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September 17, 2019, 05:42:15 pm
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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted
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Author Topic: North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted  (Read 16861 times)
Nyvin
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« Reply #275 on: Today at 02:50:19 pm »
« edited: Today at 04:45:28 pm by Nyvin »

Given the restraints put in place by the court,  the only areas on the Senate Map I can see where there's potential for improvement for the Democrats would be Forsythe and Wake,  along with keeping as much of High Point in SD-27 as possible.  

That basically gives Democrats 24 "winnable" seats:

5 in Wake
5 in Mecklenburg
2 in Durham
2 in Guilford
2 in Forsythe/Davie
2 in Cumberland
2 in rural northeast
1 in Orange/Chatham
1 in Pitt
1 in Buncombe
1 in New Hanover

I don't see anywhere on the map they can get the last 1 or 2 seats (depending if they get Lt Gov) with the redrawing given what the court order says.

With the current map I'd see them having probably 23 seats - all the ones they currently do now plus SD-39 and SD-18.   The only one really out of reach is the Forsythe/Davie one (SD-31 I think, it's tough but not impossible).    

The dem margins in the Wake County districts and SD-27 could be improved to not be so close though.

Edit - Part of the court order is that the new districts "Improve compactness" which the new SD-31 in Forsyth/Davie certainly doesn't do at all.   I won't be surprised to see the court strike that particular district down and draw a new one that's easily more compact (and more competitive).   That would make for 24 seats the Democrats can win next year.
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