heidi, Donnelly, McCaskill, Landrieu, Coakley(both times), Faso, etc, etc, were leading, so perhaps we shouldnt be taking this poll as a sign the race is Safe R(which I dont even understand how you can make such an observation, especially with the data present).

[smoltchanov]

Probably - between Lean R and Likely R (closer to first) for now. But everything may change in almost 1,5 years... The problem for Democrats - real candidate is, frequently, much less popular, then "generic"....

[Frenchrepublican]

>Leads Generic D by only 4 points
>Has a Net Approval of +9
>2 Years out from the election
>The Election is in IA, an even state for Trump

"Yeah, this is Safe R. Nothing can possibly change in favor of the Ds from this point on. Might as well pack up and go home."

If y'all have ever seen any political race in the past, you should know that factors can change about a race. At this point in time, Heidi, Donnelly, McCaskill, Landrieu, Coakley(both times), Faso, etc, etc, were leading, so perhaps we shouldnt be taking this poll as a sign the race is Safe R(which I dont even understand how you can make such an observation, especially with the data present).

WTF ?! What a stupid comparison, all these D senators were running in very conservative states and they simply lost once their liberal positions were exposed to their mostly conservative constituents, IA is a center right state and Ernst fits very well this state, if you really believe that Dems have a realistic chance of winning this race you are a fool

[here2view]

Likely R, but could move to Lean R depending on circumstances.

I disagree with calling this Safe R right now, although it could transition to that stage.

[2016]

What a garbarge Poll! Axne, Finkenauer, T. Vilsack, C. Vilsack, Scholten not running. No way Ernst is going to lose against a C-Lister.

[DrScholl]

I thought she'd be leading by 20% considering how people say she's the amazing person that can't be beat. If Trump loses, she loses because there isn't much ticket splitting left in any state especially in a presidential election.

[Brittain33]

I am skeptical that Trump is really at 49% approval in Iowa.