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October 13, 2019, 07:40:03 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
  2020 PA State Legislature Megathread
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Poll
Question: Which party will control the state legislature in 2021?
#1Democrats will flip both chambers  
#2Democrats will flip the House, but not the Senate  
#3Democrats will flip the Senate, but not the House  
#4Republicans will retain both chambers  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 34

Author Topic: 2020 PA State Legislature Megathread  (Read 3511 times)
ctherainbow
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« Reply #50 on: July 27, 2019, 01:31:55 am »

State House Update Districts 101-203:

District 114:

This district was already on the low end of Likely D, as Kosierowski likely overperformed against her special election opponent after he was found to have made Islamophobic Facebook posts, but the state GOP has revealed that they'll be targeting her seat with ad campaigns, and I know they'd like to make inroads against the relatively strong Lackawanna County Democratic machine.  I'm gonna nudge this rating over the edge into Lean D territory, but I still expect Kosierowski to hold this seat without that brutal of a fight.

Likely D --> Lean D

District 119:

Another NEPA seat held by Dems, this one is trending away from the incumbent, and has also been placed on the state GOP hit list.  This one looks a lot more vulnerable, and Trump support in Luzerne County is at scary levels, so a general election featuring Trump will likely drive turnout in this district against Mullery, this district's incumbent.

Tilt D --> Tossup
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #51 on: July 31, 2019, 09:17:21 pm »

State House Update District 104:

While at Harrisburg Pride over the weekend, I got to meet Jesse Gantt, the vice-president of a local school board who is running against Sue Helm in the 104th House District.  A realtor and self-proclaimed "huge NASA nerd", he doesn't seem like the strongest possible candidate for the seat, which Helm has held since 2006.  Helm, who usually wins about a 10 point margin in her re-election campaigns, still looks the clear favorite to retain her seat this cycle.

Lean R --> Lean R
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #52 on: August 11, 2019, 05:06:34 am »
« Edited: August 11, 2019, 05:11:55 am by ctherainbow »

State Senate District 17 Update:

Union organizer and activist Linda Fields, who drew significant visibility last cycle for her 5-point loss to Republican incumbent Bob Mensch in State Senate District 24, has decided to carpetbag to District 17 and primary Daylin Leach, bringing his number of primary challengers so far to three.  I'm not sure the Dem leadership of the 17th District will throw their support behind a carpetbagger, but honestly who knows.  This primary is shaping up to be a mess.

https://wskg.org/news/fellow-dems-challenging-leach-promise-similar-policies-but-a-change-in-culture/

Likely D --> Likely D
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #53 on: August 25, 2019, 03:10:29 am »

Updates:


State Senate District 15:

Republican incumbent John DiSanto, who has pushed for school property tax elimination, is reportedly delinquent to the tune of over $14,000 in property taxes on acreage that he owns with his brother.  While he claims that the bill was simply "overlooked", it's not a good look, and will provide his eventual Democratic challenger with another puddle of mud to sling from.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2019/08/pa-state-senator-brother-to-pay-delinquent-14k-property-tax-bill.html

This news in and of itself didn't provide enough impetus for me to move the race, but there's a highly competitive US Congressional race between current Rep Scott Perry and Auditor General Eugene DePasquale shaping up in the US Congressional District that covers the Dauphin County portion of District 15.  Increased turnout from another aggressive campaign in the more heavily Democratic portion of the district should benefit DiSanto's challenger, if even a little, so out of an abundance of caution, I'm shifting this race to Tossup.

Tilt R --> Tossup


State House District 44:

2018 candidate and eventual loser Michele Knoll has announced that she'll challenge current incumbent Valerie Gaydos again in 2020.  Doesn't change much yet for me in terms of prediction; Knoll doesn't come off as a played-out retread candidate, and her name recognition in the district could help, but Gaydos will also have two years to entrench herself.

https://sewickley.triblive.com/user-submitted-content/michele-knoll-announces-candidacy/

Tilt R --> Tilt R
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #54 on: September 04, 2019, 09:43:34 pm »

State House Update:

District 85:

The special election went pretty much as expected; the Dem challenger closed the margins a little bit in the special election last month, but nowhere near enough to even be close to competitive.  Republican Daniel Rowe held this seat for the state GOP, and I don't expect it to be competitive in 2020, either.

https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives_District_85

Strong R --> Strong R
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Warren/Buttigieg 2020: Make America Normal Again!
20RP12
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« Reply #55 on: September 18, 2019, 08:25:48 am »

State Senator Mike Folmer (R-Lebanon) charged with child porn possession
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LCameronOR
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« Reply #56 on: September 18, 2019, 08:32:20 am »

Democrats won't be able to pick this one up. SD-48 will elect another Republican after this (has been Solid R since the 1960s).
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Warren/Buttigieg 2020: Make America Normal Again!
20RP12
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« Reply #57 on: September 18, 2019, 09:00:33 am »


Democrats won't be able to pick this one up. SD-48 will elect another Republican after this (has been Solid R since the 1960s).

Well yeah, unfortunately.
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Jacob Wohl
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« Reply #58 on: September 18, 2019, 01:50:20 pm »


When I was browsing Reddit and saw the article title, but without the party ID, I was 99% sure it was a Republican.

B--b-b--ut PizzaGate!
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ctherainbow
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« Reply #59 on: October 03, 2019, 11:29:55 pm »
« Edited: October 03, 2019, 11:36:11 pm by ctherainbow »

Sorry the updates have fallen off, you guys.  Have had a ton of personal stuff to attend to.
Anyway, here are some State Senate updates:


State Senate District 9:

Endangered Republican Thomas Killion has gotten another challenger in what should be one of PA Election Night 2020's top races to watch.  Local labor organizer and plumber John Kane has announced his intent to seek the Democratic nomination, and this race, as PA Dems' best pickup opportunity in the State Senate, should continue to attract more challengers to Killion as we get closer to 2020.

https://www.delcotimes.com/news/local/labor-leader-kane-eyes-dem-nod-to-challenge-killion/article_70497afe-e61e-11e9-ba86-dfb35f3d830b.html

Tilt D --> Tilt D


State Senate District 48:

In a seat that wasn't scheduled to be in play until 2022, the resignation of former State Senator Mike Folmer over child porn charges has thrown this seat into contention, with both parties scrambling to field candidates for the January 14th special election.  This badly gerrymandered district encompasses Lebanon County, as well as portions of Dauphin and York Counties, and is a very Republican district, voting nearly two-thirds Republican in 2018.  Barring a miracle, this district should stay Republican.  So far there are three announced Republican candidates for the district, including Lebanon County District Attorney Dave Arnold, State House Representative Russ Diamond, and think-tank CEO Matthew Brouillette.  If Diamond were to win this Senate seat and his House seat were vacated, it would also likely remain Republican, as it is a very conservative district.

http://pressandjournal.com/stories/third-republican-declares-candidacy-for-folmers-state-senate-seat,66762

Strong R
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #60 on: Today at 03:34:02 pm »

Under a fair map democrats would likely be favored to gain one or both chambers. The gerrymandering will become much less severe come 2022 due to Wolf winning reelection
D favor gerrymandering
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Lfromnj stands with Sanchez.
lfromnj
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« Reply #61 on: Today at 03:52:01 pm »

Btw whatd the odds that Cambrra county democrat in like a +30 trump seat wins?. 1%?
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