IA-SEN 2020: Ernst +4 over Generic Democrat

[Frenchrepublican]

I am skeptical that Trump is really at 49% approval in Iowa.

Trump won IA 51/42 when he lost the PV 46/48, considering that he has now a 45/52 approval rate, a 49/49 approval rate in Iowa is likely
I think that on this forum dems are generally speaking far too omptimistic about Iowa

[Brittain33]

You have to cherry pick polls to find him having a 45 approval rating. The last several polls on 538, minus Rasmussen's nonsense, is 42-43.

[SWE]

Closer than I'd expect but she's still the favorite

[SnowLabrador]

Closer than I'd expect but she's still the favorite

Well, you've got to remember that polls in Iowa underestimate Republicans by like 5-6%. The polls had Hubbell narrowly winning last year, and instead he narrowly lost.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She is favored like Collins, as long as no one is willing to challenge her. Since Biden is the nominee, there can be a wave; as a result Perdue, Cornyn, McSally and Tillis are targetted instead.  A 304-234 electoral map can net gains in red states.

[UncleSam]

Likely R, but could move to Lean R depending on circumstances.

I disagree with calling this Safe R right now, although it could transition to that stage.

I agree with this, though I’d say it is more like ‘it will move to Lean R if Dems decide to challenge it, but they reasonably might decide to spend resources on better targets’.

Ernst and Collins are both likely to win by underwhelming margins imo - probably like ~6 points. Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina will be the senate battlegrounds imo

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one wants to challenge Ernst or Collins

[pbrower2a]

This is a weak lead for someone who got elected in a Republican wave year. Iowa is a legitimate swing state (just look at the House races in 2018). She has a colorful persona, but she has been voting the Party line almost all the time. A colorful persona might be good enough for one election, but after that, achievements and votes matter.

To be sure, she is not in the same position as Susan Collins in Maine, but Susan Collins' approval has dropped dramatically. I see her vulnerable to a candidate who knows how to campaign and can piece together an attractive alternative. She did vote for Supreme Court Justice Bart Kavanaugh.